What about Benghazi?

[likesfish]

congos big and rich in minerals something thats used in mobiles comes from thier but is mined in truly hellish conditions
but its as big as europe jungle and home to some truly evil militas.
several african armies were fighting a proxy war financed by mineing.
not doable.
libya in are face doable. we don't have anything else that could do the typhoons role and it looks like most arab state won't be in the market for hi-tech jet fighters crownd control equipment and something for a fast getaway yes.

 

[phildwyer]

It would indeed form part of my fevered imaginings, yes.

But then I'd wake up and realise they had no connection to the current situation, either cause or outcome (which could be worse for Israel).

Yes it could. And therefore if I were Israel I would be using all the very considerable resources at my disposal to ensure that the outcome was in my favor.

Wouldn't you?

 

[invisibleplanet]

I could well be wrong about Fezzan, in terms of importance altho not population and economic input, but the split between east and west has in various incarnations and versions been going since the Roman times. Anyhoo, this is getting so off-topic that I'm gonna leave this thread and get back to doing some work.

I think you're wrong about the importance of Fezzan. Fezzan is where pro-Khadifi forces would redoubt to if they were forced out of Tripolitania. Anyone serious about ousting the Khadafi regime will have to take control of Fezzan and hold it. Beghazi is important, but Fezzan could be the setting for any last stand for the Khadifi-regime, imo. But perhaps this is for another thread. I don't know.

 

[Hocus Eye.]

On the OP
We don't have to give an answer to those 'who see no alternative' to Western intervention because they do see the alternative, and that is the likely military defeat of the people of Benghazi by Gadaffi's army. That is the same alternative that we see.

Sadly a sentimental support for a minority in a country ruled by a dictator, is not helping a revolution. That has to be entirely internal. If the support for revolution is not sufficient then achieving a change of leader with the help of a no-fly zone will not change the way the country is run, only the name of the man at the top.

The media have been delightedly following the 'Arab Revolution' from country to country with tacit approval. This is a false story though. Each country is different, and just because many of the youth of each country are inspired by the actions in the earlier revolutions does not mean that the results will be the same. To some in the media the story is about the liberating influence of the internet. As an example of what can happen after a revolution seems to have succeeded, look at Egypt. The western media are paying little attention there. The vote for a modified constitution is happening right now. If the modifications are supported, the supporters of old regime will be able to avoid scrapping the old constitution and can restore a lot of their power with the Army standing next to them. And yes Gaza is relevant. Western powers are not looking to support Gaza even so far as to demand the removal of the maritime blockade, surely a deserving cause. That is if your political leaders are not afraid of an Israeli lobby in Congress and the Senate.

America is not the leader in this war although they have the biggest military contribution. They were bounced into it by Cameron and Sarkozy and they seem very hesitant to claim leadership. Cameron did it I think from sheer political inexperience, and Sarkozy from internal political reasons. I fear that Obama has made a major blunder here, and suspect he knows it. How do you get out of this situation is more important a question to having a post-mortem on to how we got in. Only about 30% of our population support this war so not many people will be asking "What about Benghazi?"

 

[invisibleplanet]

[He's not saying what I want him to say so I can launch my pre-prepared attack on him based on past grudges, so I'll keep pushing this and pushing this]

Wouldn't you?

e2a: Apols to Dylans.

Let's get back to the thread.

 

[Idaho]

You're a little ill-informed and out of date, to say the least. That idea was junked about 100 years ago - in theory by Trotsky then in practice in Russia in 1917.

Yeah, stable capitalist democracy in Libya. To get that you need a stable capitalist class, not a set of quasi-tribal pyramids of patron-client relations and virtually only one way of oiling that particular machine (pun unintended)

And yet the reason often given by Marxists for the failure and totalitarianism of the Soviet state is that it 'lacked any democratic tradition'* So how are states to gain this beneficial tradition?


*Your words btw

 

[kyser_soze]

an example of what can happen after a revolution seems to have succeeded, look at Egypt. The western media are paying little attention there. The vote for a modified constitution is happening right now

Yes, only 2000+ articles & features about it since Friday on google news alone. Lead feature on the BBC's Africa homepage. So very little attention then.

