Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-25

[The39thStep]

As predicted upstream ( by the BBC) the Swiss hosted Ukraine Conference only focussed on the least contentious points in Zelensky’s peace formula: the issues of nuclear security, getting food to global markets and getting abducted Ukrainian children and prisoners back home. However, Armenia, Bahrain, Brazil, India, Indonesia, Colombia, Libya, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Suriname, Thailand and the United Arab Emirates didn't sign the final statement

"The participating heads of state and government were unable to agree on a clear approach to involving Russia in a peace process at the Ukraine summit on the Bürgenstock. There was no consensus on the question of when exactly and how Russia should be involved in future, said Defence Minister Viola Amherd, who holds the rotating Swiss presidency this year, in a closing speech."

 

[Ax^]

I think they've ratched up the demands a notch tbh.

become a Russia vessel state and you cannot have any weapons to defend yourself

jesus even the deal you mentioned had some complicated observer role for about 8 other countries that would kick in if Russia invaded the rest of Ukraine .. but could be blocked by Russia at a whim

terms of surrender not a peace deal

 

[Gramsci]

Looks like a good read. Does anybody in it argue that the end of the occupation was worse than the alternative?

My reading of the book ( was some time ago.) was that for some in Eastern Europe the occupation , in their eyes , by USSR was slightly worse. Some of the fighting which went on after WW2 officially ended was resistance to Soviet Union occupation once German army was pushed back. This in some cases went on for years. And not all those who took part in it had clean hands.

Secondly people fought their own wars. The Ukrainians nationalists collaborated with Germans and then fell out with them. Fighting their own war with Poles whilst the Red Army was fighting the German army.

The war remade eastern Europe. Enormous numbers were trying to get home or were moved, not always voluntarily.

What I got from the book is the moral ambiguity of those caught up in this World War. There was a moveable grey area of collaboration/ self interest and opposition. Not all for whiter than white motives. And people taking up differing positions during the war.

The petty self interest is exemplified by the less than hearty welcome of Jews who survived Holocaust returning home. One case I remember from book was a Jewish woman who took her neighbours to court to get her belongings back. She returned to her village to find all her household belongings distributed amongst her neighbours. They were most put out she had survived. And not keen to hand her belongings back.

The39thStep is right this is highly readable take on a bit of history I was not aware of.

Punctures the myth of a heroic WW2 fighting the evil Nazis.

 

[The39thStep]

become a Russia vessel state and you cannot have any weapons to defend yourself

jesus even the deal you mentioned had some complicated observer role for about 8 other countries that would kick in if Russia invaded the rest of Ukraine .. but could be blocked by Russia at a whim

terms of surrender not a peace deal

And that was when Ukraine had stopped the Russian advance on Kiev and Russia was taking losses.

Anyway we will just have to wait to see how any negotiated outcome ( if one is ever reached) is framed by the PR battalions .

 

[Ax^]

PR Battalions now

you link to the article and i quoted a follow up from the same provider the New York times picking apart the supposed peace deal

the peace deal has always been the same give up the same 4 regions Russian want from the start of the war and systemically dismantle the country so it can be absorbed into Putin's Russia


shame you cannot see it an unjust deal to expect anyone to sign up to but hey that's your issue

 

[TopCat]

Don't you just love the market. Even when you're bombing shit out of each other you can agree to uphold contracts and pipe the enemy's gas through your country.

It’s interested me since the start. A lot of diversion of gas was alledged in the past though leading to nord stream two etc.

But still, despite the enmity it shows the Ukrainians and the Russians can hold to a deal if they want to.

 

[The39thStep]

PR Battalions now

you link to the article and i quoted a follow up from the same provider the New York times picking apart the supposed peace deal

the peace deal has always been the same give up the same 4 regions Russian want from the start of the war and systemically dismantle the country so it can be absorbed into Putin's Russia


shame you cannot see it an unjust deal to expect anyone to sign up to but hey that's your issue

My issue is that I haven’t actually expressed any judgement on the peace negotiations.
My reference to the PR battalions is to PR strategies of both the two states at war and the states and organisations who are supporting , them not you.

No doubt if there is ever an end to this terrible invasion then they will all be claiming some form of victory of sorts .

 

[kebabking]

My issue is that I haven’t actually expressed any judgement on the peace negotiations.
My reference to the PR battalions is to PR strategies of both the two states at war and the states and organisations who are supporting , them not you.

No doubt if there is ever an end to this terrible invasion then they will all be claiming some form of victory of sorts .

While I think there's always a degree of dodgyness in telling others what their experience is is, I think it's pretty easy to decide for yourself what absolute victory and absolute defeat, 'yeah, that's still a win', and the endless shades of grey from there on would look like.

I think there's also a nuanced argument to be made that X or Y result can be both victory and defeat, and that some results could be defeats, or victories, for both sides.

