Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-25

[andysays]

What I find interesting is that blaming it all on NATO casts Putin/Russia in a completely passive role with no agency. When in fact he is as active and willing participant in shipping the current world political situation as any NATO leader.

I'm not sure what the word is for this is heads a little in the direction of racism bit not quite. But it says that only the West matters it is only the west that has agency.

I think it's undeniable that lots of ordinary Russian people do have a fear of being invaded by "the West".

Some of that is probably justified or at least explained by historical events, although I'm sure it's also been used and hyped up by Putin and his like.

 

[agricola]

is it time to try to adjust brain to the idea that for the foreseeable future we are all going to be living in a more or less 'hot' war situation as this drags on for years? Or is it more likely that events will continue to unfold quickly & unpredictably, resulting in some different outcome idk.

Friday will be an interesting day, I think. He might announce martial law but I think it’s more likely he will cut off energy supplies to most of the West (the EU but not the US and the UK) as the harsh retaliation that they mentioned.

One of the two big cities might fall on the same day and, lo and behold, all the people we will expect and who the Russians have loaned money to / went to dinner with will start talking about accepting reality / our leaders are weak, we need strong leaders / this is a failure of the West / why are we helping these “refugees” when the conflict is almost over etc etc.

Hopefully it won’t work, but I fear it might be a close run thing.

 

[LDC]

My Bulgarian colleague seemed to think that the Americans were bombing Kyiv.

I had a heated discussion with a taxi driver at the weekend who was skeptical about the invasion; he said you can't believe the news, not sure what's really happening, it's all fake, Palestine doesn't get this coverage, etc etc. Quite depressing, a case study in modern disinformation and media consumption. Fake news and the confusion of it all has had a massive impact in the last decade.

 

[JimW]

in fairness to RD2003 it's neither here nor there that neighbours have perhaps a better reason to fear Russia when it comes to the internal narrative that justifies to themselves what they're doing now; China's the same with the centuries of shame under the unequal treaties and Japanese invasion as drivers of the modern desire to be rich and strong with no tricksy introspection about how Tibetans or Uyghurs or a host of other near neighbours might feel.

 

[kabbes]

I feel like there is almost a gleeful tone to the response of Western countries as, after 80 years of messy, grey, murky morality, they finally have a clear Bad Guy that can be hated, doing unambiguously Bad Things. WWII was the last Just War and so much of the national psyche of all western nations is still shaped by it. Those who were on the Right Side want to relive their glory. Those on the Wrong Side want to fix history by doing it right this time. The consequence is a real enthusiasm for identifying Putin as the new Hitler and giving a performance for just how against him we all are.

Just an observation, nothing intended in terms of the rights and wrongs of it.

 

[William of Walworth]

...and let's all pause a moment to reflect on the hostile crowds heckling the fucking RNLI for saving drowning refugees.

This shit isn't some unique "Slavic barbarity".

(Apologies, this post from chilango was ten pages ago, but this thread moves fast!)

Just wanted to say that while all that Farage/RNLI shit was utterly disgusting , it was also well publicised at the time that the RNLI received a very large number of additional donations in reaction

I get some impressions from this thread that racism in Russia and Ukraine is a fair bit more 'mainstream' than here.

(Sorry for what must now be a derail).

 

[frogwoman]

Absolutely, I don't really see many people here doing that though.

 

[LDC]

I feel like there is almost a gleeful tone to the response of Western countries as, after 80 years of messy, grey, murky morality, they finally have a clear Bad Guy that can be hated, doing unambiguously Bad Things. WWII was the last Just War and so much of the national psyche of all western nations is still shaped by it. Those who were on the Right Side want to relive their glory. Those on the Wrong Side want to fix history by doing it right this time. The consequence is a real enthusiasm for identifying Putin as the new Hitler and giving a performance for just how against him we all are.

Just an observation, nothing intended in terms of the rights and wrongs of it.

Hard to unpick the deluge of news, opinion, and general feeling among people though to get clearly that?

Most people I have talked to, especially at work where it does seem to dominate lots of discussion, is one of fear and what the fuck is coming next?

