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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-25

You surely cannot be so simplistic.


Are you implying that the Russian government had no agency in commencing the current invasion? They could have just said "hah, we were just doing exercises, tricked you NATO cucks!" and then Russia would not now be experiencing its current near-pariah status.
 
Does he? I'm not sure either of those things are true.

Sadly, I think they are not. He seems to be acting as if he knows they don't matter (in the medium and long term) and given the size of his international support I think he is probably right. I am not even sure the damage to the Russian economy is that severe either, though it might be in his interest to make it look as if it is for a while.

At this point even something daft like the table (that many people think means he is paranoid or isolated) could easily be seen as yet another trap that the media have walked into, rather than recognizing he is leading a fully committed government who are all working together to a plan they all agree on and think will benefit them / their country / their group of states.

Can't remember a time in my life when I have had as little positive feeling about the future as this.
 
Sadly, I think they are not. He seems to be acting as if he knows they don't matter (in the medium and long term) and given the size of his international support I think he is probably right. I am not even sure the damage to the Russian economy is that severe either, though it might be in his interest to make it look as if it is for a while.

At this point even something daft like the table (that many people think means he is paranoid or isolated) could easily be seen as yet another trap that the media have walked into, rather than recognizing he is leading a fully committed government who are all working together to a plan they all agree on and think will benefit them / their country / their group of states.

Can't remember a time in my life when I have had as little positive feeling about the future as this.

Nah, this "Putin the Mastermind" nonsense was shattered the moment Russian troops crossed the border into Ukraine.
 
Nah, this "Putin the Mastermind" nonsense was shattered the moment Russian troops crossed the border into Ukraine.

Doesn't matter if he's a mastermind, just if he/they are committed to the war. US has just pulled out of an abject, 20 year long failure in Afghanistan - Iraq was and is a shambles too and plenty of people could see the stupidity of both campaigns. But the US still committed to it and bloody mindedly pumped billions of dollars and expended 100ks of lives just to prove that they'd made the right choice. Putin just needs to match the basic level of arrogance, stupidity and indifference to the loss of life that other world powers have displayed for centuries and there's no reason to believe he won't try to occupy Ukraine or establish puppet governments.
 
Are you implying that the Russian government had no agency in commencing the current invasion? They could have just said "hah, we were just doing exercises, tricked you NATO cucks!" and then Russia would not now be experiencing its current near-pariah status.
In fact its the opposite - maybe this is why this misunderstanding keep coming up - its exactly about recognising and understanding Putins agency, and why he might act
 
Are you implying that the Russian government had no agency in commencing the current invasion? They could have just said "hah, we were just doing exercises, tricked you NATO cucks!" and then Russia would not now be experiencing its current near-pariah status.
It's not either/or though, is it? If some bloke goes postal at his former workplace after long bullying and unfair dismissal, that's on him, but what put him in a place where he was willing to do it is not irrelevant or never to be mentioned, and surely that's still less the case in geopolitics.
 
Doesn't matter if he's a mastermind, just if he/they are committed to the war. US has just pulled out of an abject, 20 year long failure in Afghanistan - Iraq was and is a shambles too and plenty of people could see the stupidity of both campaigns. But the US still committed to it and bloody mindedly pumped billions of dollars and expended 100ks of lives just to prove that they'd made the right choice. Putin just needs to match the basic level of arrogance, stupidity and indifference to the loss of life that other world powers have displayed for centuries and there's no reason to believe he won't try to occupy Ukraine or establish puppet governments.

I'm sure the Russian government will try something. Thoough I'm not sure the comparison you're making is a good fit. Ukraine has a number of advantages that Iraq and Afghanistan didn't, and the Russians don't have anywhere near the same amount of resources to throw on the fire.
 
I'm sure the Russian government will try something. Thoough I'm not sure the comparison you're making is a good fit. Ukraine has a number of advantages that Iraq and Afghanistan didn't, and the Russians don't have anywhere near the same amount of resources to throw on the fire.

We shall see. You're right, Ukraine has advantages others didn't, disadvantages too in some respects. Either way it's still pretty mad to say that Putin can't occupy or form puppet regimes, no matter how costly it proves to be.
 
Are you implying that the Russian government had no agency in commencing the current invasion? They could have just said "hah, we were just doing exercises, tricked you NATO cucks!" and then Russia would not now be experiencing its current near-pariah status.

A lot of commentators seemed to go very smoothly from "The West needs to stop making these hysterical claims about Russia planning to invade Ukraine" to "Here's why the Russian invasion of Ukraine was a totally inevitable thing that we knew was going to happen."
 
Nah, this "Putin the Mastermind" nonsense was shattered the moment Russian troops crossed the border into Ukraine.

Did it, though? We have no idea what he is doing, and won't for some time - it could be that he is lashing out, trying to preserve himself or Russia's place in the world or whatever and that sanity will eventually return and there will be peace. I hope that is the case, fervently.

However it could also be that this is planned, thought out and just one part of a longer term strategy; I am starting to think that is much more likely.
 
A lot of commentators seemed to go very smoothly from "The West needs to stop making these hysterical claims about Russia planning to invade Ukraine" to "Here's why the Russian invasion of Ukraine was a totally inevitable thing that we knew was going to happen."

those two statements not as opposite as it first looks:
the very real threat of Russian attack in the second rightly should be common knowledge, the attempt to reduce hysteria in the first is likewise motivated by an attempt to placate that very same threat.
 
