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Who is going to win the 2016 Tory leadership election?

who is going to win the 2016 tory leadership election?


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Just done a search on The Times site - nothing about this by him or anyone else as far as I can see. Could be for tomorrows paper.
Looked a little harder and found this from the report of the meeting at which she announced her candidacy.
In a speech in central London backed by a library bookcase, Mrs May also pledged that she would not decide whether to invoke Article 50 until the end of the year. The legal status of Britons living in Europe or EU nationals in the UK “will not change”, she said, until a legal agreement is reached with the bloc.
The wording in the written version of her statement was
And until a new legal agreement is reached with the EU, which will not happen for some time, the legal status of British nationals living or working in Europe will not change – and neither will the status of EU nationals in Britain.
I wonder if Sam Coates tweet is a creative interpretation of this intended to draw a response ? Ongoing, as they say.
 
Looks like that was indeed what Coates was doing. In a piece co-authored by him in todays Times :
Mrs May appeared to suggest that the long-term future of those citizens of European Union countries who are living in the UK at present might well be in doubt.

“Until a new legal agreement is reached with the EU, which will not happen for some time, the legal status of British nationals living or working in Europe will not change, and neither will the status of EU nationals in Britain,” she said.
Boris Johnson, her former rival, had earlier suggested that all EU citizens now in Britain would retain the right to stay, with only new arrivals likely to be subjected to a points-system check before being allowed to stay.

Mrs May said later that this issue would be resolved in the negotiation with the rest of Europe.
However this isn't the focus of the article, just one point among others analysing her statement.
FWIW the text of the article :
May goes for power with swift U-turn over human rights

Francis Elliott, Political Editor | Sam Coates, Deputy Political Editor
July 1 2016, 12:01am, The Times

Theresa May ditched George Osborne’s austerity policies and her own pledge to pull Britain out of the European Convention on Human Rights yesterday as she sought to clear her path to No 10.

The home secretary made the two surprise moves, which she hopes will broaden her appeal among Tory MPs, as she launched her leadership campaign flanked by two cabinet colleagues on either side of the EU referendum, Chris Grayling and Justine Greening.

Mrs May, who backed Remain, ruled out any possibility of a second referendum as she sought to reach out to her former opponents. “Brexit means Brexit,” she said, adding that it was the duty of MPs to implement the vote, and pointing out that she had not claimed that the sky would fall in if Britain left.

In a message aimed at reassuring nervous Conservative MPs as much as jittery markets in Britain and elsewhere she also said there would be no general election until 2020, and that she would not trigger the formal two-year talks to leave the EU until the “British negotiating strategy is agreed and clear” — with no prospect that that would come this year.

Her most surprising move, however, was to scrap an earlier promise to take Britain out of the convention on human rights. A month ago she said it was not the EU Britain should leave but the convention. “The ECHR can bind the hands of parliament, adds nothing to our prosperity, makes us less secure by preventing the deportation of dangerous foreign nationals, and does nothing to change the attitudes of governments like Russia’s when it comes to human rights,” she said.

However, answering questions yesterday Mrs May abandoned that position, saying there was no parliamentary will for the move. That shift has helped to win her the backing of influential figures such as Dominic Grieve, the former attorney-general, who has opposed previous attempts to withdraw from the Strasbourg court.

Her other significant shift was to commit to ease Mr Osborne’s austerity programme by ditching the pledge to run a surplus by the end of the parliament. “While it is absolutely vital that the government continues with its intention to reduce public spending and cut the budget deficit, we should no longer seek to reach a budget surplus by the end of the parliament,” she said — a message that leaves open the possibility that the government will still be borrowing more than it raises in taxes by the end of the decade.

In the face of warnings of a post-Brexit plunge into recession, she said that her priority would be to avoid raising taxes. “If before 2020 there is a choice between further spending cuts, more borrowing and tax rises, the priority must be to avoid tax increases, since they would disrupt consumption, employment and investment,” she said to cheers from an audience of Conservative supporters.

Mrs May appeared to suggest that the long-term future of those citizens of European Union countries who are living in the UK at present might well be in doubt.

“Until a new legal agreement is reached with the EU, which will not happen for some time, the legal status of British nationals living or working in Europe will not change, and neither will the status of EU nationals in Britain,” she said.

Boris Johnson, her former rival, had earlier suggested that all EU citizens now in Britain would retain the right to stay, with only new arrivals likely to be subjected to a points-system check before being allowed to stay.

Mrs May said later that this issue would be resolved in the negotiation with the rest of Europe.

Her speech unspun by Philip Collins

This is not a game
“If you are from an ordinary working-class family, life is just much harder than many people in politics realise. Frankly, not everybody in Westminster understands what it’s like to live like this and some need to be told that it isn’t a game. It’s a serious business that has real consequences for people’s lives.”

PC: The first of a series of remarks pointed in Boris Johnson’s direction. The hint of class disgust and the accusation that, for some, politics is sport is a direct accusation that Mr Johnson is not serious. It is also a hidden suggestion that leaving the EU will hurt.

