US election 2020 thread

[A380]

Trump gone very quiet?

 

[JTG]

its not new but it is evolving

Sure. Just an attempt to put it in context rather than treating 'Trumpism' as a curiosity that isn't connected to, say, Nixon and Reagan's Southern strategies for example.
I know that there's talk of other racial groups increasing support for this stuff but needs more evidence tbh - as well as a serious response from the US left

 

[maomao]

a campaign in which Trump only got 8% of the Black vote and killed his highest-profile Black supporter is being hailed as the GOP's best performance in 60 years,

It was 8% of black women and 18% of black men wasn't it?

 

[ska invita]

Sure. Just an attempt to put it in context rather than treating 'Trumpism' as a curiosity that isn't connected to, say, Nixon and Reagan's Southern strategies for example.
I know that there's talk of other racial groups increasing support for this stuff but needs more evidence tbh - as well as a serious response from the US left

totally - that Friendly Fascism book about the US right is 40 years old, and that was already documenting something in motion
IMO the biggest difference is growing economic hardship, the rights inability of offer financial reward/better living standards to parts of the working class (at the cost of other parts) - its an economic system in crisis. That changes the nature of the offer and message profoundly.

 

[NoXion]

It awful.

Fitting though. A lot of superhero stuff is bland.

 

[Yossarian]

It was 8% of black women and 18% of black men wasn't it?

I think Edison Research put it around there - Associated Press put it at 8%, up 2% from 2016 - 12% of Black men and 6% of Black women,. NPR Choice page

 

[Smokeandsteam]

It was 8% of black women and 18% of black men wasn't it?

Here is the exit poll data. This indicates falling support for Trump among white men and growing support among black (from a very low base) and Latino voters

 

[Roadkill]

Graun reporting that the Murdoch media seem to be abandoning Trump.

The new messaging appears to be closely coordinated, and it includes an appeal to Trump to preserve his “legacy” by showing grace in defeat. The message is being carried on Fox News and in the Wall Street Journal and the New York Post – all outlets avidly consumed by Trump himself, especially Fox.

One Fox News host, Laura Ingraham, an intimate of the president ever since she spoke at the 2016 Republican national convention, made an astounding statement that seemed directed at Trump personally, advising him to accept defeat “if and when that does happen” with “grace and composure” and appealing to his sense of his own legacy.

Ingraham said in part: “If and when it’s time to accept an unfavourable outcome in this election, and we hope it never comes, but if and when that does happen, president Trump needs to do it with the same grace and composure he demonstrated at that town hall with Savannah Guthrie. So many people remarked about his tone and presence. Exactly what he needs.

Exactly when has Donald Trump ever done anything with grace and composure?

 

[JTG]

I think Edison Research put it around there - Associated Press put it at 8%, up 2% from 2016 - 12% of Black men and 6% of Black women,. NPR Choice page

Is there any regional breakdown at all? Just wondering if say, rural Southern blacks have stayed solid D while the urban vote has changed

 

[JTG]

Graun reporting that the Murdoch media seem to be abandoning Trump.



Exactly when has Donald Trump ever done anything with grace and composure?

Murdoch despises losers as much as Trump does

 

[killer b]

Murdoch despises losers as much as Trump does

It isn't that, he's just thinking of the georgia run off

 

[The39thStep]

totally - that Friendly Fascism book about the US right is 40 years old, and that was already documenting something in motion
IMO the biggest difference is growing economic hardship, the rights inability of offer financial reward/better living standards to parts of the working class (at the cost of other parts) - its an economic system in crisis. That changes the nature of the offer and message profoundly.

Trouble is with these looking back something in motion things is that it isnt a linear path nor was it inevitable. Did anyone on here argue that when Obama was elected that a candidate like Trump would/could win the election?

 

[frogwoman]

Is there any regional breakdown at all? Just wondering if say, rural Southern blacks have stayed solid D while the urban vote has changed

I think that's right .

