Ukip - why are they gaining support?

[butchersapron]

Low turnout for tories with stay at homes and lots of switchers, highly motivated labour tactical voters and lib dems, 5000 from each and a stay away (highly likely due to anger at another bent politician) and they should have their first mp.

 

[brogdale]

Low turnout for tories with stay at homes and lots of switchers, highly motivated labour tactical voters and lib dems, 5000 from each and a stay away (highly likely due to anger at another bent politician) and they should have their first mp.

If it is called, there'd be huge pressure on Farage not to bottle it again, and stand himself.

 

[butchersapron]

Yep, i think he'd have to grasp the nettle this time.

 

[brogdale]

Yep, i think he'd have to grasp the nettle this time.

I was talking to my old Dad about Farage earlier today to see if IHO any of the recent 'mud had stuck' and I wasn't surprised that he felt no different about him at all; if anything I think the press attacks will have reinforced the 'he's a bit of a lad' image with his core. Interesting, isn't it, that the've gone with the dirt this early, for the Euros? Bit of a gamble if that's all that the tory press have on him...the haven't kept their powder dry.

 

[classicdish]

Low turnout for tories with stay at homes and lots of switchers, highly motivated labour tactical voters and lib dems, 5000 from each and a stay away (highly likely due to anger at another bent politician) and they should have their first mp.

Surely Labour supporters would aim for a win, like in 1997? Why would it be tactical to back a party that has only ever got 4% of the vote in that seat?

 

[butchersapron]

To damage the tories. More than one extra seat in the dying embers of this parliament would. And because what possible in the 97 landside isn't possible now. That's how i would thinking anyway.

 

[DotCommunist]

I was talking to my old Dad about Farage earlier today to see if IHO any of the recent 'mud had stuck' and I wasn't surprised that he felt no different about him at all; if anything I think the press attacks will have reinforced the 'he's a bit of a lad' image with his core. Interesting, isn't it, that the've gone with the dirt this early, for the Euros? Bit of a gamble if that's all that the tory press have on him...the haven't kept their powder dry.

this is jus the euros, if ukip do as well as predicted, then start threatening seats- watch the gloves come off. The recent est. smearing and highlighting of the fruits will be like a vicars tea compared to how rabid they will go if the tory party think home seats are under significant threat

 

[Dogsauce]

The fuck-ups and amateurishness of UKIP will appeal to many because they're sick of slippery and groomed on-message career politicians, so it helps make them look 'different' even if the content of what people say is highly offensive - they'll see it as railing against 'political correctness', in some cases a bit of a laugh maybe.

Also remember in the euros people aren't electing a government, they don't have to worry about the competency of candidates in office. It's seen as a fairly risk-free punch in the face for the government. What they build off the back of it is a worry.

The Lenny Henry guy has actually defended his statement, expect a dismissal soon. UKIP are also whining about people digging up dirt on their candidates as though nobody has done that on any other political party, which is bollocks (though maybe the media are giving them more attention on this - racist Tory councillor a rarely make the national news). They've said they should be attacked on policy - difficult when they only have one at the moment!

 

[Awesome Wells]

Saw a ukip poster in the village yesterday;in wondered how many people support gtheir bullshit locally. I don't know the people concerned.

 

[brogdale]

Saw a ukip poster in the village yesterday;in wondered how many people support gtheir bullshit locally. I don't know the people concerned.

Depending where you live, probably around 15 to 20% according to most polling.

 

[Awesome Wells]

I posted back my leaflet yesterday.

In some ways I wouldn't be surprised if we were indicative of 'most polling' estimates, but despite being surrounded by a sea of blue voting landowners and twats, our local councillor is actually a green, bucking local trends. When he retires I expect the Tories will take hold, or possibly the libdems again.

 

[William of Walworth]

Little as I like Nick Cohen's Observer pieces a lot of the time, this one's definitely worth a read ...


Nigel Farage is a phoney. Scrutinise him and he'll crumble
Instead of tearing into the preposterous Ukip leader, Britain's famously aggressive media have made him a celebrity

 

[treelover]

Keep it up wells, you're doing a great job for UKIP: YouGov have UKIP taking the lead for the first time in the european election polls this weekend.

YG:

UKIP 31 (+4),
Labour 28 (-2),
Conservatives 19 (-3)
LibDems 9 (-1)
Greens 8(+2)

If UKIP get as as many MEP's as predicted, doesn't that mean they will have access to even more EU funds?, ironic but of course they can then use it to 'professionalise' themselves, spread more propaganda, etc.