 

[invisibleplanet]

America is not the leader in this war although they have the biggest military contribution. They were bounced into it by Cameron and Sarkozy and they seem very hesitant to claim leadership. Cameron did it I think from sheer political inexperience, and Sarkozy from internal political reasons. I fear that Obama has made a major blunder here, and suspect he knows it.

Don't forget Canada.

 

[Casually Red]

Well its certainly true that Tripoli didnt rise up enough to overthrow Gaddafi.

It didnt rise up at all

Beyond that its very hard to judge the situation there. We dont have any idea how many people were motivated to come out against him in Tripoli early on, except to say it wasnt enough. Anecdotal evidence suggests that it may have ben a couple of poor districts of Tripoli who caused Gaddafi the most trouble, but information is sparse. In any case your overall view of Tripoli may well be accurate, Im not sure if we will ever find out though, perhaps we will get some sense of this when Gaddafi falls or if/when rebel forces get near to Tripoli.

we know for sure theres plenty of people been volunteering to fight against the counter revolutionaries in their home towns , and that they have been the entire time. That they were primarily young people and not generals and high ranking officials . And that they were never fucking mercenaries either .

 

[Idaho]

It didnt rise up at all


we know for sure theres plenty of people been volunteering to fight against the counter revolutionaries in their home towns , and that they have been the entire time. That they were primarily young people and not generals and high ranking officials . And that they were never fucking mercenaries either .

How do you know for sure that plenty of people have been volunteering to fight?

And why are you referring to them as counter-revolutionaries?!

 

[phildwyer]

e2a: Apols to Dylans.

Let's get back to the thread.

Sorry, you've lost me now. You seem a bit paranoid, tbh.

Anyway, I've noticed that the Israel angle on the middle east is emphasized far more clearly in the USA than in the UK, presumably because the US population both understands and supports Israel's interests to a greater degree than the British.

Does anyone doubt that Israel cares what kind of government rules in Libya? Nobody doubts that. Does anyone doubt that they are capable of intervening in the rebellion? Nobody doubts that either. So we can assume that they are intervening.

How proficient and effective is such intervention likely to be? Based on the evidence of the past? And how has such intervention customarily been applied?

 

[Spion]

And yet the reason often given by Marxists for the failure and totalitarianism of the Soviet state is that it 'lacked any democratic tradition'* So how are states to gain this beneficial tradition?


*Your words btw

Yeah, that's all I've ever said on the subject

They're not going to gain a 'stable capitalist democracy' - the conditions just don't exist for it to happen

 

[kyser_soze]

So we can assume that they are intervening.

No you can't. HOw do you know if Mossad are taking a wait-and-see approach? If you're correct, and their only goal is to ensure that an Israel-neutral (at worst) regime sits in power afterwards, how do you know, and how can you make the assumption, that they are intervening? You don't & you can't.

 

[invisibleplanet]

blah blah blah You seem a bit paranoid, tbh

Make a new thread, dwyer. I'm not the one touting paranoid-conspiraloon-the-joos-are-behind-it-all-with-their-unseen-machinations, which is the original reason Spion took the piss out of your fishy-cui-bono blatherings.

 

[phildwyer]

No you can't. HOw do you know if Mossad are taking a wait-and-see approach? If you're correct, and their only goal is to ensure that an Israel-neutral (at worst) regime sits in power afterwards, how do you know, and how can you make the assumption, that they are intervening? You don't & you can't.

I know that they care very much about the results of this rebellion, and I know that they have the capacity to attempt to influence those results. I know that in the past such attempts have been extremely successful, and I know that this success has often been achieved by using allies as proxies.

In fact, everyone knows all of this.

Knowing all of this, it seems extremely unlikely that Israel is simply twiddling its thumbs. Even if it were, it would continue in its passivity only so long as events proceeded in accordance with its desires.