So personally I would say that a rump Ukraine, with 60% of its 2013 territory, that was not politically and militarily dominated by Russia, that joined the EU(?) and had other European military forces based on it's territory (even in a 'tripwire' role, rather than adirect combat role), was a victory, given both the Russian objectives and the military overmatch that the Russians had.

On the other hand, a Ukraine that held 75% of its 2013 territory, but which was dominated by Russia both politically and militarily, and was not able to choose it's own allies, or have non-Russian/Belarus forces on its territory, was a defeat.

As for Russia?

To an extent, whatever happens in Ukraine, even a 100% victory, it's place is now fully in China's shadow in a way it absolutely wasn't 3 years ago.

Lots of options between absolute victory and absolute defeat...

 

[The39thStep]

While I think there's always a degree of dodgyness in telling others what their experience is is, I think it's pretty easy to decide for yourself what absolute victory and absolute defeat, 'yeah, that's still a win', and the endless shades of grey from there on would look like.

I think there's also a nuanced argument to be made that X or Y result can be both victory and defeat, and that some results could be defeats, or victories, for both sides.

So personally I would say that a rump Ukraine, with 60% of its 2013 territory, that was not politically and militarily dominated by Russia, that joined the EU(?) and had other European military forces based on it's territory (even in a 'tripwire' role, rather than adirect combat role), was a victory, given both the Russian objectives and the military overmatch that the Russians had.

On the other hand, a Ukraine that held 75% of its 2013 territory, but which was dominated by Russia both politically and militarily, and was not able to choose it's own allies, or have non-Russian/Belarus forces on its territory, was a defeat.

As for Russia?

To an extent, whatever happens in Ukraine, even a 100% victory, it's place is now fully in China's shadow in a way it absolutely wasn't 3 years ago.

Lots of options between absolute victory and absolute defeat...

Sure , don’t disagree at all about the degrees between black and white . I suggested up thread that the end of WW2 ,which was black and white , probably wasn’t a suitable analogy for the end of this war .

 

[discokermit]

rod stewart, dressed in blue and yellow, salutes a picture of zelensky in a concert in germany and gets boos from the audience,

 

[Fez909]

rod stewart, dressed in blue and yellow, salutes a picture of zelensky in a concert in germany and gets boos from the audience,

Why are they booing?

 

[Silas Loom]

Why are they booing?

Ostalgia.

 

[Elpenor]

The Boo Rodney’s

 

[Spymaster]

Why are they booing?

Probably because it's toe-curlingly cringeworthy and wanky.

 

[Combustible]

Probably because it's toe-curlingly cringeworthy and wanky.

Yet they still bought tickets to see him.

 

[discokermit]

Why are they booing?

maybe zelensky isnt as popular in the real world as he is on this thread and in our media?

alternatively, what Spymaster said. or a bit of both.

 

[TopCat]

That peace conference seemed a total waste of time.

 

[Dystopiary]

An investigation by Mediazona and the BBC has shown how far the recruited prisoners were treated as expendable by Wagner.

Prigozhin insisted they would be treated as equals but they apparently constituted nearly 90% of the group's overall losses in the battle for Bakhmut.

BBC and Mediazona have obtained and verified personal data of 19,547 Wagner mercenaries who died at Bakhmut. It allowed us to trace the entire history of the battle and the transformation of recruited prisoners from valuable personnel into “disposable material”

By studying the ID tag numbers of the dead prisoners, we found that the Wagner group had recruited at least 48,366 people from Russian prisons. Of these 17 175 were killed ie: 35% of the all prisoners who went to the front. But there is a disparity...

The prisoners recruited in the summer and autumn of 2022 had 75% chances of survival. Those who went to war later, in December and January had only a 50% survival rate. Our graph shows that the number of dead prisoners begins to rise sharply from September 12, 2022

From mid-November, until May of the following year, the Wagner group was losing an average of 400 fighters every week. Of these, 90% were former prisoners.

Thread by @oivshina on Thread Reader App

‘Immoral but effective.’ How the ‘Wagner’ private military company lost 17,000 prisoners in the assault on Bakhmut

 

[The39thStep]

That peace conference seemed a total waste of time.

Why do you think it was?

 

[TopCat]

Why do you think it was?

Insincere, hypocritical, delusional from the start.

Refusal to involve Russia showed the lack of sincerity.

Righteous words about territorial integrity rang hollow given the actions of some participant countries in invading and subjugating others.

Delusional as Ukraine is on the back foot and has no plan to advance nor could it do so if it chose.

Lastly, it was an embarrassment for Zelensky. Major participants refusing to sign up to a heavily watered down statement made him look a fool.

I suspect many knew it would go badly hence sending their underlings.

