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What about Benghazi?

dylans

overlord of all acorns
One of the most consistent, one could argue the most consistent, justification for the attack on Libya is the claimed concern for civilians, particularly in Benghazi. We watched as the rebel troops lost town after town until Gaddafi's forces were at the gates of benghazi, seemingly about to sieze the town and snuff out the last embers of the Libyan revolt. The cry, we must admit, not entirely cynical, "what about Benghazi" was raised. Yes by hypocritical self serving western politicians. Yes by Arab despots whose own record in crushing their own people was little better than Gaddafi but not only by them.

It seems to me that an awful lot of good people, people whose opinions I respect, have been swayed to supporting western intervention by the fate of Benghazi and a reasonable concern for the fate of its people.

It is to them, people whose support for Western action is by no means a knee jerk jingoism. People who in any other circumstance would be opposed to this war and people whose support for Western intervention sits uncomfortably in their gut but who can see no other answer to the question "what about Benghazi," that this thread is concerned.

It seems to me that those of us who are opposed to this war owe them an answer. Not least because these are the very people who opposed the Iraq war and who can be won to a position of opposition to this one and simply, as idiots like Ern do, simply dismissing them as "pro imperialist" or "war mongers" simply won't do. Not if those of us who are opposed to this war have any serious intention of convincing people that the war is wrong.

There are a number of replies to the question "what about Benghazi" and frankly they don't convince me, let alone go anyway to swaying those who we want to win to an anti war position.

The most obvious is those sad deluded fools who simply dismiss the entire rebellion as an "imperialist plot" and the rebels as a construction of the CIA etc. The companion to this of course is those who sing Gaddafi's praises and paint him as some kind of semi socialist anti imperialist etc. The line usually goes that Gaddafi supported various "anti imperialist causes etc. The life expectancy rate of Libya is often trotted out. The free universities, the health care etc.

To those who follow this line. Gaddafi is the revolution and the rebels the counter revolutionary. It follows therefore Benghazi should be crushed and the defeat of this rebellion should be celebrated. We don't need to spend much time on this contemptible argument except to point out a few things. Those who wish to condemn this rebellion in its entirety are the same people who celebrated the fall of Mubarak and Ben Ali. As such they are as guilty of hypocricy as the Western governments they condemn for picking and choosing the "civilians" they wish to "save". The frankly vile and arrogant demand that Libyans should live under a vicious and brutal regime, a police state that we are fortunate not to live under, hardly needs elaborating on. The hypocricy too, of crying tears of anguish at the brutality of Mubaraks thugs and then excusing the brutality of Gaddafi's also should need no further elaboration.

But it begs the question. If, as i do, we support the revolution against Gaddafi "what about Benghazi? What is the alternative to Western intervention? Are we supposed to sit and watch while Benghazi falls? Opposing the intervention that could save it? I think this question deserves a serious reply and so far I don't think it has had one. This is the intention of this thread.

One argument that I have seen,(and if I am honest, one i have used myself) but frankly, not one that convinces., is to dismiss the claims of Benghazi’s immenent fall. To claim that Benghazi could hold off Gaddafi without Western intervention and therefore the call for intervention is hysterical panic mongering and hype. The problem with this argument is firstly that it is simply untrue. There is little doubt that left to a battle between Benghazi and Gaddafi then the rebellion was going to lose, and secondly it reduces what should be a political question to a mere strategic question and begs the question, if it could be demonstrated that without Western intervention Benghazi was doomed would we then support the intervention of the West. ? It seems to me that this line of argument is dishonest because the fact is I oppose Western intervention on political not strategic grounds. I am opposed to Western intervention under any conditions. I must then admit the unpleasant fact that I would oppose Western intervention even if it meant the fall of Benghazi. The ability or inability of Benghazi to defend itself then is irrelevant to my opposition to the war.

Then what is a principled answer to the question “what about Benghazi? I think an answer to this question is two fold. The first is a recognition that the rebellion didn’t fail at the gates of Benghazi but failed much earlier and that the very fact that Gaddafi’s troops reached the gates of Benghazi was an indication of the weaknesses and contradictions inherent in the rebellion itself. Weaknesses and contradictions that doomed it long before Gaddafi's troops reached the gates of Benghazi.

By this argument, the character of the revolt itself was such that it never transcended regionalism, tribalism and regime factionalism and never became a genuinely national democratic uprising. By this argument then, the only way that the rebellion was ever going to succeed was not by military means but by political means, by raising demands that appealed to the national democratic demands of ALL Libyans and as such transcended regional and tribal lines.