 

[brogdale]

YouGov find that 45% of over 60's, (highest turn-out cohort), intend to vote UKIP in the Euros...

UKIP (45%), Con (20%), Lab (19%), LD (8%), Oth (8%). (for this cohort)

....45% of those who expressed a voting intention said UKIP....The oldies are, as is well known, much more likely to turn out to vote. In this poll 58% said they were 10/10 certain to vote compared with 46% for the sample as a whole.....This is one poll and there are the usual caveats about sub-sets – though this segment represented 525 people.

...but the challenge for Farage to carry over Euro success into the Westminster poll is demonstrated by this...

...only 20% of this same subset said they would choose UKIP when asked who they’d been voting for at the general election...

This being their most favourable demographic, it presently looks likely that a mid-teen share of the popular vote is more realistic estimate of the GE UKIP share.

Also posted in Polling thread.

 

[treelover]

...only 20% of this same subset said they would choose UKIP when asked who they’d been voting for at the general election...

Its about 15% more than the whole of the left is likely to get though.

 

[rekil]

Forum fave Tim Aker is a UKIP east England MEP candidate.

 

[weepiper]

Poster not gone down very well in the East End of Glasgow

 

[butchersapron]

11% UKIP in scotland.

 

[weepiper]

11% UKIP in scotland.

Indeed. Quite possible they'll get an MEP this time. The reaction that poster has got in the particular location it's in is heartening though.

 

[DotCommunist]

has a party with no members of parliament ever managed this level of visibility and polling before? Surely even Mosely's lot didn't get this level of attention.

 

[brogdale]

has a party with no members of parliament ever managed this level of visibility and polling before? Surely even Mosely's lot didn't get this level of attention.

Good question.

I remember Goldsmith's millions giving the Referendum Party a high visibility in 1996/7, but although they took 3% of the popular vote in the 1997 GE, their polling was nowhere near the current UKIP levels. Who knows, if Goldsmith had survived and continued to spunk millions into the RP, Sked's party may well have withered on the vine.

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

One of the curios, which points to a hollowness which may in the end provide relief for their opponents, is that the party has not gone through anything like the normal trajectory of growth through community based action.

The tories didn't have to in their roots because they are a party of privilge and centuries of power, though some of them do nonetheless.

Labour are absolutely founded on it. The LDs built up their base with local campaigning too, acquiring councillors through "drains and dogshit" graft. The Greens borrowed a lot of LD strategy. Even the BNP had boots on the ground in the areas they did well, if that's not too close a metaphor for comfort. You name it, Hammas, Sinn Fein... whatever, The growth is slow or slow-ish and hard won.

But UKIP have managed it much more on a bubble of hot air and hype really, stacks of people becomming councillors and MEPs overnight.

No one knows what the fuck MEPs do of course, which helps, especially as UKIPs do next to fuck all beyond bathing in EU gravy.

But I feel sorry for people who end up with shit ones as councillors, not that any party is immune from shit councillors but still...UKIP are rising to levels that are probably beyond their basic competence to serve and legislate.

 

[Awesome Wells]

has a party with no members of parliament ever managed this level of visibility and polling before? Surely even Mosely's lot didn't get this level of attention.

They are working hard to get this level of attention because it's the EU elections and they all want to get onboard the gravy train Farage has so successfully milked. Come the general election they won't give a shit.

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

this is jus the euros, if ukip do as well as predicted, then start threatening seats- watch the gloves come off. The recent est. smearing and highlighting of the fruits will be like a vicars tea compared to how rabid they will go if the tory party think home seats are under significant threat

I strongly suspect much of the more recent puff about "ooooh...UKIP are for Labour voters too" is damage limitation from tory rags, as well as chiming with UKIP strategy. It also sounds like a marginally clever observation. Certainly though there are people who would vote UKIP who would never ever countenance voting tory, but to be lulled into any notion that it's a pro working class vote is just testament to the fraud and how out of touch Labour have become in too many areas (complacency being a prime cause)

 

[treelover]

One of the things I am beginning to notice on social media is that accusations of 'racist', 'homophobe', etc, are not having any impact on posters who are accused of it and many other posters are reccing them, , its simply is not having the effect it would have had a few years ago, it may be because especially the former has been used in a scattergun way to shout down people and has now lost its impact, I don't know, Orwell might have had an answer, but long term its worrying, there was a poll a few years ago that stated 50% of voters would support a nationalist party that eschewed violence,etc, it was only one poll though.

 

[butchersapron]

They are working hard to get this level of attention because it's the EU elections and they all want to get onboard the gravy train Farage has so successfully milked. Come the general election they won't give a shit.