It looks like Russia may have some plan to split up Ukraine. So they may not bother with Lviv and the west of the country, they'll probably leave it as some rump Ukraine after conquering Kiev, west of the Dnieper and the Black Sea area.

But the west of the country - and the Ukrainian government - will bother with them.
 
Not sure how that helps, the rump will still border NATO, will be vehemently anti-Russian and will probably be armed to the absolute teeth. If he’s going to take it over I think he’s got to take it all over, and accept the costs.
But it would create a buffer zone (an occupied / client state eastern half of Ukraine) between Russia proper and ‘the West’. The western rump, even if not allowed into NATO, would still (as you say, agricola) be heavily-armed and hostile.

Don’t know if this still applies today, but I understood that much of USSR Cold War policy in Europe was to create a buffer zone (ie the Eastern Bloc / Warsaw Pact countries), because of the Soviet Union’s horrendous experience in WW2 and the Nazi invasion. Millions murdered, scorched earth policy, villages destroyed, heavy plant and other materiel seized, the western / European part of the USSR was devastated.

So if NATO / the USA had attacked the USSR conventionally, they would first have to get through East Germany, Poland, Hungary etc.
Doesn’t Belarus as a Russian client state currently function as such a buffer?

Of course it would be far better for Putin to have control of all Ukraine, but he might settle for the eastern half 🙁

Was listening to a R4 pundit yesterday, suggesting that one way for this war to end without complete occupation of Ukraine would be for Zelenskii to offer Putin something in return for a cessation of hostilities. But what might that be - the Donbas region, or a good deal more?

It’s deeply unpleasant to think of - an aggressor rewarded for their aggression - but it’s what happened in Bosnia in the 1990s, with large areas of Bosnia being handed over to the Republika Srpska ‘entity’ in exchange for peace 😟
 
you should read it

I am familiar with this Rnaud Bertrand and he is a genocide apologist twat. Basically a propagandist for the Chinese government. Not even sure if he is really a person, but he might be.

Second, all that thread is, is a selection of people saying NATO expansion eastwards is dangerous. Well, yes - however, it is Ukraine who was determined to join NATO, NATO was not really keen on them joining.
 
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those two statements not as opposite as it first looks:
the very real threat of Russian attack in the second rightly should be common knowledge, the attempt to reduce hysteria in the first is likewise motivated by an attempt to placate that very same threat.
So when people were saying rumours of an invasion were hysteria, they mostly knew there was going to be an invasion but didn't want those around them to get too worked up about it?
 
But it would create a buffer zone (an occupied / client state eastern half of Ukraine) between Russia proper and ‘the West’. The western rump, even if not allowed into NATO, would still (as you say, agricola) be heavily-armed and hostile.

Don’t know if this still applies today, but I understood that much of USSR Cold War policy in Europe was to create a buffer zone (ie the Eastern Bloc / Warsaw Pact countries), because of the Soviet Union’s horrendous experience in WW2 and the Nazi invasion. Millions murdered, scorched earth policy, villages destroyed, heavy plant and other materiel seized, the western / European part of the USSR was devastated.

So if NATO / the USA had attacked the USSR conventionally, they would first have to get through East Germany, Poland, Hungary etc.
Doesn’t Belarus as a Russian client state currently function as such a buffer?

Of course it would be far better for Putin to have control of all Ukraine, but he might settle for the eastern half 🙁

Was listening to a R4 pundit yesterday, suggesting that one way for this war to end without complete occupation of Ukraine would be for Zelenskii to offer Putin something in return for a cessation of hostilities. But what might that be - the Donbas region, or a good deal more?

It’s deeply unpleasant to think of - an aggressor rewarded for their aggression - but it’s what happened in Bosnia in the 1990s, with large areas of Bosnia being handed over to the Republika Srpska ‘entity’ in exchange for peace 😟
I don't think Putin can allow an independent "rump Ukraine" without security guarantees from the West, which he is unlikely to get.

What would be more likely is a partition, with a western sector under Russian control, but with a different puppet leader and officially "independent".
 
So when people were saying rumours of an invasion were hysteria, they mostly knew there was going to be an invasion but didn't want those around them to get too worked up about it?
no, that would be stupid of course. hard to talk about without concrete examples of what someone said in front of us
 
If you're going to cry to sir you need to put an @ in front of his board-name. That will send a corridor monitor to his office and then he will come down and see what all the fuss is about. Waking him up because someone called you a cunt tends piss him off a bit though because it's a long walk from his lair to the naughty kids class politics forum.
 
If you're going to cry to sir you need to put an @ in front of his board-name. That will send a corridor monitor to his office and then he will come down and see what all the fuss is about. Waking him up because someone called you a cunt tends piss him off a bit though because it's a long walk from his lair to the naughty kids class politics forum.
I wasn't being serious.😆 I think he should give the worst offenders 100 lines though.
 
If you're going to cry to sir you need to put an @ in front of his board-name. That will send a corridor monitor to his office and then he will come down and see what all the fuss is about. Waking him up because someone called you a cunt tends piss him off a bit though because it's a long walk from his lair to the naughty kids class politics forum.
The board will flicker a bit just before his arrival.
 
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