 

[Yossarian]

Is there any regional breakdown at all? Just wondering if say, rural Southern blacks have stayed solid D while the urban vote has changed

I haven't seen any regional breakdown, but it definitely seems like Georgia voters weren't part of the trend.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Here is the exit poll data. This indicates falling support for Trump among white men and growing support among black (from a very low base) and Latino voters

I can't link to that. But how does it weight for mail-in votes? Exit polls aren't a straightforward thing in this election, and missing the on-the-day bias might explain the difference between this and the other stuff.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

This is interesting, concerning populism:

Thread by @EmporersNewC on Thread Reader App

Thread by @EmporersNewC: 1. So, why does it matter that Joe Biden’s electoral college win does not rely on Pennsylvania? 2. You will notice that Trump’s focus on electoral fraud is directed at places like Philadelp...…

threadreaderapp.com

it seems to me to be another rehash of elite fear of grassroots politics. A default assumption that anything - ideas/demands/impulses -
emerging from below is automatically reactionary, simplistic and bigoted. The link with Gina Miller and Brexit is woeful.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

I can't link to that. But how does it weight for mail-in votes? Exit polls aren't a straightforward thing in this election, and missing the on-the-day bias might explain the difference between this and the other stuff.

Quick answer is I don’t know. I suspect we’ll need to wait a little longer for data that tells the full story

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I think Edison Research put it around there - Associated Press put it at 8%, up 2% from 2016 - 12% of Black men and 6% of Black women,. NPR Choice page

One thing Trump got right, perhaps the last thing he got right, was when he called himself Mr Brexit back in 2016. Those demographic breakdowns are strikingly similar.

I don't see too much for Republican strategists not to be worried about. Were it not for their inbuilt advantage in the system, they'd be seriously fucked. Demographic trends are not their friends at the moment.

For Democrat strategists, surely the message is pretty clear. There is a group of people, not poor but not rich (or at least not feeling themselves to be rich), uneasy, insecure, and looking over their shoulders, who are being hoovered up by Republicans. Even if they themselves might oppose bringing it in, universal healthcare would take away one of the biggest things they are insecure about.

 

[JTG]

I haven't seen any regional breakdown, but it definitely seems like Georgia voters weren't part of the trend.

I don't see this would happen anywhere in the South tbh. Black voters in the South know exactly how the battle lines are drawn and that hasn't changed for centuries

 

[bimble]

idk about all this focus on the apparent increased share of votes he got from black people, i think you'd have to know did they believe him that the other side were communists who were going to take all their money in taxes, did they align with him on being anti-lockdown, those sorts of things, i think those will turn out to have been important to how many people outside his established base did vote for trump this time.
Even as the infection numbers are peaking there a lot of people are clearly 'over' the whole boring virus thing, and that might end up having actually drawn people to him rather than what everyone expected, all the movement being the other way.

 

[JTG]

I don't see too much for Republican strategists not to be worried about. Were it not for their inbuilt advantage in the system, they'd be seriously fucked. Demographic trends are not their friends at the moment.

They're not but the impact of those trends on party support proceeds at a glacial pace and is slowed down every time the GOP (or Tories for that matter) find a way to fuck about with it. Perhaps they always will idk

 

[JTG]

idk about all this focus on the apparent increased share of votes he got from black people, i think you'd have to know did they believe him that the other side were communists who were going to take all their money in taxes, did they align with him on being anti-lockdown, those sorts of things, i think those will turn out to have been important to how many people outside his established base did vote for trump this time.
Even as the infection numbers are peaking there a lot of people are clearly 'over' the whole boring virus thing, and that might end up having actually drawn people to him rather than what everyone expected, all the movement being the other way.

There were swings in all kinds of different places, geographical and demographical. There always are but this election seems, perhaps, more complex than most

 

[littlebabyjesus]

idk about all this focus on the apparent increased share of votes he got from black people, i think you'd have to know did they believe him that the other side were communists who were going to take all their money in taxes, did they align with him on being anti-lockdown, those sorts of things, i think those will turn out to have been important to how many people outside his established base did vote for trump this time.

