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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-25

I'm not entirely convinced that Ukraine is genuinely "running out of soldiers", rather than this being another ploy by the Ukrainian government to get additional Western support.

But if they really are and if a significant factor in that really is large numbers of Ukrainians choosing to leave rather than fight, I don't think sending in troops from NATO countries is any sort of solution at all.
What is a sort of solution that you'd prefer?
 
Requests for foreign troops will be interesting. Which countries would even consider sending their own soldiers?
I can't imagine any being in a massive rush to do so tbf. Despite the hyperbole that occasionally surrounds this topic, no-one is in a mssive rush to kick off WWIII.
 
AP investigation finds that Russia deliberately concealed a death toll in the hundreds of possibly thousands after causing dam collapse


The evidence is still hidden in Oleshky: documents detailing the dead, plots where they are buried, photos, the death certificates collected in secret.

“I hid all these papers behind closed doors so that no one knew,” Svitlana said. “With time everything is forgotten, some people might leave, their life will change, but with those papers — no one will forget. It was important to save them.”

She is waiting for Ukraine to liberate the territory so the truth can come to light. She cleared her phone and left documents behind to keep them out of the hands of Russians who routinely stop Ukrainians leaving occupied areas and conduct thorough security checks.



 
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The blockade by Polish farmers and drivers at the Ukrainian borders ( which has also attracted support from Hungarian and Slovenian drivers) continues. The dispute is about imports of cheap Ukrainian wheat and competition from Ukrainian drivers who are not subject to the same rules on working hours and wages as drivers from the European Union. The Poles also say they are treated unfairly by Ukrainian customs officials who make them wait while Ukrainian drivers get preference.

 
The Russian negotiating stance is “give in and drop your weapons and we’ll be in Romania before we actually speak to your government, also your government is not acceptable so here’s a guy Putin skis with to take over”

Like we know that’s what Russias position is as everyone from Putin to the stooge on the Russian news channels keeps saying it. So.
 
I don't really know what "should" happen however I'd rather see a NATO nation send its own troops than extradite Ukrainians to be conscripted.

I would ask them why it's the right thing to do, to extradite Ukrainians, and I'd ask why the same reasoning would not apply to their own troops.
A nato nation. You'd like to see one nato country declare war on Russia. Not the whole alliance just one nato country. That's really really fucking stupid. Which nato country did you see answering your call? France? Luxembourg? Montenegro?
 
You think Putin is trustworthy and open to that?.
How do you see this war ending? Unconditional surrender by one of the belligerents? Or do you think it'll slowly peter out and no actual formal termination will be necessary? Perhaps you think it'll be like the Korean war, a conflict that's never formally ended.
 
I'd be interested to hear what everyone dismissing the idea of negotiation out of hand think might be the way this conflict will eventually come to an end.

There seems little chance of one side completely defeating the other, so if we rule out a negotiated peace presumably it will just continue for ever, or at least until the US Congress decides it won't support any further aid to Ukraine.
 
I'd be interested to hear what everyone dismissing the idea of negotiation out of hand think might be the way this conflict will eventually come to an end.

There seems little chance of one side completely defeating the other, so if we rule out a negotiated peace presumably it will just continue for ever, or at least until the US Congress decides it won't support any further aid to Ukraine.

Negotiations will happen but the only way Ukraine makes it happen is for Russia to do a cost benefit analysis and say ok we’ve done enough.

The onus is not on Ukraine to negotiate its on Russia to do so. At the moments it’s objectives are “destroy Ukraine”
 
No wonder this thread is 1000 pages as we have the same conversation over and over.

The war will be resolved with a treaty and the new border will be maintained by force, not trust or good-faith, same as in every other war.
Putin is not some unique figure in world history, this is all standard stuff.
Outside of the Winning delusions there's been a near-enough stalemate on the southern border for coming up to two years now
 
You'd have to be some kind of idiot to go into negotiations with Putin given his propensity to lie and welch on his promises. It would be a total waste of time.
The Americans don't think so, having reached an agreement with the russians over the international space station - Russia, NASA agree to continue joint ISS flights until 2025 and the Americans are reportedly shifting their stance toward bolstering the Ukrainian position in future negotiations - The Biden Administration Is Quietly Shifting Its Strategy in Ukraine. You'd have to be some kind of idiot to believe peace or some armistice would not be preceded by talks with the Russian government. I'm also rather surprised by your use of welch. It has, as I thought you of all people here would know, derogatory connotations - see eg Peer apologises for using term 'welching' in Lords debate
 
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Fuck Russia.

