US election 2020 thread

[krtek a houby]

Steve Bannon's twitter account has been suspended

Someone on Twitter noted that both Pence and Jared+Ivanka have gone pretty quiet, while Eric and Don Jr have gone full conspiraloon.

Some Graun writer referred to them as Uday and Qusay

 

[cupid_stunt]

Morning all, reporting for duty, despite the banging head.

What a fucking mess, I stayed up last night expecting at least one or two states to declare at any moment, yet here we are hours later with the EC tally exactly the same. It's great that Biden has edged ahead in Georgia, but he needs a lot more to make it totally safe.

FFS Pennsylvania, pull your bloody finger out.

 

[MickiQ]

Biden now ahead in Georgia!

Over 900 votes according to the NYT. Got it permanently open in a tab at the moment, I really ought to offer my client a refund on their bill for the past couple of days I have been so distracted by this

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Biden now ahead in Georgia!

Something like 5,000 military votes to come. They're not actually a dead cert for Trump (pre-election polls put him behind with overseas military), but they probably do lean his way. Biden could do with a cushion of at least 2,000.

 

[Dogsauce]

.There absolutely needs to be a political (not just electoral) response to the radical right and that response will only be successful if it is capable of recognising what the populist radical right actually is.

wilfully dishonest and determined to win at all costs? Huge opaque financial backing?

I mean how do you counter that, without behaving the same? Pushing more deceptive Canary-like articles out? I’m genuinely not sure how this can be taken on without throwing any integrity out of the window and playing the same game. I see a lot of worthy words about community organising and so on, and perhaps that has been helping in the US with stuff like BLM, but in this country the cynicism towards anything like that seems overwhelming. Where can it come from?

 

[littlebabyjesus]

FFS Pennsylvania, pull your bloody finger out.

tbf, they did say, right at the start, that they would be done by Friday.

 

[killer b]

I think that once the republican machine withdraws - once it's become clear there's no route to victory - it'll become clear how overstated the number of people who're prepared to put their bodies on the line for Trump is. There will be violence, no doubt - and because with the right weapons a small number of people can inflict a great deal of damage, it's possible some of the violence may have significant casualties. But they are no army of trumpists standing by, ready for a revolution - just a small number of right-wing terrorists.

The Republicans have a real big problem here: in January there's almost certainly going to be a run-off election in Georgia for the two Senate seats and control of the senate - what serves their election prospects best here? For the run off to be held against a backdrop of Trump thrashing about and refusing to leave office and occasional paramilitary violence? Some of this isn't under their control, but I'd guess that they will try to shut this down as quickly as possible. Once the result is clear.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I know PA ain't done yet, but I'm calling it. Well done to JTG. I was wobbling a bit at the idea of clawing back that lead, but it will be done and done easily, as predicted at the start by JTG.

 

[two sheds]

Praying, by the looks of it.

zombie apocalypse

 

[Kaka Tim]

I think that once the republican machine withdraws - once it's become clear there's no route to victory - it'll become clear how overstated the number of people who're prepared to put their bodies on the line for Trump is. There will be violence, no doubt - and because with the right weapons a small number of people can inflict a great deal of damage, it's possible some of the violence may have significant casualties. But they are no army of trumpists standing by, ready for a revolution - just a small number of right-wing terrorists.

The Republicans have a real big problem here: in January there's almost certainly going to be a run-off election in Georgia for the two Senate seats and control of the senate - what serves their election prospects best here? For the run off to be held against a backdrop of Trump thrashing about and refusing to leave office and occasional paramilitary violence? Some of this isn't under their control, but I'd guess that they will try to shut this down as quickly as possible. Once the result is clear.

I definitely think trump being forced to stand down (on "health grounds" perhaps) and pence managing the transition is within the realms of possibility. Problem is a lot of them are cowards scared of enraging trumps base. But there has to be a point where leaving the shit flinging baboon in the white house any longer is too damaging for them to tolerate. You'd think that point was reached last night.