Plus if it is a shift, it's a small one. And it's still somewhere close to 90% Democrat. I think it's a non-story really. Same with the supposed loss of Latino support. That's a particularly diverse group of people, and it's still strongly Dem. There are no historic shifts going on there.

The real issue is why do so many older middle-income white people with no college education vote Republican. That's a bigger group of people, although it is shrinking.

 

[frogwoman]

Well a majority of Americans do agree with wearing masks and at least some covid measures, and some Republican run places have been very cautious about opening up. If you look at photos of the audience in trump rallies, almost all are wearing masks in some areas (but not all) .

So maybe even people who supported masks and strong covid measures looked to how the covid situation was in their area , rather than what Trump himself said about it, when deciding what to vote?

 

[bimble]

Plus if it is a shift, it's a small one. And it's still somewhere close to 90% Democrat. I think it's a non-story really. Same with the supposed loss of Latino support. That's a particularly diverse group of people, and it's still strongly Dem. There are no historic shifts going on there.

The real issue is why do so many older middle-income white people with no college education vote Republican. That's a bigger group of people, although it is shrinking.

yep. I think I read that they reckon white women, again, the majority of them went for trump. That is more interesting to me, as a thing to try to understand.

 

[planetgeli]

Some have argued on here that Trumpism might just melt away but this article touches on the question is it possible to have Trumpism without Trump ie populist conservatism that appeals to the working class.

I think you mean me (maybe others too, but I'll speak for myself).

I think Trump did so well in this election (and 2016) with a large dose of 'cult of the personality' more than any populism. As the article you quote says, he all but gave up campaigning on any policy in the final days. Instead he was relying on the hero worship he's cultivated and demanded. For the Republican Party to reproduce that they need another Trump more than they need some form of conservative populism which didn't really show itself in his administration and its policy.

For a significant proportion of his votes (ignoring RP voters who would vote for a donkey wearing a red rosette) they weren't voting for particularly populist ideas against the elite (ironically ideas, if they were there, that were put up by a member of an elite) - they were (to paraphrase a Tea Party congressman from 2016, but even more relevant to now) "voting for the craziest son of a bitch in the race - and Trump won Best in Class".

despite all the talk of Trump provoking a “political realignment” around an economically populist brand of conservatism, his signature legislative achievement—the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act—is indistinguishable from what one might have expected from a Jeb Bush administration. Add in steel tariffs and minor tweaks to NAFTA, and we’re back to Bush 43’s first term.

The most common thread I've seen in Trump's supporters language hasn't been about policy - it's been "he speaks our language". They like his style, his personality. I think populist ideas come second to this and I'm not even sure it's a close race.

That's why I think Trumpism, without Trump, or another Trump-like, could melt away.

 

[The39thStep]

idk about all this focus on the apparent increased share of votes he got from black people, i think you'd have to know did they believe him that the other side were communists who were going to take all their money in taxes, did they align with him on being anti-lockdown, those sorts of things, i think those will turn out to have been important to how many people outside his established base did vote for trump this time.
Even as the infection numbers are peaking there a lot of people are clearly 'over' the whole boring virus thing, and that might end up having actually drawn people to him rather than what everyone expected, all the movement being the other way.

The anti communist stuff will find a resonance in most groupings tbh but lets not be surprised that the colour of ones skin protects people from having conservative veiws and beleiving its possible to make it in society given a helping hand . Trump also talked about rising wages, improving employment and funding opportunity through his Platinum Plan .The fact that Trump improved on his votes even after the BLM campaign says something.

 

[JTG]

(ignoring RP voters who would vote for a donkey wearing a blue rosette

Can't see any Republicans voting for donkeys in blue. Elephants in red maybe

 

[Yossarian]

If you look at photos of the audience in trump rallies, almost all are wearing masks in some areas (but not all)

The rule for indoor rallies reportedly was that people standing behind Trump, who would be seen the most on TV , were the only ones required to wear masks.

 

[frogwoman]

I've seen pictures of other Trump rallies where nobody's in a mask tho.,