I'm going to allow myself some optimism about a Biden administration for today.
It's true that Biden in a different time would basically be like Clinton - nominally left of centre but not really meaningfully so, kept things ticking along as normal without making them too much worse and without really doing much to improve things.
However, the 2020s are not shaping up to be anything like the 1990s or the 00s. An unprecedented rate of technological change is leading to severe social and economic dislocation, which has been accelerated by the pandemic. Long festering issues such as rising property prices, ballooning student debt, stagnant wages and the lack of jobs that can provide a decent standard of living, and increasing rate of climate disasters (among which I'd include the pandemic) are reaching the point where they are so serious that at some point in the next decade capitalism will need to restructure itself in some way to survive. You can see that even big tech capitalists are rethinking how capitalism works, hence the interest in Universal Basic Income and so on.
That is to say, I don't think that it is really possible for Biden to be another Clinton or even an Obama anymore than a President during the 1940s could just coast. We're living through a time of crisis and there has to be something different offered.
There's also a kind of generational change underway where the complacent boomers are becoming less relevant and new generations of politicians (e.g. AOC) are rising up who are a bit more radical and at a bit more in touch with how tough life is in late capitalism is. I feel like momentum is with them now in a way it wasn't under Obama and they should exert some influence on policy direction.
Biden won't stand in 2024, but if Harris serves 2024-28, there is every chance that a lot of positive stuff could get done during the 20s. It would be good if the Democratic Party has some rethink about why blue collar workers in Ohio and Michigan voted for Trump and if they try to start addressing their concerns more.
I'm being blindly optimistic here, but if there is a second term for Harris there is a good chance that a lot more could get done than we'd expect - a "green new deal", decent public healthcare, addressing student debt and fixing the housing market are some significant but plausible achievements that could happen.
Of course, maybe nothing will improve - but I think there is some hope that the 2020s will be a decade of reform akin to the post-war era. If Trump won a second term however, then the 2020s would seem more likely to be marked by a descent into fascism or civil war.
Maybe nothing will change, the Democrats will have learned nothing from their failures, and a smarter version of Trump will bring fascism to the USA in 2024.
But at least there is a sliver of hope now, whereas a second Trump term would be a disaster for the world.
Today is a good day.
It's true that Biden in a different time would basically be like Clinton - nominally left of centre but not really meaningfully so, kept things ticking along as normal without making them too much worse and without really doing much to improve things.
However, the 2020s are not shaping up to be anything like the 1990s or the 00s. An unprecedented rate of technological change is leading to severe social and economic dislocation, which has been accelerated by the pandemic. Long festering issues such as rising property prices, ballooning student debt, stagnant wages and the lack of jobs that can provide a decent standard of living, and increasing rate of climate disasters (among which I'd include the pandemic) are reaching the point where they are so serious that at some point in the next decade capitalism will need to restructure itself in some way to survive. You can see that even big tech capitalists are rethinking how capitalism works, hence the interest in Universal Basic Income and so on.
That is to say, I don't think that it is really possible for Biden to be another Clinton or even an Obama anymore than a President during the 1940s could just coast. We're living through a time of crisis and there has to be something different offered.
There's also a kind of generational change underway where the complacent boomers are becoming less relevant and new generations of politicians (e.g. AOC) are rising up who are a bit more radical and at a bit more in touch with how tough life is in late capitalism is. I feel like momentum is with them now in a way it wasn't under Obama and they should exert some influence on policy direction.
Biden won't stand in 2024, but if Harris serves 2024-28, there is every chance that a lot of positive stuff could get done during the 20s. It would be good if the Democratic Party has some rethink about why blue collar workers in Ohio and Michigan voted for Trump and if they try to start addressing their concerns more.
I'm being blindly optimistic here, but if there is a second term for Harris there is a good chance that a lot more could get done than we'd expect - a "green new deal", decent public healthcare, addressing student debt and fixing the housing market are some significant but plausible achievements that could happen.
Of course, maybe nothing will improve - but I think there is some hope that the 2020s will be a decade of reform akin to the post-war era. If Trump won a second term however, then the 2020s would seem more likely to be marked by a descent into fascism or civil war.
Maybe nothing will change, the Democrats will have learned nothing from their failures, and a smarter version of Trump will bring fascism to the USA in 2024.
But at least there is a sliver of hope now, whereas a second Trump term would be a disaster for the world.
Today is a good day.