There were indications that this was working early in the uprising. For example the slogan “There is one tribe, Libyan” was a truly national democratic slogan that all Libyans could rally around and a slogan that undercut the regimes claim that the rebellion was seperatist or a foreign plot.

However as the uprising increasingly became a military uprising, not merely for self defence but one that was explicity aimed at offensive action to take Tripoli not by insurrection by winning the residents of Tripoli to the revolution but by military force. in effect the conquest of the West by the East. As such the rebellion increasingly began to be perceived (by all sides) as a regional military assault by the East on the West in place of a national democratic revolutionary struggle. One thing reinforces the other of course. The failure to spark an uprising in Tripoli increased the tendencies of the rebellion to fall back on regionalism and tribalism and the increase of regionalism in turn further alienated Tripoli and other towns from the rebellion, round and round on and on in a self defeating spiral.

This dynamic was reinforced further by the rebels themselves. The use of divisive symbols increased the alienation of the West. For example the use of the pre Gaddafi flag of King Idris, is a tribal symbol. It is a symbol of Idris’ senoussi tribe, arch enemies of Gaddafi (and consisting of a third of Libyans) and a symbol guaranteed to further alienated other sectors of the Libyan population.

Earlier in another thread, I posted this (sorry for quoting myself but I think my earlier analysis has been proven overall correct.

There was never any hope of the rebels winning by purely military means. The only way the struggle against Gaddafi was ever going to be successful was for the revolution to use revolutionary methods. Appeal to national identity of all Libyans East and West over and above regional or tribal lines and that meant using language, demands and symbols that are inclusive not exclusive. Democratic not tribal. The intervention of the West has now made that impossible, totally alienated the population of Tripoli and made a purely military victory (one shepherded to power by Western bombs) of tribal factions the only outcome.


The second argument is more compelling. One that asks the question what was the rebellion for? To remove Gaddafi for sure but what good is a rebellion if it merely replaces one despotic tribal regime with another? Wasn’t the rebellion a democratic struggle? One fighting to replace Gaddafi with a representative government, one that reflects the wishes of the Libyan population and one that rules with accountability and respect for human rights? If the rebellion had any point at all then surely it was as a fight for national self determination. And by that standard Western intervention has killed any hope of that.

A truly representative regime has to be one created by and embraced by all Libyans and that is diametrically opposed to what Western intervention will create. Western intervention will shepherd a regional rebellion, one embraced by only regional and tribal interests into power against the wishes of half the country. Earlier in another thread I posted this

“Do you think Tripoli is going to welcome Benghazi with open arms when their troops march in? They won't. They will be seen as traitors, collaborators with imperialism and as Senoussi tribal occupiers intent on repressing their historical tribal and regional enemies. I have no doubt that any regime that is installed by the west following this farce will be a tribal regime and will act in much the same way as Gaddafi. Tribal rule by bribery and terror albeit with different sectors of the population being tortured and killed. Western intervention is killing the Libyan revolution and extinguishing all hope of self determination for Libyans.”

So back to Benghazi. What about Benghazi? I think the final answer to this question is to turn it on its head. What happens when the rebels reach Tripoli, install another tribal dictatorship in Gaddafi's place and exact a revenge on its population. Instead of "what about benghazi. Will we be crying "What about Tripoli?"
 
Missing from this analysis are the western towns/cities that rose up against Gaddafi. And we dont know quite how alienated the population of Tripoli now are. No way at all for me to judge the number of people who are angry about the bombing, nor the number of people who are hiding in their homes in Tripoli, hoping for Gaddafi to fall.

It would be useful to know the tribal affiliations of those in the higher ranks who have deserted Gaddafi. It would be good to know where all the tribes stand right now. I dont hold out too much hope of getting answers to these questions.
 
Missing from this analysis are the western towns/cities that rose up against Gaddafi. And we dont know quite how alienated the population of Tripoli now are. No way at all for me to judge the number of people who are angry about the bombing, nor the number of people who are hiding in their homes in Tripoli, hoping for Gaddafi to fall.

It would be useful to know the tribal affiliations of those in the higher ranks who have deserted Gaddafi. It would be good to know where all the tribes stand right now. I dont hold out too much hope of getting answers to these questions.

