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Who is going to win the 2016 Tory leadership election?

who is going to win the 2016 tory leadership election?


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Funny, I read that as being sarcastic. That Gove is so clearly a strange little weirdo and poor politician that it'll have people flocking to Labour in droves.
 
I was surprised at Crabb stepping down, thought he was there as a stalking horse to take the second spot, but I guess he didn't have enough votes.

Leadsom is more likely to run new UKIP than the country.
 
Funny, I read that as being sarcastic. That Gove is so clearly a strange little weirdo and poor politician that it'll have people flocking to Labour in droves.
What makes you think Gove is a poor politician? He made mincemeat of education without even breaking a sweat, pushed through the most radical reforms the sector has ever seen. That you don't like the reforms is by the by - Gove was massively successful at what he set out to do. I understand he's very well thought of in Justice too.

Seriously, he's an odd looking freak and talks funny, but he's also by some distance the most capable politician they have.
 
What makes you think Gove is a poor politician? He made mincemeat of education without even breaking a sweat, pushed through the most radical reforms the sector has ever seen. That you don't like the reforms is by the by - Gove was massively successful at what he set out to do. I understand he's very well thought of in Justice too.

Seriously, he's an odd looking freak and talks funny, but he's also by some distance the most capable politician they have.
and he's just pulled a proper backstab on one of the tories most high profile and popular figures. Love him or loathe him (latter obs) it was a cleverly done assasination. Johnosn apeared literally shocked and blindsided
 
What makes you think Gove is a poor politician? He made mincemeat of education without even breaking a sweat, pushed through the most radical reforms the sector has ever seen. That you don't like the reforms is by the by - Gove was massively successful at what he set out to do. I understand he's very well thought of in Justice too.

Seriously, he's an odd looking freak and talks funny, but he's also by some distance the most capable politician they have.
Good politicians listen. Has Gove ever listened to anyone?
 
Do you think the article he wrote in the times today is the work of someone who isn't listening? He listens very carefully.
 
Do you think the article he wrote in the times today is the work of someone who isn't listening? He listens very carefully.
I haven't read it and can't seem to locate it, do you have a link please?
(And yes, I do frequently find that I disagree with him.)
 
Here
Gove sets out the uh, "vision thing"

Leaving the EU is not an end, it’s a beginning
- Times (paywalled)
Michael Gove
I’ve campaigned for change in our relationship with Europe for more than 20 years, so I was delighted with the result on June 23. But I know the demand in our society for change goes beyond our relationship with Europe.

People who voted to leave don’t just want a sovereign nation, able to control its own borders and manage its own trade with the rest of the world. They want justice within our country too. Social and economic justice.

Social justice has been a defining mission of the Conservative Party since 2010. Under David Cameron’s leadership, Iain Duncan Smith and I set out to improve life chances for young people and adults through the education and welfare systems. Under Stephen Crabb and Nicky Morgan those reforms have accelerated. We as a government should be proud of the progress that has been made. But we have much further to go.

At this moment of change — this hinge in history — we have the opportunity not just to remake our political structures but also to forge a new social settlement.

We can show that our country has risen to the challenges of globalisation better than any in the world by ensuring that every citizen is valued, every soul is precious and every talent deployed to make our country stronger.

In order to ensure the abilities of every citizen are harnessed to the goal of greater fairness for all, the new prime minister must focus relentlessly on the deep problems which scar our society: the stubborn reoffending rates among former prisoners; the tragedy of low school attainment among large sections of the population, especially poor white boys in coastal towns and cities; the scourge of domestic violence; the emerging epidemic of mental ill health; and most of all — modern Britain’s greatest shame — the collapse of social mobility.

As I have argued over the years, Conservatives must be warriors for the dispossessed. But we must not think that it is only a minority in the toughest circumstances we need to act to help. We also need to make our economy work far better for those on average and below average incomes.

Because the British contract has been broken. The basic principle that if you work hard, you will prosper; if your children try hard at school, they will get a good job and own their own home no longer applies. Today, for too many of our neighbours, the reality of economic life is low wages on zero hours contracts, and zero hope of home ownership.