 

[bimble]

I feel like there is almost a gleeful tone to the response of Western countries as, after 80 years of messy, grey, murky morality, they finally have a clear Bad Guy that can be hated, doing unambiguously Bad Things. WWII was the last Just War and so much of the national psyche of all western nations is still shaped by it. Those who were on the Right Side want to relive their glory. Those on the Wrong Side want to fix history by doing it right this time. The consequence is a real enthusiasm for identifying Putin as the new Hitler and giving a performance for just how against him we all are.

Just an observation, nothing intended in terms of the rights and wrongs of it.

That's definitely happening. And a resurgence of machismo and grandstanding about the united front for Freedom and Democracy etc etc. All of which is gross.

 

[JimW]

Though Putin is of course unambiguously doing a terrible thing, which does give that narrative a bit of cover.

 

[Rimbaud]

I feel like there is almost a gleeful tone to the response of Western countries as, after 80 years of messy, grey, murky morality, they finally have a clear Bad Guy that can be hated, doing unambiguously Bad Things. WWII was the last Just War and so much of the national psyche of all western nations is still shaped by it. Those who were on the Right Side want to relive their glory. Those on the Wrong Side want to fix history by doing it right this time. The consequence is a real enthusiasm for identifying Putin as the new Hitler and giving a performance for just how against him we all are.

Just an observation, nothing intended in terms of the rights and wrongs of it.

I think you're correct. I posted elsewhere that Putin apparently didn't understand how launching a war of annexation in Europe has such deep symbolism and resonance which really strikes at the core of what it means to be European in the 21st Century, and therefore underestimated the reaction it would provoke, e.g. he may have been thinking in terms of realist geopolitical paradigm, and neglected to consider the impact of emotions, ideology and popular perception/understanding of history.

I think that you are describing is quite similar.

 

[JimW]

I think you're correct. I posted elsewhere that Putin apparently didn't understand how launching a war of annexation in Europe has such deep symbolism and resonance which really strikes at the core of what it means to be European in the 21st Century, and therefore underestimated the reaction it would provoke, e.g. he may have been thinking in terms of realist geopolitical paradigm, and neglected to consider the impact of emotions, ideology and popular perception/understanding of history.

I think that you are describing is quite similar.

Yes, and perhaps thinking because he's convinced Ukraine is really Russia, we might secretly all agree with him too.

 

[rubbershoes]

I feel like there is almost a gleeful tone to the response of Western countries as, after 80 years of messy, grey, murky morality, they finally have a clear Bad Guy that can be hated, doing unambiguously Bad Things. WWII was the last Just War and so much of the national psyche of all western nations is still shaped by it. Those who were on the Right Side want to relive their glory. Those on the Wrong Side want to fix history by doing it right this time. The consequence is a real enthusiasm for identifying Putin as the new Hitler and giving a performance for just how against him we all are.

Just an observation, nothing intended in terms of the rights and wrongs of it.

In a sense that's tied in to people misinterpreting Putin over the last 15 years. Litvinenko, Georgia, Crimea, Salisbury and a number of other assassinations in Russia and abroad. Putin has been a stripper gradually revealing his nature over this time whilst trying to hold a feather boa of respectability over himself. And whilst people havent believed his, and Russia's, words they've been willing to carry on dealing with him and watching the show.

Now with him and and Lukashenko, there's no more false modesty and it's two leaders, one cup, on every TV screen around the world

 

[kabbes]

Hard to unpick the deluge of news, opinion, and general feeling among people though to get clearly that?

Most people I have talked to, especially at work where it does seem to dominate lots of discussion, is one of fear and what the fuck is coming next?

Sure. I wasn’t clear in my post, but I also had in mind that this response of almost gleeful grandstanding is more visible the higher up the hierarchy of a state that you go. It was less the ordinary folk I was thinking of than the institutions.

 

[kabbes]

Though Putin is of course unambiguously doing a terrible thing, which does give that narrative a bit of cover.

Oh for sure. I want being arch when I described it as a Bad Guy doing Bad Things. It’s this very lack of ambivalence that unleashes the cork of unilateral relief — here is something we can all finally agree on

 

[emanymton]

I think it's undeniable that lots of ordinary Russian people do have a fear of being invaded by "the West".

Some of that is probably justified or at least explained by historical events, although I'm sure it's also been used and hyped up by Putin and his like.

Sure and I would not want to suggest that the West has no role in creating this. This is a result of a conflict between imperial powers in which both play an active role.