What nuanced insight.

 

[brogdale]

I strongly suspect much of the more recent puff about "ooooh...UKIP are for Labour voters too" is damage limitation from tory rags, as well as chiming with UKIP strategy. It also sounds like a marginally clever observation. Certainly though there are people who would vote UKIP who would never ever countenance voting tory, but to be lulled into any notion that it's a pro working class vote is just testament to the fraud and how out of touch Labour have become in too many areas (complacency being a prime cause)

tbh I've not seen reporting that suggests UKIP is for any particular demographic, but precisely the other way around...certain cohorts appear more favourably disposed towards their simplistic nationalism. The polling evidence suggests that, as any 'protest party' would, UKIP have taken voters from all other parties, but continue to poach more from the tories than anyone else. Here's the latest evidence on the churning for the forthcoming Euros:-

 

[butchersapron]

I strongly suspect much of the more recent puff about "ooooh...UKIP are for Labour voters too" is damage limitation from tory rags, as well as chiming with UKIP strategy. It also sounds like a marginally clever observation. Certainly though there are people who would vote UKIP who would never ever countenance voting tory, but to be lulled into any notion that it's a pro working class vote is just testament to the fraud and how out of touch Labour have become in too many areas (complacency being a prime cause)

The tories saying that UKIP are taking votes off labour too is irrelevant electorally - the only places where UKIP voters can do damage is in in tory
marginals.

What's marginally clever?

The second half of your post needs separating from the first.

 

[gosub]

One of the things I am beginning to notice on social media is that accusations of 'racist', 'homophobe', etc, are not having any impact on posters who are accused of it and many other posters are reccing them, , its simply is not having the effect it would have had a few years ago, it may be because especially the former has been used in a scattergun way to shout down people and has now lost its impact, I don't know, Orwell might have had an answer, but long term its worrying, there was a poll a few years ago that stated 50% of voters would support a nationalist party that eschewed violence,etc, it was only one poll though.

The power of words. Remember arguing with a rather creepy bloke who ended standing for district council as BNP (lost deposit). He delighted in using language political correctness has tried to expunge from the lexicon, like some 8 year old thrilled at knowing a swear word capable of getting a rise out the grown ups. Newspeaking doesn't change the underlying attitudes of those who outlook you wish to deem unacceptable, it just makes them easier to mark them out, where they wallow happy as a pig in shit.

I remember doing Referendum party stuff, the smears of racist and xenophobia emanating from Mr Mandelson down. Found it quite upsetting because it wasn't true, neither of me or most of the people seeking plebiscite over the disaster that is the EUro. I look now at posters coming out of UKIP with some guilt as we laid the bedrock...To label them 'racist' is a semantic contortion, that dilutes the language and as a slur, rolls off like water from a ducks back. Some are however utterly xenophobic, and as such, to me, repellent. My truck is with the politics of EUrope not the peoples.

While I felt some hurt, and then guilt on the 'xenophobia' front. I wonder in ten years time if current UKIP supporters will feel the same about the 'racist' term. There are certainly currents - you only have to look as far as the anti Lenny Henry stuff going on... but that is for the future

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

One of the things I am beginning to notice on social media is that accusations of 'racist', 'homophobe', etc, are not having any impact on posters who are accused of it and many other posters are reccing them, , its simply is not having the effect it would have had a few years ago, it may be because especially the former has been used in a scattergun way to shout down people and has now lost its impact, I don't know, Orwell might have had an answer, but long term its worrying, there was a poll a few years ago that stated 50% of voters would support a nationalist party that eschewed violence,etc, it was only one poll though.

that's been the case for years. They like being called racist if anything. They have a ready made smokescreen for the accusation. (not the kipfrauds per se, more the general pool of xenaphobes who they now dominate)

Such phrases as "typical - playing the race card and closing down the debate" are used to close down the debate, which Orwell would of course said something about.

The reaction against "pc" has been at least as problematic as pc itself (IMO) for the better part of 30 years.

ETA : You put the point very well, I think elsewhere you or someone said they are like a teen who has found a new swearword. The racists have found expert ways to invoke race without it being provable. Then they can have a "debate" on their territory ad infinitum while their opponent seeths. It's all well rehearsed.

I wish to god Hope Not Hate could grasp this. UKIPs weak point is economics and an instinctive authoritarianism. interesting to see how many LDs have gone over from one of those charts. "protest" my rusty hoop. Protest is meant to be against the establishment not for more corporate phooey. You'd think the LD supporters might have learned their lesson from being diddled last time but no... much of this has the ring of the lemmings parade.