Yes but Tripoli didn't. And I am not convinced by the argument that this is solely because of repression. We wish it were but it is clear that even if Gaddafi doesn't enjoy considerable support in Tripoli (and I think he does) neither does the rebellion. Apart from a few brave souls, there have been no demonstrations of any real size. This may well be in part because of repression but repression alone doesn't explain the lack of an uprising in Tripoli. Lack of support for the rebellion does. Yes there were uprisings in other cities but remember that more than half the population lives in Tripoli and Benghazi. Tripoli is home to 1.1 million people in a population of 6.5 million. Without Tripoli this is simply not a national uprisiing. The OP is concerned with the question "what about Benghazi" and the truth is Benghazi was facing Gaddafi alone precisely and exactly because Tripoli didn't join it. We may not like that but it remains the truth
 
Missing from this analysis are the western towns/cities that rose up against Gaddafi. And we dont know quite how alienated the population of Tripoli now are. No way at all for me to judge the number of people who are angry about the bombing, nor the number of people who are hiding in their homes in Tripoli, hoping for Gaddafi to fall.

It would be useful to know the tribal affiliations of those in the higher ranks who have deserted Gaddafi. It would be good to know where all the tribes stand right now. I dont hold out too much hope of getting answers to these questions.

These are all good backgrounders - though in obvious need of updating:

The Road Less Traveled – Fezzan, Libya
Libyan Tribal Intrigue May Be Obama’s Swamp
Gaddafi’s “African Mercenaries” – Or Are They Libyans From Fezzan?
 
How many civil wars has there been, and how many of those has the UK pre-emptively chosen to become involved in before?

Without getting to judging what's happening, it does help to consider the context and the context is this moral dimension of humanitarianisn is a convenience for what this country has always done, all over the world - what the Uk is doing is a manifestation of what the entire political class deigns to be the 'national interest'.
 
Yes but Tripoli didn't. And I am not convinced by the argument that this is solely because of repression. We wish it were but it is clear that even if Gaddafi doesn't enjoy considerable support in Tripoli (and I think he does) neither does the rebellion. Apart from a few brave souls, there have been no demonstrations of any real size. This may well be in part because of repression but repression alone doesn't explain the lack of an uprising in Tripoli. Lack of support for the rebellion does. Yes there were uprisings in other cities but remember that more than half the population lives in Tripoli and Benghazi. Tripoli is home to 1.1 million people in a population of 6.5 million. Without Tripoli this is simply not a national uprisiing. The OP is concerned with the question "what about Benghazi" and the truth is Benghazi was facing Gaddafi alone precisely and exactly because Tripoli didn't join it. We may not like that but it remains the truth

Well its certainly true that Tripoli didnt rise up enough to overthrow Gaddafi. Beyond that its very hard to judge the situation there. We dont have any idea how many people were motivated to come out against him in Tripoli early on, except to say it wasnt enough. Anecdotal evidence suggests that it may have ben a couple of poor districts of Tripoli who caused Gaddafi the most trouble, but information is sparse. In any case your overall view of Tripoli may well be accurate, Im not sure if we will ever find out though, perhaps we will get some sense of this when Gaddafi falls or if/when rebel forces get near to Tripoli.

I certainly feel extremely hampered by the fact I've mostly been relying on info from Libyans that can speak english.

Cheers for the links buthers, gotta go to work now but will try to find time to read these soon.
 
Without getting to judging what's happening, it does help to consider the context and the context is this moral dimension of humanitarianisn is a convenience for what this country has always done, all over the world - what the Uk is doing is a manifestation of what the entire political class deigns to be the 'national interest'.

Indeed. Millibands mention of 'our values' says it all really.
 
I think I am going to step back a little and let people discuss the OP for a while before coming back to any points made
 
We might also ask what level of support the rebels actually have in Benghazi. The following, from the BBC live page today, may smell a tad funny but I think its worth throwing out there anyway:

1212: An anonymous caller in Tripoli tells BBC World Have Your Say a story told to her by a friend: "She was in the bakery and she talked to a nine-year-old boy. She asked him: 'Where are you from?' He said: 'I'm from Benghazi, we just ran away. They [the rebels] force us to have a new flag. They went door by door, they gave us a flag and they said you have to put it outside your houses. One of our neighbours said 'I don't want the flag'. They hit him, they gave him a bullet in his heart'."
 