The postwar dream is unfulfilled in our generation. There are two reasons for this, one social and one economic. What makes life difficult for people isn’t just the lack of money. It’s the lack of social capital, the network of trust and help which calls out the best in each of us and makes us a strong support for others. This applies to everyone. Social capital is the best bulwark against poverty and the best driver of social mobility. Indeed, responsibility to others — to the common good — is the best foundation of a strong economy.

Let me take one example. At the moment, children in care often lack advantages the rest of us take for granted. Young people leaving care are three times more likely to be not in work, education and training than their peers. So, as a small practical step to this broader goal, we should explore whether employers who take on a young person who has grown up in care should be rewarded through the tax system, with a holiday from national insurance contributions for that worker.

As this suggests, the other great challenge is economic. We need to rethink what economic activity is really for. Profit is the great driver of innovation and growth, but it must not be the sole purpose of a business. When a company or its shareholders only pursue the bottom line, when the only mission of the enterprise is to profit, then its original mission — to make, to grow, to make life more liveable for more people — is lost. The boss of the US car manufacturer who once said “We don’t make cars, we make money” disgraced his company, and disgraced capitalism.

Social and economic reform demand careful work. But above this, we need policies that respect social solidarity and good citizenship. The rewards in this life should not only go to the fastest, the strongest and the most talented — but also to the kindest, the bravest and the gentlest.

I know that politics is personal. I’m in politics because of the people who showed me kindness and gentleness from the beginning — the parents who adopted me when I was four months old. They gave me the love and care that enabled me to enjoy great opportunities. So I know that each of us needs the right support if we’re to make the most of our talents. Social justice is personal to me.

I did not campaign for Britain to leave the EU as an end in itself. Voting to leave is the means to an end, which is the real mission of my career in politics: to make this country the best place in the world in which to grow up, to get on, to make a contribution. That is the greatness we should aspire to, and one that leaving the EU makes possible.










(...)


Reminds me of this piece by (yuk) John Rentoul
Is it really all doom and gloom for Blairites? Perhaps they should realise they have a champion in Michael Gove - Independent (Feb 16 2016)

Obviously Gove's article is a pitch aimed at MPs to persuade them to put him on the final members ballot, and to indicate that he is available for a big job if that doesn't succeed.

But it also starkly sets out the differences between him and Leadsom, who has made some populist sounding promises but is fundamentally a 'remove the constraints on wealth creation' and 'reaffirm traditional values' kind of Tory, for whom the real social mobility problem is that there's probably a bit too much of it. Their core appeal is to different sections of the Tory party. Add in all the other issues - leadership skills, presentational abilities, perceived competence, public image, the gaping wound that Gove has inflicted on himself, the underlying post-referendum "shit got real" factor and so on, and its not difficult to see the challenge the hard-Brexiteers will have in marshalling support behind one anti-May candidate. Interesting to note that Liam Fox has declared for May.
 
That text that Gove ally Boles sent to fellow tory MPs....
"You are my friend. I respect the fact that you want Theresa May to be PM. It is overwhelmingly likely that she will be. And if she does I will sleep easily at night. But I am seriously frightened about the risk of allowing Andrea Leadsom onto the membership ballot. What if Theresa stumbles? Are we really confident that the membership won't vote for a fresh face who shares their attitudes about much of modern life? Like they did with IDS [Iain Duncan Smith]. I am not asking you to respond unless you positively want to have a chat. But I hope that you will reflect on this carefully. Michael doesn't mind spending 2 months taking a good thrashing from Theresa if that's what it takes but in the party's interest and the national interest surely we must work together to stop AL[Andrea Leadsom]? xNick"
lol
 
Survation survey of adults 18+ (4th-5th July 1008 sample)

Come What May – Theresa “Most Favourable” of Conservative Leadership Contenders

More-likely.png


No other candidate had a higher percentage saying that their leadership would make them more likely to vote Conservative than the opposite – while two-in-five (41%) of Conservative 2015 voters actually said that Michael Gove being Conservative leader would make them less likely to vote Conservative at the next election.

More significantly, among Conservative 2015 voters Mrs May’s favourability rose to +69, while Leadsom’s only rose to +10. All of the male leadership candidates had negative favourability ratings, even among Conservative 2015 voters, where Michael Gove’s in particular was as low as -50.
 
Hoping Leadsom will mess up more with her presentation and fall behind.
I really don't want her in charge of EU divorce negotiations.
 
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