Who is going to win the 2016 Tory leadership election?

[Balbi]

The Tories are going to choose Leadsom, aren't they? They're going to go for a Corbyn candidate

 

[J Ed]

Dunno. They're both fucking Tories. May would be continuity-Cameron, I guess, while Leadsom is potentially something more radical. Again like Thatcher, she's the radical option.

Workhouses, called workhouses, with uniforms and the like? That's exaggerating a little, but that's the kind of thing. At the very least, as a matter of principle and personal pride, she would be revoking a goodly sum of EU labour legislation. Like Thatcher with the Unions.

Maybe having an undisguised bigot right-winger that enacts neoliberal policies would be better than a Cameroonian implementing the same policies but with a centrist legitimacy conferred by the media and other parts of the political class. I don't know either.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Maybe having an undisguised bigot right-winger that enacts neoliberal policies would be better than a Cameroonian implementing the same policies but with a centrist legitimacy conferred by the media and other parts of the political class. I don't know either.

Maybe. But the absence of that centrist legitimacy conferred by the media didn't stop Thatcher.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The Tories are going to choose Leadsom, aren't they? They're going to go for a Corbyn candidate

You laugh from a distance. She gets straight in as PM.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I'm uneasy about comparisons with Corbyn . But yes, she could win by appealing to the r/w majority in the Tory party in a similar way to how Corbyn appealed to the l/w majority in the labour party. They don't even have to pick her as a potential person to beat Labour. She goes straight into power. It appears to be an electorally free pass to pick someone as nasty as they like.

 

[J Ed]

I'm uneasy about comparisons with Corbyn . But yes, she could win by appealing to the r/w majority in the Tory party in a similar way to how Corbyn appealed to the l/w majority in the labour party. They don't even have to pick her as a potential person to beat Labour. She goes straight into power. It appears to be an electorally free pass to pick someone as nasty as they like.

You would hope that it would at least make a 2020 Labour victory more likely, then again I am sure that the bulk of the PLP would rather have a right-wing Tory government than Corbyn as PM so it might just make them re-double their sabotage efforts

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Labour should be demanding a general election daily. But oh, look what they're doing.

 

[SpookyFrank]

It appears to be an electorally free pass to pick someone as nasty as they like.

This is why I'm concerned Leadsom may actually win.

 

[brogdale]

This is why I'm concerned Leadsom may actually win.

But, to do so her campaign will have to overcome the 'unity'/'peace' offering from May. Clearly May's campaign will constantly signal the (false) prospect of her ability to arbitrate harmonious resolution of the decades old factional war within the party...and the threat of it continuing under a zealous leavist leader. I'm sure that, as the campaign progresses, we'll see May hint at the threat of a Corbyn-style impasse between Leader & PP if Leadsom were to prevail. Maybe the present state of the LP will assist May; when those vermin members actually come to put the tick in the box...that prospect might well be going through their heads.
Of course, that's partly what the 199 was all about.

 

[big eejit]

Why do Tories adore such obvious liars?

AAV: Why do Tories adore the professional bullshitter so much?

 

[Biscuitician]

Why? The Labour MPship clearly isn't representative of Labour membership.

I have no reason to think that the membership favours AL, do you?

 

[Libertad]

Posted in Twitter last night this is purported to be Leadsom's campaign strategy:

 

[Kaka Tim]

Posted in Twitter last night this is purported to be Leadsom's campaign strategy:

"trigger article 50 in September" that could clinch it for Leadshom if May doesn't match that pledge. The brexiters are deeply (and correctly) suspicious that there is going to be serious backsliding on the referendum result.

 

[bi0boy]

"trigger article 50 in September" that could clinch it for Leadshom if May doesn't match that pledge. The brexiters are deeply (and correctly) suspicious that there is going to be serious backsliding on the referendum result.

Militant brexiters are a loud but minority faction, even within the group of Tory party members.

 

[big eejit]

"trigger article 50 in September" that could clinch it for Leadshom if May doesn't match that pledge. The brexiters are deeply (and correctly) suspicious that there is going to be serious backsliding on the referendum result.

And this is the main problem. At a time when we need calm reflection and safe pair of hands, this competition is forcing the contestants to pledge themselves to extreme action to win it.

Which is why we need an election to give a legitimate mandate to a Brexit PM.

Not someone 'elected' on the back of rash promises to the most extreme group of people in the country.

 

[8den]

Tory Leadership election

 

[weltweit]

The next prime minister will preside over divorce proceedings with the EU, and the deal reached will affect the UK for decades.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I was feeling really smug about putting May on at 6/1 weeks ago but I'm starting to wonder whether the membership would actually go for Leadsom. I guess that would further intensify the divisions in the Tories...?

 

[Anju]

Posted in Twitter last night this is purported to be Leadsom's campaign strategy:

The war on political correctness mentioned there concerns me because that is likely to lead to increasing the amount of abuse towards other nationalities, genders and sexualities.

Also, a war on PC will definitely resonate with the membership and many non members. I have seen a lot of PC gone mad comments on news sites and in social media posts.

Normally I would just be thinking oh well but her straight into power is definitely an oh fuck moment.

 

[ska invita]

youtube jsut recommended me this

 

[NoBystander]

Why would you want someone, less than experienced / competent, in charge of the most important negotiations the country will have?

1 a speedy election is inevitable if Leadsom wins
2 moderate/remain Tories vote Lib Dem
3 restoring Labours advantage in England under FPTP
4 leading to a resounding Labour victory
5 after a Labour leadership challenge which does for Corbyn what Benn did for Kinnock

 

[brogdale]

I reckon from the original poll not-bono-ever might be on the clever £ this time around.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Who was that again. Javid?

 

[brogdale]

We've seen the future and....

 

[Teaboy]

Not the dream team of Javid and Leadsom?

 

[brogdale]

Not the dream team of Javid and Leadsom?

"dream"

 

[moochedit]

*votes may in the poll to look clever*

 

[brogdale]

I suppose we need a new thread & poll?

 

[kebabking]

Hunt might a solid bet - he's a Brexit convert, so a foot in both pies, he had some effect at Health against the Treasury, and he's had a win at FCO with that idiot 'researcher' who couldn't speak Arabic.

His big advantage is that he comes over as reasonable, not a swivel-eyed headbanger.

Johnson has no chance. He is loathed by all sides in the PCP, and anyone who was ambiguous about him saw what a dismal foreign secretary he was - lazy, gaff prone, and the most serious offence: implausible.

 

[brogdale]

Hunt might a solid bet - he's a Brexit convert, so a foot in both pies, he had some effect at Health against the Treasury, and he's had a win at FCO with that idiot 'researcher' who couldn't speak Arabic.

His big advantage is that he comes over as reasonable, not a swivel-eyed headbanger.

Johnson has no chance. He is loathed by all sides in the PCP, and anyone who was ambiguous about him saw what a dismal foreign secretary he was - lazy, gaff prone, and the most serious offence: implausible.

New thread now