Those links by butchersapron are most edifying. I had never heard of Fezzan until now. It looks like the Western Powers have seriously underestimated Gadaffi's support in the rest of what we call Libya and its areas of influence.

The no-fly zone has had its first victim. An American F15 has crashlanded in the rebel held area (its 3 crew survived) -BBC. Meanwhile British aircraft have completed a mission. Is it just coincidence that both Britain and France have flown new designs of aircraft for the first time in action? What a selling opportunity.
 
Very sound and clear OP, so cheers dylans. My question is: so what? If your analysis is correct, that this isn't a democratic insurrection, but rather a civil war between the old regime and a new one that wants in, what should the rest of the world do about it? Nothing?

E2A There's an assumption in the OP that a unified Libya is what the rebels ought to strive for. Why? It's not like Libya as such is a nation comparable to European nations. Allegiances are tribal in nature, with the added complications arising from the clientelistic machinations of the current regime.
 
I have been following the Libyan situation avidly over the last few weeks, and after much thought, I am in general support of the intervention so far. Why? Because I have some faith that in general, the majority of Libyans don't want Gaddafi and want to have more political say in their own lives.

There are three points there that need some qualification:

1 - Faith that Libyans don't want Gaddafi
2 - Support of intervention and it's methods
3 - Belief that the system that comes after will be an improvement

The first point seems to be the easiest to support. While G has plenty of supporters and no doubt a large network of people who rely on him for their livelyhood, generally, ruthless dictators (and I don't think there are many sane commentators who wouldn't class him as such) are despised by their populous, especially in times of hardship. The comments of people from the rebel areas are seemingly one-sided as you would expect. As are the comments from G controlled places. It's almost impossible to rely on statements from either side. But we have to give significant creedance to the large numbers of people who participated in protests and uprisings across the country knowing what G would do.

The methods of intervention are all going to involve killing people one way or another. Non-intervention will also result in lots of people being killed. In many ways we are stuffed either way. The Arab countries are playing their usual card of calling for action, then distancing themselves from any negative results of that action. I think the intervention may well have saved Benghazi. Or at the least it saved Benghazi from becoming a war zone for 3 months, 3 years..? Yes the bombing will have killed civillians, but it has put G on the back foot, and that's pretty much all we can do. It's politically and militarily untenable to put troops on the ground. And for the longer term good of Libya it's better that we don't. I also think that the importance to Libya of a short civil war is huge compared to the generations of bitterness and recrimination that a long one would cause.

The last point, the belief that a replacement system would be better, is a matter of hope. Libya is not Afghanistan, nor is it Iraq. It's got a small, relatively educated population widely distributed. There is oil wealth (although this arguably causes more problems than it solves). Whatever system that comes next is going to be better than G. It's just a matter of getting to that point quickly. We are in the hands of the rebels to deliver that. And to a large extent we are now responsible for whatever mess and murder they get up to.
 
From the OP, in short:

It wasn't the right kind of rebellion to support, and the West shouldn't have gotten involved under any circumstances.

Pretty much agree with that.
 
What is the "right kind of rebellion"? One started by unblemished innocents with no historical baggage and a clear moral code and open agenda?

You remind me of the apocryphal local who when asked for directions to the nearest town replies "if you want to go to town, I wouldn't start from here".
 
What is the "right kind of rebellion"? One started by unblemished innocents with no historical baggage and a clear moral code and open agenda?

You remind me of the apocryphal local who when asked for directions to the nearest town replies "if you want to go to town, I wouldn't start from here".

One that can win. One that doesn't alienate half the country and end up in the dead end of having to call for Western intervention to save it from defeat
 
What is the "right kind of rebellion"? One started by unblemished innocents with no historical baggage and a clear moral code and open agenda?

You remind me of the apocryphal local who when asked for directions to the nearest town replies "if you want to go to town, I wouldn't start from here".

That question can be answered by reading the OP.

Or #16.
 
My point is not that an inclusive national democratic rebellion would have been somehow more worthy of our support. More moral or democratic. But that only an inclusive national democratic rebellion stood any chance of defeating Gaddafi by transcending regionalism and tribalism and appealing to the needs and demands of all Libyans. That it didn't do that is exemplified by the sight of Rebels appealing for Western help while Gaddafi's forces stood at the gates of Benghazi
 
My point is not that an inclusive national democratic rebellion would have been somehow more worthy of our support. More moral or democratic. But that only an inclusive national democratic rebellion stood any chance of defeating Gaddafi by transcending regionalism and tribalism and appealing to the needs and demands of all Libyans. That it didn't do that is exemplified by the sight of Rebels appealing for Western help while Gaddafi's forces stood at the gates of Benghazi

What, so the lack of support you're arguing for is tactical and not ideological?
 