 

[ska invita]

essential reading imo
especially anyone feeling "optimism"

Ukraine war: Conscription squads send Ukrainian men into hiding

Public transport, cafes and supermarkets are now off limits to men trying to avoid being enlisted.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[Yossarian]

Interesting look at Ukraine's Vietnamese minority

‘This country gave me a lot’: the Vietnamese people staying in Ukraine

People across Ukraine have united in the face of the Russian threat and its Vietnamese community is no exception

www.theguardian.com

“We got used to life here, we were sad when we were away. We love Ukraine and we didn’t want to be anywhere else,” said Nhan. They reopened the restaurant in June 2022, when Kharkiv was still a ghost town. The first customers were mainly police and soldiers. But life soon came back to the city, and the restaurant was busy with family dinners and date nights on one recent Monday evening. Even with the recent uptick in missile attacks on Kharkiv, Tran said the family has no plans to leave again.

 

[sleaterkinney]

essential reading imo
especially anyone feeling "optimism"

Ukraine war: Conscription squads send Ukrainian men into hiding

Public transport, cafes and supermarkets are now off limits to men trying to avoid being enlisted.

www.bbc.co.uk

And what is the situation on the Russian side?. Are you optimistic for them?

 

[8ball]

maybe zelensky isnt as popular in the real world as he is on this thread and in our media?

alternatively, what Spymaster said. or a bit of both.

A bit of both, indeed. A fair section of the German public is quite resentful of the amount of money being spent on supporting Ukraine.

 

[tim]

Insincere, hypocritical, delusional from the start.

Refusal to involve Russia showed the lack of sincerity.

Righteous words about territorial integrity rang hollow given the actions of some participant countries in invading and subjugating others.

Delusional as Ukraine is on the back foot and has no plan to advance nor could it do so if it chose.

Lastly, it was an embarrassment for Zelensky. Major participants refusing to sign up to a heavily watered down statement made him look a fool.

I suspect many knew it would go badly hence sending their underlings.

Still a better turnout than Putin would get. He's been reduced to running of to Pyongyang just for a photo opportunity with Kim Jong-un.

 

[TopCat]

essential reading imo
especially anyone feeling "optimism"

Ukraine war: Conscription squads send Ukrainian men into hiding

Public transport, cafes and supermarkets are now off limits to men trying to avoid being enlisted.

www.bbc.co.uk

. “There are more than a million police officers in Ukraine, why should I fight when they are not?" he said.

these men, there is somewhat of a disconnect. They are holding out for a Ukrainian victory, just one that does not involve them.

 

[Yossarian]

whether israel or ukraine, the favourite word of the propagandist.

Not sure what you're implying with this, sexual violence in the conflict is widespread and well-documented

According to the UN Commission of Inquiry on Ukraine, Russian servicemen perpetrate sexual violence “at gunpoint, with extreme brutality”, with torture and summary killings. Victims include girls and boys, women and men, aged from age four to 80. Civilian women and girls are largely targeted in occupation. In detention, victims are civilians and PoWs, mostly men. The perpetrators do not spare pregnant women, some of whom have suffered miscarriages or fear that their newborns will be deported to Russia. Assaults against LGBTQ+ people are amplified by Russia’s acute homophobia. Russian servicemen often accompany their sex crimes with dehumanising rhetoric and assertions that Ukrainians should stop procreating.

Russia’s weaponising of sexual violence, and Ukraine’s response, reveals a grim war of values | Kateryna Busol

Ukraine’s fight for justice for survivors of terrible sexual crimes shows the battle goes far beyond territory, says Dr Kateryna Busol, a Ukrainian lawyer

www.theguardian.com

 

[Yossarian]

I mean, when people likened the invasion and occupation of Ukraine to the invasion and occupation of Gaza, it was all "Ukraine is not Gaza you dumbfucks," but when you get called out for chortling about war crimes, there's suddenly a link to Israel?

 

[Sweet FA]

Your neighbour breaks into your house. He stabs you, rapes your wife, steals your TV, and sets fire to your kitchen.

He says that he'll go away and promise not come back if you a) throw all your kitchen knives in the bin. b) take the locks off your front and back doors. c) cut the phone line so you can't call the Police.

You agree, because that can't go wrong at all, and you're the dumbest fuck ever to walk the earth.

HTH.

Lol, rape. After Bucha.

I mean, when people likened the invasion and occupation of Ukraine to the invasion and occupation of Gaza, it was all "Ukraine is not Gaza you dumbfucks," but when you get called out for chortling about war crimes, there's suddenly a link to Israel?

kk 'chortles' about war crimes, dk repeats it then the usual suspects line up to have a pop at dk. Standard.

 

[Yossarian]

kk 'chortles' about war crimes, dk repeats it then the usual suspects line up to have a pop at dk. Standard.

You forgot the bit about rape being "the favourite word of the propagandist"