 

[butchersapron]

Make a new thread, dwyer. Paranoid? I'm not the one touting conspiraloon-the-joos-are-behind-it-all-with-unseen-machinations, which is the original reason Spion took the piss out of your fishy-cui-bono blatherings.

Can you talk about the content of these threads for once?

 

[invisibleplanet]

Can you talk about the content of these threads for once?

I have already. Direct that to others and quit stalking/singling me out for opprobrium.

 

[phildwyer]

I'm not the one touting conspiraloon-the-joos-are-behind-it-all-with-unseen-machinations

So you equate suspicion of Israel with anti-semitism? How original. And how despicable.

In any case, I have not even criticized Israel. I'm saying that they are presumably acting as any state acts: prosecuting their vital interests to the best of their abilities.

 

[butchersapron]

I have already. Direct that to others, and quit stalking/singling me out for opprobrium above all others.

Where? Phil, give it a rest.

 

[kyser_soze]

I know that they care very much about the results of this rebellion, and I know that they have the capacity to attempt to influence those results. I know that in the past such attempts have been extremely successful, and I know that this success has often been achieved by using allies as proxies.

In fact, everyone knows all of this.

Knowing all of this, it seems extremely unlikely that Israel is simply twiddling its thumbs. Even if it were, it would continue in its passivity only so long as events proceeded in accordance with its desires.

You're demonstrating an awful lot of knowing here.

You know what has happened in the past. You are assuming that the same things will happen in the future.

What you don't know is what, if anything, Mossad is doing on the ground, whether they are supporting the existing regime or not. You can surmise that they are up to something, but you can't know and you should never assume.

 

[invisibleplanet]

Where?

You have eyes. Read up

 

[Spion]

I'm saying that they are presumably acting as any state acts: prosecuting their vital interests to the best of their abilities.

Well, give us some facts. Speculation by internet loons is worthless

 

[Spion]

Can you talk about the content of these threads for once?

Can you?

 

[butchersapron]

You have eyes. Read up

I have eyes, i don't see where you've done that.

What about tripoli. I don't agree that the question needs be asked at all.

 

[phildwyer]

You're demonstrating an awful lot of knowing here.

You know what has happened in the past. You are assuming that the same things will happen in the future.

What you don't know is what, if anything, Mossad is doing on the ground, whether they are supporting the existing regime or not. You can surmise that they are up to something, but you can't know and you should never assume.

Well I'd say that the West as a whole has made it pretty clear where their sympathies lie. Only a naif would believe that Western policy takes no account of Israeli interests.

Such observations are highly relevant to the subject of this thread, for they suggest that Western intervention is untrustworthy, self-interested and likely to result in a regime that does not represent the wishes of the populace.

 

[butchersapron]

Can you?

Yes i can, and i've done so consistently over all the threads.

Your mates contributions are 95% stop talking about this in a way that i don't like.

 

[phildwyer]

Well, give us some facts.

No-one knows the facts. What we have to go on are history, geopolitical logic, statecraft and a knowledge of realpolitik.

Fortunately, such factors generally prove more reliable guides than what are alleged as "facts" by the various interested parties.

 

[kyser_soze]

Well I'd say that the West as a whole has made it pretty clear where their sympathies lie. Only a naif would believe that Western policy takes no account of Israeli interests.

Such observations are highly relevant to the subject of this thread, for they suggest that Western intervention is untrustworthy, self-interested and likely to result in a regime that does not represent the wishes of the populace.

Yes, but this is a very different position to take from asserting that Mossad were definitely in play in the region.

And I don't think anyone has disagreed that the West is doing this out of some sense of altruism and not cold, hard resource aquisition. And with a 55l tank of petrol running at £75 in the UK is this really any shock?

 

[TruXta]

I have eyes, i don't see where you've done that.

What about tripoli. I don't agree that the question needs be asked at all.

Say why, then, or link to where you've said why.

 

[Spion]

Your mates contributions are 95% stop talking about this in a way that i don't like.

That's exactly what you're doing right now. So why not just contribute or at least mask your inter-personal hostility in a post on the subject like other message board obsessives do?