Two Russian anti-war poets, one of whom accused police of rape, have been sentenced to lengthy prison terms on charges of “inciting hatred” toward soldiers, the independent news website Novaya Gazeta Europe reported Thursday.

Artyom Kamardin and Yegor Shtovba were detained in September 2022 after criticizing President Vladimir Putin’s “partial” mobilization for the war in Ukraine during poetry readings on central Moscow's Triumfalnaya Ploshchad.

During the 1950s and 1960s, Triumfalnaya Ploshchad — then known as Mayakovsky Ploshchad after the renowned poet — served as a key gathering spot for unofficial poetry readings and subsequently for expressing dissent.

Kamardin was reported to have been hospitalized following his arrest after police allegedly beat him and raped him with a dumbbell.

 
A nato nation. You'd like to see one nato country declare war on Russia. Not the whole alliance just one nato country. That's really really fucking stupid. Which nato country did you see answering your call? France? Luxembourg? Montenegro?
It would appear that you are suffering from some kind of hallucinations when reading what I have actually written.
 
No wonder this thread is 1000 pages as we have the same conversation over and over.

The war will be resolved with a treaty and the new border will be maintained by force, not trust or good-faith, same as in every other war.
Putin is not some unique figure in world history, this is all standard stuff.
Outside of the Winning delusions there's been a near-enough stalemate on the southern border for coming up to two years now
Southern border?
 
Direct C&P from the ISW report for 27th December 2023 [ref : Institute for the Study of War ]

Ukrainian drone footage published on December 27 showed another Russian execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) near Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast. The geolocated video shows Russian servicemen shooting three Ukrainian soldiers whom Russian forces captured in a tree line west of Verbove (east of Robotyne). The video later depicts one Russian soldier shooting an already dead Ukrainian serviceman again at close range. The Ukrainian Prosecutor General‘s Office announced that it opened an investigation into Russian forces violating the laws and customs of war in addition to premeditated murder. The Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Office stated this incident occurred on an unspecified date in December 2023. ISW previously reported observing drone footage of Russian servicemen using Ukrainian POWs as human shields near Robotyne on December 13. The killing of POWs violates Article III of the Geneva Convention on the laws of armed conflict.

That's just one - of many - reason why Ukraine needs Russia out of their 1991 borders ...
 
Direct C&P from the ISW report for 27th December 2023 [ref : Institute for the Study of War ]

Ukrainian drone footage published on December 27 showed another Russian execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) near Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast. The geolocated video shows Russian servicemen shooting three Ukrainian soldiers whom Russian forces captured in a tree line west of Verbove (east of Robotyne). The video later depicts one Russian soldier shooting an already dead Ukrainian serviceman again at close range. The Ukrainian Prosecutor General‘s Office announced that it opened an investigation into Russian forces violating the laws and customs of war in addition to premeditated murder. The Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Office stated this incident occurred on an unspecified date in December 2023. ISW previously reported observing drone footage of Russian servicemen using Ukrainian POWs as human shields near Robotyne on December 13. The killing of POWs violates Article III of the Geneva Convention on the laws of armed conflict.

That's just one - of many - reason why Ukraine needs Russia out of their 1991 borders ...
The bloodletting in Ukraine, should Russia prevail, does not bear thinking about. I fear that it would make the 3 Holodomors look like lunch arriving 5 minutes late.
 
You'd have to be some kind of idiot to go into negotiations with Putin given his propensity to lie and welch on his promises. It would be a total waste of time.
This is true, but it doesn't mean you can't have a negotiated peace. It just needs to come with appropriate incentives for Russia to keep to their side and penalties if they don't.

Having said that I'm not convinced you can negotiate even on those terms, as it assume rational actors and the world is becoming ever more irrational it seems.
 
ISW have repeatedly said in their various daily reports & other "backgrounders" that Putin retains his maximalist objectives ie the destruction of Ukraine as a country.
Furthermore, ISW have repeatedly assessed that Putin would not negotiate in good faith, despite any noises that Lavrov might make.

{ as has been proved by his invasions of Ukrainian territory after signing the Budapest Memoranda in 1994
- the first article of which states
1. Respect the signatory's independence and sovereignty in the existing borders
and the second states, in part ...
2. Refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of the signatories to the memorandum ...}
 
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