Michael Walzer makes the point that one reason to oppose Western intervention is that there is no endgame, except maybe that of prolonging the rebellion in the hopes that it will catch on properly among Libyans. More here.
 
What, so the lack of support you're arguing for is tactical and not ideological?

It is a dialectic of the two (and yeah I know that sounds fucking pompous but it remains the case) Ideological in the sense that a fight for genuine democratic representational governance is one that offers the possibility of inspiring all Libyans above and beyond regionalism and tribalism. Tactical or more accurately strategic in the sense that only a struggle based on appealing to the national interests of all Libyans has any chance of success. The two are intrinsically tied together. There is no possibility of a victory without an ideology that wins over the majority of Libyans to the revolution and that is explicitly ruled out when a regional uprising waving a tribal flag sets out on a military campaign to seize Tripoli by force and that is absolutely impossible when they do so with the aid of Western firepower
 
It is a dialectic of the two (and yeah I know that sounds fucking pompous but it remains the case) Ideological in the sense that a fight for genuine democratic representational governance is one that offers the possibility of inspiring all Libyans above and beyond regionalism and tribalism. Tactical or more accurately strategic in the sense that only a struggle based on appealing to the national interests of all Libyans has any chance of success. The two are intrinsically tied together. There is no possibility of a victory without an ideology that wins over the majority of Libyans to the revolution and that is explicitly ruled out when a regional uprising waving a tribal flag sets out on a military campaign to seize Tripoli by force

But you're still predicating this on the implicit assumption that the present territory of Libya should remain intact and whole. Whereas in fact throughout history (up until 1945 at least), what we call Libya was really Tripolitania, Cyrenaica and Fezzan. Basing the debate, as you do, on calls to a territorial nationalism infused with democratic intent, could equally lead one to advocate the splitting up of Libya into two or more new countries.
 
If you look back through history you'll usually find that the wellspring of rebellions and revolutions are groups of people within a society who have been marginalised or oppressed. Saying that this uprising will create divisions and split the country ignores the fact that it's already divided and split.
 
If you look back through history you'll usually find that the wellspring of rebellions and revolutions are groups of people within a society who have been marginalised or oppressed. Saying that this uprising will create divisions and split the country ignores the fact that it's already divided and split.

That it is already divided is pretty much what I already said...
 
But you're still predicating this on the implicit assumption that the present territory of Libya should remain intact and whole. Whereas in fact throughout history (up until 1945 at least), what we call Libya was really Tripolitania, Cyrenaica and Fezzan. Basing the debate, as you do, on calls to a territorial nationalism infused with democratic intent, could equally lead one to advocate the splitting up of Libya into two or more new countries.

Nations exist in the heart and mind. There is no fixed a-historical permanent condition of what makes a nation a nation. In a nutshell a nation is a nation if its people identify with it. There are some historical examples however and in general separatism is usually a bad thing for the populations of nations and for the democratic aspirations of citizens. India for example is a nation divided in every possible way, linguistic, ethnic, religious, but it is a nation because of a strong sense of shared political identity whereas Pakistan and Bangladesh countries born of separatism are disasters especially in terms of democratic governance.

You are right of course, Libya is a very recent colonial invention (like many countries in the region) however I would argue that a progressive democratic nationalism is inclusive not separatist. Separatism would lead to the creation of several poorer countries.It would probably not be achieved without considerable bloodshed and ethnic cleansing and most importantly, it is not, despite the obvious regionalism of the uprising, something that Libyans have expressed a desire for at least as far as i know.

A national democratic struggle, one that embraced all Libyans (based on the slogan I saw written in Benghazi "there is one tribe Libyan) is one that can embrace the idea of shared identity within the struggle against Gaddafi itself and as such create a stronger sense of nation as opposed to the exclusivity of separatism or regionalism.