 

[Raheem]

Under the current dynamics, if there were an attempt at a coup by faithless electors, I would guess the next move would be for Congress to void or gainsay those votes and, if needs to, it can strip the supreme court of jurisdiction to interfere. So I doubt it could be done without also controlling Congress.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I think that once the republican machine withdraws - once it's become clear there's no route to victory - it'll become clear how overstated the number of people who're prepared to put their bodies on the line for Trump is. There will be violence, no doubt - and because with the right weapons a small number of people can inflict a great deal of damage, it's possible some of the violence may have significant casualties. But they are no army of trumpists standing by, ready for a revolution - just a small number of right-wing terrorists.

The Republicans have a real big problem here: in January there's almost certainly going to be a run-off election in Georgia for the two Senate seats and control of the senate - what serves their election prospects best here? For the run off to be held against a backdrop of Trump thrashing about and refusing to leave office and occasional paramilitary violence? Some of this isn't under their control, but I'd guess that they will try to shut this down as quickly as possible. Once the result is clear.

Do you know how closely tied the two GOP candiates are to Trump? That could be awkward for them. At the very least, the Dem candidates will have the full backing of the entire party across the country, there should be energy to get the Dem vote out, etc. A divided GOP at war with itself for the next two months is just the ticket really in that narrow regard. Not so great in terms of stopping innocent people being killed, which I'm sure is going to happen somewhere after last night's performance.

 

[killer b]

Under the current dynamics, if there were an attempt at a coup by faithless electors, I would guess the next move would be for Congress to void or gainsay those votes and, if needs to, it can strip the supreme court of jurisdiction to interfere. So I doubt it could be done without also controlling Congress.

but the republicans do control congress, and will still control it regardless until January?

(not that I think it'll happen - but Congress isn't the barrier)

 

[mauvais]

I think that once the republican machine withdraws - once it's become clear there's no route to victory - it'll become clear how overstated the number of people who're prepared to put their bodies on the line for Trump is. There will be violence, no doubt - and because with the right weapons a small number of people can inflict a great deal of damage, it's possible some of the violence may have significant casualties. But they are no army of trumpists standing by, ready for a revolution - just a small number of right-wing terrorists.

IMO whilst at times it looks like there is some vaguely coherent idea of 'resistance', there is no actual ideology, no goal or clarity of objective, and it's hard to sustain anything without that.

 

[Raheem]

but the republicans do control congress, and will still control it regardless until January?

(not that I think it'll happen - but Congress isn't the barrier)

No, they control the senate, but it's the house that does the counting of electoral votes.

 

[killer b]

No, they control the senate, but it's the house that does the counting of electoral votes.

ah yeah. sorry, I got mixed up.

 

[The39thStep]

Under the current dynamics, if there were an attempt at a coup by faithless electors, I would guess the next move would be for Congress to void or gainsay those votes and, if needs to, it can strip the supreme court of jurisdiction to interfere. So I doubt it could be done without also controlling Congress.

Probably the first time I've seen the word 'gainsay' on this board

 

[littlebabyjesus]

There are actually pretty powerful forces in the US that want the system to be seen to be working. Once PA is called for Biden, he can claim victory, and that's that. Whatever nastiness ensues, Trump is out, Biden is in. For the GOP it is simply a question of how they manage themselves during that process. I'm sure they are going to abandon Trump very quickly - hence the silence from most of them at the moment.

 

[danny la rouge]

Under the current dynamics, if there were an attempt at a coup by faithless electors, I would guess the next move would be for Congress to void or gainsay those votes and, if needs to, it can strip the supreme court of jurisdiction to interfere. So I doubt it could be done without also controlling Congress.

Indeed. And in the scenario JTG flew as a thought experiment - of duplicate delegations - it’d be even easier for the establishment to say “no, you’re a rogue element and illegitimate”.

Of course, that plays into the hands of the conspiracy crowd, but as others have been saying, it remains to be seen just how dedicated or numerous that constituency is.

