gosub
~#
Given the situation would be a good time to cut down on food waste. Though just as likely to lead to more people hoarde buying the wrong sort of stuff
Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-25
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
teqniq
DisMembered
Seems like e lovely guy:
E2a his Wiki entry is less than flattering. The word butcher is used a couple of times in relation to Chechnya :
en.wikipedia.org
E2a his Wiki entry is less than flattering. The word butcher is used a couple of times in relation to Chechnya :
Vladimir Shamanov - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org
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teqniq
DisMembered
Russia's change of tactics - essentially raze everything to the ground seems to be working in their favour right now.
Ukraine is calling for longer range weapons to counter this and now Biden after initially agreeing seems to be having second thoughts.
edition.cnn.com
'I watched from afar Russia’s latest merciless assault on Severodonetsk'
Quentin Sommerville describes relentless artillery bombardment in Donbas ahead of Russian forces entering Severodonetsk.
www.bbc.com
Ukraine is calling for longer range weapons to counter this and now Biden after initially agreeing seems to be having second thoughts.
US President Biden says he won't send rockets to Ukraine that could reach Russia
As the battle for the Donbas region heats up, Russian forces are trying to surround Ukrainian troops in Lysychansk and Severodonetsk. Follow live news updates here.
Spandex
A crazy bulbous punchbag of sound
The US based Institute for the Study of War have some thoughts on that:
The Russians are paying a price for their current tactical success that is out of proportion to any real operational or strategic benefit they can hope to receive. Severodonetsk itself is important at this stage in the war primarily because it is the last significant population center in Luhansk Oblast that the Russians do not control. Seizing it will let Moscow declare that it has secured Luhansk Oblast fully but will give Russia no other significant military or economic benefit. This is especially true because Russian forces are destroying the city as they assault it and will control its rubble if they capture it. Taking Severodonetsk can open a Russian ground line of communication (GLOC) to support operations to the west, but the Russians have failed to secure much more advantageous GLOCs from Izyum partly because they have concentrated so much on Severodonetsk.
Russian progress around Severdonetsk results largely from the fact that Moscow has concentrated forces, equipment, and materiel drawn from all other axes on this one objective. Russian troops have been unable to make progress on any other axes for weeks and have largely not even tried to do so. Ukrainian defenders have inflicted fearful casualties on the Russian attackers around Severodonetsk even so. Moscow will not be able to recoup large amounts of effective combat power even if it seizes Severdonetsk, because it is expending that combat power frivolously on taking the city.
Full ISW update here: link
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Flavour
hang the bankers
The Russians are clearly able to do this though, to concentrate all of their forces on one target, in this case Severodonetsk, and destroy it, while the Ukrainians are not able to strike back significantly in the South. It all points to Russia holding whatever they seize, rubble as it may be.
8ball
#notallwomenz
strung out
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Ukraine are currently using this concentration of Russian forces to counter attack and take back ground in the south.
Spandex
A crazy bulbous punchbag of sound
Have you got any links about that? The only thing I've seen about Ukrainian counter attacks in the South is this from a couple of days ago (from the ISW site):
New reports confirmed that Ukrainian forces conducted a successful limited counterattack near the Kherson-Mykolaiv oblast border on May 28, forcing Russian forces onto the defensive. This Ukrainian counterattack is likely intended to disrupt Russian efforts to establish strong defensive positions along the Southern Axis. While the Ukrainian counterattack does not appear likely to retake substantial territory in the near term, it will likely disrupt Russian operations and potentially force Russia to deploy reinforcements to the Kherson region, which is predominantly held by sub-standard units. Ukrainian counterattacks may additionally slow Russian efforts to consolidate administrative control of occupied southern Ukraine.
strung out
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strung out
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Some more reports here
And a longer thread here collating info.
And a longer thread here collating info.
cupid_stunt
Where's the bloody sun?
Sky News' expert with his map has just been saying the Ukrainians are pushing back the Russians and are getting closer to the city of Kherson in the south, and are claiming they are getting close to taking it back, but he thinks that may be over optimistic, and even if they do, it could be a problem holding it, because of the amount of Russian resources in the area.
strung out
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Yes.
8ball
#notallwomenz
Aside from massive escalation, I mean. Hence the 'hope' word.
strung out
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I believe the intention from Ukraine is to hold various defensive lines in the face of the major Russian offensive in the East, then once the Russian operations have culminated, to counterattack and regain territory. They've already regained territory around Kharkiv, and are conducting another counter attack around Kherson.