I agree with you however that the present military intervention in Libya, by freezing the conflict on regional lines creates the very real possibility of a separatist break up of the country
 
The last point, the belief that a replacement system would be better, is a matter of hope. Libya is not Afghanistan, nor is it Iraq. It's got a small, relatively educated population widely distributed. There is oil wealth (although this arguably causes more problems than it solves). Whatever system that comes next is going to be better than G.
Why is it? There's only two ways this can all go: a) either the mass of youth and workers who have been the battering ram of the rebellion retain their arms and organise themselves to run society in a radically different way, distributing oil revenues fairly and building up the infrastructure of the country for all, or; b) tribal/military or whatever leaders replace Gadafi with something pretty similar, ie a pyramid of patronage in which oil revenues are largely retained by an elite and disbursed according to political expediency, to buy off client groups.

b) is obviously far more likely in the absence of any socialist ideology on the ground.
 
Excellent analysis as usual Dylans. But I must take issue with you here:

The most obvious is those sad deluded fools who simply dismiss the entire rebellion as an "imperialist plot" and the rebels as a construction of the CIA etc. The companion to this of course is those who sing Gaddafi's praises and paint him as some kind of semi socialist anti imperialist etc. The line usually goes that Gaddafi supported various "anti imperialist causes etc. The life expectancy rate of Libya is often trotted out. The free universities, the health care etc.

Admiration for Gaddafi is by no means the "companion" to the notion that the rebellion was instigated wholly or in part by foreign interests. You know as well as I do that the CIA, Mossad and co. have operated in Libya for decades. What do you imagine they have been doing? What sequence of events do you imagine they have been trying to instigate?

That's not to say that most people involved in the rebellion are party to this, or aware of it. But the central question must always be cui bono? Who benefits from a war-torn and impotent Muslim world?
 
Nations exist in the heart and mind. There is no fixed a-historical permanent condition of what makes a nation a nation. In a nutshell a nation is a nation if its people identify with it. There are some historical examples however and in general separatism is usually a bad thing for the populations of nations and for the democratic aspirations of citizens. India for example is a nation divided in every possible way, linguistic, ethnic, religious, but it is a nation because of a strong sense of shared political identity whereas Pakistan and Bangladesh a country born of separatism are disasters especially in terms of democratic governance.

You are right of course, Libya is a very recent colonial invention (like many countries in the region) however I would argue that a progressive democratic nationalism is inclusive not separatist. Separatism would lead to the creation of several poorer countries.It would probably not be achieved without considerable bloodshed and ethnic cleansing and most importantly, it is not, despite the obvious regionalism of the uprising, something that Libyans have expressed a desire for at least as far as i know.

A national democratic struggle, one that embraced all Libyans (based on the slogan I saw written in Benghazi "there is one tribe Libyan) is one that can embrace the idea of shared identity within the struggle against Gaddafi itself and as such create a stronger sense of nation as opposed to the exclusivity of separatism or regionalism.

Leaving aside the fact that your definition of a nation sounds tautological, and that nationalism is by its very nature exclusionary, it seems to me your projecting ought onto is. Libya is by all accounts uniquely defined by its reliance on tribes as social shakers and movers. Of course I'm not saying that's the only source of fissure (city vs rural likely being one of them too).

What I'm arguing is that yes, there seemed for a moment to be a pan-Libyan movement early in the rebellion, but that didn't take off for whatever reason, and now things are as they are, and that's the reality one has to deal with. So what about Benghazi? FWIW I think the only realistic endgame is a split that mirrors the old east-west divide in the region. And that is possibly the most realistic in terms of the outcomes that this intervention might achieve as well. Short of massive ground troops entering it will still be up to the rebels to consolidate a territory outwith Gaddafi's reach.
 
Why is it? There's only two ways this can all go: a) either the mass of youth and workers who have been the battering ram of the rebellion retain their arms and organise themselves to run society in a radically different way, distributing oil revenues fairly and building up the infrastructure of the country for all, or; b) tribal/military or whatever leaders replace Gadafi with something pretty similar, ie a pyramid of patronage in which oil revenues are largely retained by an elite and disbursed according to political expediency, to buy off client groups.

b) is obviously far more likely in the absence of any socialist ideology on the ground.

I think Libya has much more chance of a stable capitalist democracy than either Iraq or Aghanistan. You are forgetting your Marxist dogma. States aren't meant to jump from autocracies to socialist paradises. They are meant to go via exploitative bourgiouse liberal capitalism first ;)
 
That's not to say that most people involved in the rebellion are party to this, or aware of it. But the central question must always be cui bono? Who benefits from a war-torn and impotent Muslim world?
Ah, Phil's blaming The Jews :D
 
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