DaveCinzano
WATCH OUT, GEORGE, HE'S GOT A SCREWDRIVER!
For posterity
Sadly not in a Thunderdome sense
Sadly not in a Thunderdome sense
Who is going to win the 2016 Tory leadership election?
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
does she need to? last two after three rounds is all that matters.
Lurdan
old wave
Absolutely - only stressing the size of May's lead. The real fun will begin now as campaigning starts aiming at members rather than MPs. Nothing guaranteed.
But the lead is irrelevant - we've seen how little party membership really care about what the party tops want only last week (and last year in Labour). Top two is all that matters.
Lurdan
old wave
Thought I'd just agreed with you that who gets onto the members ballot is whats important.
However there is no equivalent to the three pound labour vote, and I doubt that Tory party members are as detached from the party leadership as referendum voters were from parties. Unlikely to be much of a 'fuck you' protest vote I'd have thought.
It's also still possible for tactical voting to keep Leadsom off the final ballot and the size of May's lead might well encourage MPs to engage in that given that she seems safe.
Could still go any way.
Lurdan
old wave
Certainly anythings possible. But are you entirely discounting that YouGov Tory members poll today ? Gove managed to shoot himself in both feet in assassinating Boris and has a pretty steep hill to climb now.Tactical voting for Gove to avoid Leadsom making the last two, then Gove wins when it goes to the members. You mark my words.
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
Tactical voting for Gove to avoid Leadsom making the last two, then Gove wins when it goes to the members. You mark my words.
I'm not sure. I thought that Gove was more popular with Tories than he seems to be, or at least more popular than he has become after knifing the blonde toff.
weltweit
Well-Known Member
I thought Fox had high tailed it
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Decided there was no way he could claw back enough votes.
Raheem
Well-Known Member
Rumour is he's contemplating a sideways move.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Two men Bremain, one man leave
DaveCinzano
WATCH OUT, GEORGE, HE'S GOT A SCREWDRIVER!
MAY TO DISMEMBER
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Yes, the favourite or one who wins the MPs poll rarely wins the members vote, but there's a good chance she will. Gove's a duplicitous weirdo and that taxdodging Leadson, well, who cares.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Fucking hell, imagine trying to put lipstick on those! Like planting a flag in a jellyfish.
coley
Well-Known Member
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
The Daily Mail suggest he lacks discretion over sensitive matters when pissed:
Michael Gove untrustworthy gossip 'particularly when drink is taken'
Clearly, a case of loose lips sink ships.
Michael Gove untrustworthy gossip 'particularly when drink is taken'
Clearly, a case of loose lips sink ships.
coley
Well-Known Member
Tactical voting for Gove to avoid Leadsom making the last two, then Gove wins when it goes to the members. You mark my words.
Naw, the apparent backstabbing of Boris will bugger any chance Gove had, though, tactical voting of the TPP may leave Gove on the final ticket which will give it to May, upsetting a lot of Tories, got a feeling a lot of the leavers have been totally outflanked and as a result it will end up with a civil war between the TPP and TCP, that will end up making Corbyns difficulties and John Majors spot of 'Maastricht' bother looking positively Benign in comparison.
A delightful thought at any other time, but disastrous at present,given we need a bit of political stability at this present juncture.
DaveCinzano
WATCH OUT, GEORGE, HE'S GOT A SCREWDRIVER!
Raheem
Well-Known Member
Theresa Island
Lurdan
old wave
Gove sets out the uh, "vision thing"
Leaving the EU is not an end, it’s a beginning - Times (paywalled)
Michael Gove
Reminds me of this piece by (yuk) John Rentoul
Is it really all doom and gloom for Blairites? Perhaps they should realise they have a champion in Michael Gove - Independent (Feb 16 2016)
Obviously Gove's article is a pitch aimed at MPs to persuade them to put him on the final members ballot, and to indicate that he is available for a big job if that doesn't succeed.
But it also starkly sets out the differences between him and Leadsom, who has made some populist sounding promises but is fundamentally a 'remove the constraints on wealth creation' and 'reaffirm traditional values' kind of Tory, for whom the real social mobility problem is that there's probably a bit too much of it. Their core appeal is to different sections of the Tory party. Add in all the other issues - leadership skills, presentational abilities, perceived competence, public image, the gaping wound that Gove has inflicted on himself, the underlying post-referendum "shit got real" factor and so on, and its not difficult to see the challenge the hard-Brexiteers will have in marshalling support behind one anti-May candidate. Interesting to note that Liam Fox has declared for May.
