It's kind of hard to judge cos obviously we have no idea how many mail ballots are en-route right now and what proportion of those are in battleground states. Friendly administrations have set up all kinds of mitigation measures to counteract USPS delays - drop boxes and the like - and I've seen some clear messaging in the last week not to risk the post this late on. You'd imagine that given the sheer weight of early voting these messages are cutting through and people are choosing to drop off in person or even show up on the day if they've not yet got them in the post.
A lot of studies show that More Dems are voting by mail but also that Dems are returning their ballots earlier and at a higher rate than Republicans so you'd assume that those Democratic voters are more switched on and organised with this stuff.
Millions of mail ballots haven't been returned yet but a substantial slice of those are in California where everyone's been sent one (so they're not all coming back obvs), the race is uncompetitive at the Presidential level and people have the option of returning the ballot in person today anyway.
So... I want to say not as great as perhaps has been feared? Maybe? I don't doubt we'll be hearing the F-word in relation to this (saw a video of undelivered post stacked up in a Miami-Dade mailroom a few days ago) but it's all to be seen. I still think that sheer weight of numbers is going to sweep away attempts at fucking with the vote like this