We'll see soon how successful those are, but the hope and will is definitely there, albeit via a long and attritional summer in all likelihood.
8ball
#notallwomenz
That's effectively "the Russians losing the will to fight / being beaten back without a major escalation".
I'd love that to happen, but I'm having trouble believing it is likely.
And what then?
strung out
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What are you having trouble believing? That it's possible to beat them back or that they won't majorly escalate if they are?
nogojones
spelling is overrated
Apart from a few bit's of artillery, I've not noticed much in the way of heavy armour that has been given to the Ukrainians (e.g. lots of tanks from Poland) being used. When Ukrainian losses are reported a lot of the armour is old stuff that they had prior to the invasion.
Maybe these are being held back for future offensives? maybe they're just training new crews and soldiers in how to use them, or maybe they're down the Lviv boot sales on a Sunday? I suspect the poor fuckers in the front line are facing down overwhelming odds, just to degrade the Russians and bide a bit more time.
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MrCurry
right after this urgent rest
Anyone know how the air war is going? Does one side or the other control the skies in eastern Ukraine, or are there continuing skirmishes?
I remember at an earlier stage Russia was thought to be keeping their modern air assets back - did they start to use them.?
I remember at an earlier stage Russia was thought to be keeping their modern air assets back - did they start to use them.?
8ball
#notallwomenz
Both.
What is the scenario that you are presenting as feasible? That the Russians just slink back to their border?
What is the positive outcome you have in mind?
Chz
Stark Raving Sane
The Ukrainian forces don't have a lot of AA, but they have enough and it's decent quality stuff too. So the Russians have air control, but they don't have air supremacy. They've been forced to fly high out of the range of any Manpads (and been punished when they don't) and it's limited the effectiveness of the support they can offer, given that they don't have a limitless supply of modern smart munitions.
strung out
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If the Ukrainian counter attacks retake territory currently held by Russia, what other option do they have than retreating back to the border?Both.
What is the scenario that you are presenting as feasible? That the Russians just slink back to their border?
What is the positive outcome you have in mind?
What major escalation are you worried about? Trying to take Kyiv again?
They're not going to use nukes.
8ball
#notallwomenz
If the Ukrainian counter attacks retake territory currently held by Russia, what other option do they have than retreating back to the border?
What major escalation are you worried about? Trying to take Kyiv again?
Seriously? That’s all you’ve got?
Not much hope from the sound of it.
Their choices are not just artillery and nukes. They have already been covering tactical retreats with mines, and have deeper minefields in places they have held for some time. They have other options too.
They have already shown total disregard in terms of ‘rules of war’ (such as they are).
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maomao
普費斯
Lot of certainty about this lately. Failure in Ukraine might not be an existential threat to Russia but it certainly would be for the regime.
8ball
#notallwomenz
B
And let’s not forget that they do not have demographics on their side. This is a shit or bust operation for Putin.
And let’s not forget that they do not have demographics on their side. This is a shit or bust operation for Putin.
splonkydoo
Well-Known Member
Seriously? You realise if this happen
Shit or bust, and if bust - then very likely to be replaced by someone even more hardline than him. There are very possible consequences of what that may look like which is not hopeful at all.
Shit or bust, and if bust - then very likely to be replaced by someone even more hardline than him. There are very possible consequences of what that may look like which is not hopeful at all.
strung out
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The Ukrainian army have already shown themselves to be far better led, organised and motivated than the Russian army. They've had significant strategic victories ever since the first days of the war, and Russia are having to concentrate significant amounts of military force in order to take a fairly insignificant city in the Donbas compared to their original war aims.Seriously? That’s all you’ve got?
Not much hope from the sound of it.
Their choices are not just artillery and nukes. They have already been covering tactical retreats with mines, and have deeper minefields in places they have held for some time. They have other options too.
They have already shown total disregard in terms of ‘rules of war’ (such as they are).
Things are going to be pretty shit for normal Ukrainians for some time to come, but that doesn't mean that their situation is hopeless, or that Russia can significantly escalate the situation even if they wanted to.
You need to tell me why their isn't any hope or what specifically they're about to do to majorly escalate things if you want your doom mongering to be taken seriously.
8ball
#notallwomenz
The Ukrainians have certainly punched above their weight, that is not in doubt.
And the Russians’ original war aims are in tatters - that’s not in doubt either.
In terms of re-taking territory, though, I think you may be underestimating the weight differential, assuming you are basing your assertion on anything but avoiding despair, or an uncritical view of Western propaganda.
I really hope we can look back in not too long and say you were right and I was wrong.
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