Leaving the EU is not an end, it’s a beginning - Times (paywalled)
Michael Gove
I’ve campaigned for change in our relationship with Europe for more than 20 years, so I was delighted with the result on June 23. But I know the demand in our society for change goes beyond our relationship with Europe.
People who voted to leave don’t just want a sovereign nation, able to control its own borders and manage its own trade with the rest of the world. They want justice within our country too. Social and economic justice.
Social justice has been a defining mission of the Conservative Party since 2010. Under David Cameron’s leadership, Iain Duncan Smith and I set out to improve life chances for young people and adults through the education and welfare systems. Under Stephen Crabb and Nicky Morgan those reforms have accelerated. We as a government should be proud of the progress that has been made. But we have much further to go.
At this moment of change — this hinge in history — we have the opportunity not just to remake our political structures but also to forge a new social settlement.
We can show that our country has risen to the challenges of globalisation better than any in the world by ensuring that every citizen is valued, every soul is precious and every talent deployed to make our country stronger.
In order to ensure the abilities of every citizen are harnessed to the goal of greater fairness for all, the new prime minister must focus relentlessly on the deep problems which scar our society: the stubborn reoffending rates among former prisoners; the tragedy of low school attainment among large sections of the population, especially poor white boys in coastal towns and cities; the scourge of domestic violence; the emerging epidemic of mental ill health; and most of all — modern Britain’s greatest shame — the collapse of social mobility.
As I have argued over the years, Conservatives must be warriors for the dispossessed. But we must not think that it is only a minority in the toughest circumstances we need to act to help. We also need to make our economy work far better for those on average and below average incomes.
Because the British contract has been broken. The basic principle that if you work hard, you will prosper; if your children try hard at school, they will get a good job and own their own home no longer applies. Today, for too many of our neighbours, the reality of economic life is low wages on zero hours contracts, and zero hope of home ownership.
The postwar dream is unfulfilled in our generation. There are two reasons for this, one social and one economic. What makes life difficult for people isn’t just the lack of money. It’s the lack of social capital, the network of trust and help which calls out the best in each of us and makes us a strong support for others. This applies to everyone. Social capital is the best bulwark against poverty and the best driver of social mobility. Indeed, responsibility to others — to the common good — is the best foundation of a strong economy.
Let me take one example. At the moment, children in care often lack advantages the rest of us take for granted. Young people leaving care are three times more likely to be not in work, education and training than their peers. So, as a small practical step to this broader goal, we should explore whether employers who take on a young person who has grown up in care should be rewarded through the tax system, with a holiday from national insurance contributions for that worker.
As this suggests, the other great challenge is economic. We need to rethink what economic activity is really for. Profit is the great driver of innovation and growth, but it must not be the sole purpose of a business. When a company or its shareholders only pursue the bottom line, when the only mission of the enterprise is to profit, then its original mission — to make, to grow, to make life more liveable for more people — is lost. The boss of the US car manufacturer who once said “We don’t make cars, we make money” disgraced his company, and disgraced capitalism.
Social and economic reform demand careful work. But above this, we need policies that respect social solidarity and good citizenship. The rewards in this life should not only go to the fastest, the strongest and the most talented — but also to the kindest, the bravest and the gentlest.
I know that politics is personal. I’m in politics because of the people who showed me kindness and gentleness from the beginning — the parents who adopted me when I was four months old. They gave me the love and care that enabled me to enjoy great opportunities. So I know that each of us needs the right support if we’re to make the most of our talents. Social justice is personal to me.
I did not campaign for Britain to leave the EU as an end in itself. Voting to leave is the means to an end, which is the real mission of my career in politics: to make this country the best place in the world in which to grow up, to get on, to make a contribution. That is the greatness we should aspire to, and one that leaving the EU makes possible.
People who voted to leave don’t just want a sovereign nation, able to control its own borders and manage its own trade with the rest of the world. They want justice within our country too. Social and economic justice.
Social justice has been a defining mission of the Conservative Party since 2010. Under David Cameron’s leadership, Iain Duncan Smith and I set out to improve life chances for young people and adults through the education and welfare systems. Under Stephen Crabb and Nicky Morgan those reforms have accelerated. We as a government should be proud of the progress that has been made. But we have much further to go.
At this moment of change — this hinge in history — we have the opportunity not just to remake our political structures but also to forge a new social settlement.
We can show that our country has risen to the challenges of globalisation better than any in the world by ensuring that every citizen is valued, every soul is precious and every talent deployed to make our country stronger.