 

[bimble]

Oh for sure. I want being arch when I described it as a Bad Guy doing Bad Things. It’s this very lack of ambivalence that unleashes the cork of unilateral relief — here is something we can all finally agree on

yeah, i wonder if that bit is more obvious here as well, after the last 6 years of pissing about with a sort of pseudo-enemy.

 

[cupid_stunt]

As the information war hots up, with Russia taking out TV masts, restricting the internet, and closing down independent media outlets in Russia, Russians are still turning to the BBC for information, their Russian language news website has seen traffic more than triple in the last week, reaching a record 10.7 million people, and their English language site has seen traffic from Russia increase by over 250%.

The BBC World Service has turned to old-school short-wave, with two old SW frequencies being fired up to cover Ukraine & large parts of Russia, whilst not everyone will have a SW receiver, there're still plenty of such receivers in both countries, so a good back-up should their websites be taken down, which can only be a good thing.

LINK

 

[Aladdin]

Yes, and perhaps thinking because he's convinced Ukraine is really Russia, we might secretly all agree with him too.

Historically it was more Russia was part of Ukraine...as in..its the motherland of the Rus.

 

[JimW]

Historically it was more Russia was part of Ukraine...as in..its the motherland of the Rus.

Well, capitals shift in big empires down the years, I'm sure they think they are the true inheritors of the legacy.

 

[Aladdin]

Well, capitals shift in big empires down the years, I'm sure they think they are the true inheritors of the legacy.

Yes . Absolutely.

 

[kebabking]

getting rid of him how? If that would be part of the motivation for US-Europe not normalising relations it's because they think prolonging the war will lead to him being toppled internally?

Economics.

If the Russian economy shrinks by 25-50%, the cash machines stop working, inflation hits wheelbarrow levels, and the Oligarchs lose great wedges of cash and end up having to live in, gulp, Russia, I wonder how long a 70yo bloke has left to run.

It's not this week, nor next month. But 5 years?

 

[Diamond]

This is a fascinating contribution from a guy who used to do the US Army's truck maintenance:



In essence, he argues that a combination of the Ukrainian mud season, and extremely poor quality maintenance means that they are now largely confined to the roads.

 

[ska invita]

Like what are you both bothered about Russia and China getting their hands on weapons wise from what's being given to Ukraine? Unless I've misunderstood you?

its not my main concern - it is part of the counterproductive dynamic though.

 

[dilute micro]

This is a fascinating contribution from a guy who used to do the US Army's truck maintenance:



In essence, he argues that a combination of the Ukrainian mud season, and extremely poor quality maintenance means that they are now largely confined to the roads.

How long is the mud season? This post says that more than one column is stuck in the mud near Kyiv.

 

[IC3D]

its not my main concern - it is part of the counterproductive dynamic though.

They'll have have Knock off ones on Wish soon that take 2 months to arrive and don't work

 

[seventh bullet]

Well, capitals shift in big empires down the years, I'm sure they think they are the true inheritors of the legacy.

Hate to be painting with broad brush strokes and going to be inevitably crude with one paragraph, but modern Russia's centuries-long historical legacy of imperialism and with it a particularly despotic political culture is distinctively Muscovite.

That said, shouldn't be mapping the above so easily onto what is happening in the now, considering other strategic geopolitical factors, but the above should be included in the nationalist myth-making and identity of those who share the reasserted ambitions of the elite who hold the reins of the state and want to claim what belongs to them.

 

[TopCat]

yes, thats me that is.

I wasn’t singling you out.

 

[Pickman's model]

AFAIK everything that's going is not new or important tech. Likely all they''ll end up with is a fuck load of used NLAW tubes and some small arms, the place is awash with weapons already anyway.

and they nearly got their hands on a eurofighter or two

 

[RD2003]

It's interesting that RD2003 endlessly uses Russia's history of invasion to justify Russia's concern about NATO being on it's borders, but never considers the easterns states experience of Russian invasion/domination as being an understandable reason for them wanting to join NATO....

It isn't all that relevant to how Russia views itself. Endless tracts have been written about this subject by more intelligent people than me and you. And ultimately, it's because of how Russia feels about itself (or how the people in Russia that politically matter do), that the present tragedy is happening.