I agree with those saying that the smoke will largely clear when the result becomes callable. It’s the drawn out nature of the uncertainty that’s unusual here.

 

[Raheem]

ah yeah. sorry, I got mixed up.

No, I think I'm mixed up too. I googled it, and it's actually a special committee of both houses chaired by the Vice President. So, that would presumably be under Republican control. In theory, it would be able to just let the rogue votes stand.

 

[danny la rouge]

No, I think I'm mixed up too. I googled it, and it's actually a special committee of both houses chaired by the Vice President. So, that would presumably be under Republican control. In theory, it would be able to just let the rogue votes stand.

The specifics aren’t that important. The establishment finally agreeing the result is the point.

Oh, BBC calling Georgia for Biden.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

No, I think I'm mixed up too. I googled it, and it's actually a special committee of both houses chaired by the Vice President. So, that would presumably be under Republican control. In theory, it would be able to just let the rogue votes stand.

In such a scenario, Pence would abandon Trump. He's already signalled it. He did not stand next to Trump last night. After Trump's insane rant, his response was to say that 'I agree with the President that all legal votes should be counted', and nothing more. Very clearly leaving himself wriggle room.

 

[bimble]

This is well worth a listen if you have time, did post it before but now is even more relevant. Goes into the twelfth amendment and its lack of clarity on what happens if a state does end up declaring two different winners, which is entirely possible. What If? | Radiolab | WNYC Studios

 

[Cloo]

I do worry for the safety of people involved in counting votes in some areas.

 

[redsquirrel]

I mean how do you counter that, without behaving the same? Pushing more deceptive Canary-like articles out? I’m genuinely not sure how this can be taken on without throwing any integrity out of the window and playing the same game. I see a lot of worthy words about community organising and so on, and perhaps that has been helping in the US with stuff like BLM, but in this country the cynicism towards anything like that seems overwhelming. Where can it come from?

Well the question you asks depends on your politics, are you looking for an electoral response or a political one?

Even if Biden (or Sanders) had won in a landslide, the Democrats had taken the Senate and started changing the electoral system that would not have been a political response. Creating barriers to hinder the populist radical right getting elected has not worked in France, I doubt if Le Pen will be elected President in 2022 but the RN are now a solid party with a resilient vote.

For me the response has to be developed from class politics, it can only be developed by the working class itself. That doesn't mean that people simply stand around waiting for such a response, but rather searching out and finding issues where a class response can be strengthened. That is going to be a long process, but after all it took decades for the RN to get to where it is today.

 

[Dogsauce]

The specifics aren’t that important. The establishment finally agreeing the result is the point.

Oh, BBC calling Georgia for Biden.

given they’re in recount territory and awaiting the counting of military ballots, that seems premature.

It is quite a result though, given the despondency of two days ago, taking GA, PA and possibly AZ looks pretty good overall. Polls looked pretty tight on PA compared to others, I think the ‘home state’ thing might have helped get Biden over the line, as well as great organising in the cities.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

I do worry for the safety of people involved in counting votes in some areas.

Yep. While my first response to Trump last night was to guffaw and take the piss, my second response was 'he's just cost someone their life'.

 

[Raheem]

In such a scenario, Pence would abandon Trump. He's already signalled it. He did not stand next to Trump last night. After Trump's insane rant, his response was to say that 'I agree with the President that all legal votes should be counted', and nothing more. Very clearly leaving himself wriggle room.

Yes, it's not actually going to happen. The Republicans would abandon Trump. But in theory, it seems like it could happen, in some other scenario where the party of the defeated president were differently motivated.

 

[Raheem]

Oh, BBC calling Georgia for Biden.

Looks like they are anticipating it, but haven't actually called it (on the website at least).

 

[Wilf]

He'll never conceed.

I'm taking my earlier prediction that he won't attend Biden's inauguration as so solid as to need no further thought. He'll be playing golf or doing a rally with his ever diminishing band of followers.