In order to ensure the abilities of every citizen are harnessed to the goal of greater fairness for all, the new prime minister must focus relentlessly on the deep problems which scar our society: the stubborn reoffending rates among former prisoners; the tragedy of low school attainment among large sections of the population, especially poor white boys in coastal towns and cities; the scourge of domestic violence; the emerging epidemic of mental ill health; and most of all — modern Britain’s greatest shame — the collapse of social mobility.
As I have argued over the years, Conservatives must be warriors for the dispossessed. But we must not think that it is only a minority in the toughest circumstances we need to act to help. We also need to make our economy work far better for those on average and below average incomes.
Because the British contract has been broken. The basic principle that if you work hard, you will prosper; if your children try hard at school, they will get a good job and own their own home no longer applies. Today, for too many of our neighbours, the reality of economic life is low wages on zero hours contracts, and zero hope of home ownership.
The postwar dream is unfulfilled in our generation. There are two reasons for this, one social and one economic. What makes life difficult for people isn’t just the lack of money. It’s the lack of social capital, the network of trust and help which calls out the best in each of us and makes us a strong support for others. This applies to everyone. Social capital is the best bulwark against poverty and the best driver of social mobility. Indeed, responsibility to others — to the common good — is the best foundation of a strong economy.
Let me take one example. At the moment, children in care often lack advantages the rest of us take for granted. Young people leaving care are three times more likely to be not in work, education and training than their peers. So, as a small practical step to this broader goal, we should explore whether employers who take on a young person who has grown up in care should be rewarded through the tax system, with a holiday from national insurance contributions for that worker.
As this suggests, the other great challenge is economic. We need to rethink what economic activity is really for. Profit is the great driver of innovation and growth, but it must not be the sole purpose of a business. When a company or its shareholders only pursue the bottom line, when the only mission of the enterprise is to profit, then its original mission — to make, to grow, to make life more liveable for more people — is lost. The boss of the US car manufacturer who once said “We don’t make cars, we make money” disgraced his company, and disgraced capitalism.
Social and economic reform demand careful work. But above this, we need policies that respect social solidarity and good citizenship. The rewards in this life should not only go to the fastest, the strongest and the most talented — but also to the kindest, the bravest and the gentlest.
I know that politics is personal. I’m in politics because of the people who showed me kindness and gentleness from the beginning — the parents who adopted me when I was four months old. They gave me the love and care that enabled me to enjoy great opportunities. So I know that each of us needs the right support if we’re to make the most of our talents. Social justice is personal to me.
I did not campaign for Britain to leave the EU as an end in itself. Voting to leave is the means to an end, which is the real mission of my career in politics: to make this country the best place in the world in which to grow up, to get on, to make a contribution. That is the greatness we should aspire to, and one that leaving the EU makes possible.
(...)
Reminds me of this piece by (yuk) John Rentoul
Is it really all doom and gloom for Blairites? Perhaps they should realise they have a champion in Michael Gove - Independent (Feb 16 2016)
Obviously Gove's article is a pitch aimed at MPs to persuade them to put him on the final members ballot, and to indicate that he is available for a big job if that doesn't succeed.
But it also starkly sets out the differences between him and Leadsom, who has made some populist sounding promises but is fundamentally a 'remove the constraints on wealth creation' and 'reaffirm traditional values' kind of Tory, for whom the real social mobility problem is that there's probably a bit too much of it. Their core appeal is to different sections of the Tory party. Add in all the other issues - leadership skills, presentational abilities, perceived competence, public image, the gaping wound that Gove has inflicted on himself, the underlying post-referendum "shit got real" factor and so on, and its not difficult to see the challenge the hard-Brexiteers will have in marshalling support behind one anti-May candidate. Interesting to note that Liam Fox has declared for May.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
au contrairé - polling of party members puts May at about 60%, and as importantly, that 60% is spread out (if not perfectly evenly) throughout the various wings of the party membership. she gets votes from people who are effectively 'Kippers and votes from people who could have walked into the Blair/Brown/Miliband Labour Party, and lots of votes from those in between.
Leadsom is on about 28-30% within the party membership, but her voters are almost exclusively in the driest, most swivel-eyed wing of the party.
Leadsom is the Corbynite candidate, though even if she were elected, there isn't anywhere near enough personal or political hostility within either the PCP or Constituancy parties for - for example - half the Tory MP's to refuse to serve in her cabinet. it wouldn't be plain sailing by any means, she's not popular or much respected among the the PCP, and the media don't like her and have dug up enough bad news to feast on for some time, but she and the the rest of the PCP aren't sufficiently politically divorced that they couldn't form a government and carry out a limited programme. noting of course that a limited programme is all theres going to be time for - Brexit will take up the overwhelming proportion of parliamentary time.
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