Mark my words
“Brexit means Brexit . . . to allow British companies to trade with the single market in goods and services, but also to regain more control of the numbers of people who are coming here from Europe.”

PC: The first three words are, again, loaded at Mr Johnson, who seemed to be wriggling on the question, and also designed to reassure the Tory members that Mrs May, a Remainer, accepts the mandate. On the dilemma of reconciling trade with migration she says nothing of note. That is for another day.

Ready and willing
“I grew up the daughter of a local vicar and the granddaughter of a regimental sergeant major . . . I know I’m not a showy politician, I don’t tour the TV studios, I don’t gossip about people over lunch, I don’t go drinking in parliament’s bars. I don’t often wear my heart on my sleeve. I just get on with the job in front of me. If ever there was a time for a prime minister who is ready and able to do the job from day one, this is it.”

PC: This passage positions Mrs May as the archetypal shire Tory. For a woman who has been home secretary for six years we know very little about her. There are echoes of “not flash, just Gordon” in this. The speech works even though it is, once again, a barb at Mr Johnson, which became unnecessary as soon as she sat down.

Get used to it
“Following last week’s referendum, our country needs strong leadership to steer us through this period of economic and political uncertainty and to negotiate the best possible terms as we leave the EU. We need leadership that can unite our party and our country.”

PC: Mrs May illustrated this by listing her achievements at the Home Office. We are going to be seeing Abu Qatada’s picture a lot because of Mrs May’s triumph in deporting him. The whole speech contrasted competence with chaos and gravity with comedy. It was well written, solidly delivered, and it worked.
 
I think with May as prime minister all leave negotiations will be handled by remainers. I guess all the main leave MPs will be sidelined & the mission will be to end up with a leave that is close as possible to remain. All talk of any sort of restriction on free movement of labour is probably bollocks in the end because Camo called his negotiations with the EU a success even though they would not budge on free movement of labour.
 
Who will May's chancellor be? I think that's an important question.
Been out of the news cycle for a day...and I feel completely lost! So, apols if this is rubbish...but who would be Gove's chancellor? Is it Patel?
 
Who will May's chancellor be? I think that's an important question.
Probably Osborne who in the event of a leave vote was supposed to be even more 'finished' than Camo. I think the Tories are rapidly trying to regain centre ground 'normality'.
 
I backed Leadsom on Betfair a while ago but then immediately layed her again after reading her Wikipedia article. I don't think she will survive an attack on her family tax-dodging.
You'd like to think so....but....?
 
Looks increasingly likely to be May now.

Pob miscalculated this one, big time. I reckon.

Nah, its a stitch up, he knew he wouldn't get in, the existing big wigs didn't want Boris, all thats left is to work out what rewards are given out once Miss May is in charge of the asylum.

Could also be a stitch up for one of the other contenders, clean break with Cameron regime. But its all been hashed out, the fig leaf of democracy and electing a leader.

Yeah I sound like a conspiraloon but this is the fucking Tories, you don't think they'd leave electing a leader to chance do you?
 
Looks increasingly likely to be May now.

Pob miscalculated this one, big time. I reckon.
Unless, of course, Gove was in there to do just this. In which case, it might represent an acute Machiavellian calculation, for which he will be ultimately rewarded with treasury/FO?
 
Nah, its a stitch up, he knew he wouldn't get in, the existing big wigs didn't want Boris, all thats left is to work out what rewards are given out once Miss May is in charge of the asylum.

Could also be a stitch up for one of the other contenders, clean break with Cameron regime. But its all been hashed out, the fig leaf of democracy and electing a leader.

Yeah I sound like a conspiraloon but this is the fucking Tories, you don't think they'd leave electing a leader to chance do you?
Telegraph certainly on this "cuckoo" line...with supporting evidence.
 
Gove is using his speech to position himself as the 'real'/'continuity' Leave candidate....implying May won't deliver.
Battle lines drawn.
 
Gove is using his speech to position himself as the 'real'/'continuity' Leave candidate....implying May won't deliver.
Battle lines drawn.

It was massively long, like a conference speech. He couldn't possibly have written it since deciding not to back Johnson yesterday.
 
The Sun two days ago :

Boris Johnson and Michael Gove WILL honour their promise to Sun readers
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:D
What was that then, France for a fiver? Suspect inflation may be a problem now :hmm:
 
Surely writing speeches is what one has one's speechwriters undertake ?
Quite possibly, but as Gove has a reputation for being a speech 'sounding-board' for other colleagues, I'd imagine that he is quite hands-on with his own. At the very least, a speech of such proportions suggests a fair degree of preparedness.
 
Quite possibly, but as Gove has a reputation for being a speech 'sounding-board' for other colleagues, I'd imagine that he is quite hands-on with his own. At the very least, a speech of such proportions suggests a fair degree of preparedness.
Indeed - but as was implied this has been in the planning for rather longer than Gove is pretending.

That said I'd imagine his 'plan for the UK' is something he's been thinking about for a long time.
 
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