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Ukip - why are they gaining support?

Its about a year now since this thread started so imo a good to time ask: Are Ukip here for good?

Unlike the BNP or any other 4th parties I can think of, they seem to have a clear section of the right wing press right behind them. certain strands of the electorate seem to have broken completely from the other parties (unlike in the past when Ukip were a Plan B or protest vote). the working class and/or ex-labour section of their vote is probably less settled than the former Tory voters.

would the ex Tories slowly return in yrs 2/3 of a Miliband government though, or is this it?
 
UKIP seem to have permanently established themselves in parts of the country, most definitely I think, another interesting question is how many seats will they win in 2015?
 
where to said:
would the ex Tories slowly return in yrs 2/3 of a Miliband government though, or is this it?
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Yes as the next intake of parliamentary Tories, which grows ever more swivel eyed with every session, will move further to the right after a defeat under Cameron.
There will be no re-emergence of a centrist One Nation Conservative party that once held sway in Scotland and a force to be reckoned with in urban Britain.
That kind of politician like Ken Clarke is now an isolated dinosaur and a moderate Tory like Cameron or Nick Boles is just a neo-liberal that doesn't mind queers and darkies.
 
where to said:
Its about a year now since this thread started so imo a good to time ask: Are Ukip here for good?
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I think it's far too early to say. If I knew for sure, I'd be laying bets and making lots of money.


With regards to longevity, for most people UKIP = Farage and it remains to be seen whether he can successfully hand over the reins.

I would not be surprised to see a significant dichotomy in right-wing (and to an extent, anti-Labour) voting: people voting UKIP in the Euro elections and Tory in the General Election. I do not believe that UKIP are sufficiently mature as a party to successfully contest a General Election in more than a few key seats. People like Bloom indicate the general low quality of their candidates. Therefore a good showing by UKIP in the Euro elections next year should not be seen as a breakthrough.

However, I would be similarly unsurprised to see a Labour landslide in 2015 on a Tory / UKIP split.
 
J Ed said:
UKIP seem to have permanently established themselves in parts of the country, most definitely I think, another interesting question is how many seats will they win in 2015?
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zero or one - if farage picks the right constituency to stand in. First past the post and the fact their ruddy faced clarksonite voter base are spread out - rather than in clusters - fuck them on that front
 
co-op said:
Heh missed this reply so I can't find the original post now it was so long ago, but I'm not sure you've really taken on what I said about Labour losing votes due to people stopping voting rather than defecting (although of course there are some defections). Barking fits this pattern well - you say that Hodge's majority slumped - it did - but so did turnouts in general: in 2001 and 2005 turnouts were 45% and 50% - compared to over 70% as recently as 1992.

Also - re 'where do the BNPs votes come from?' - the Conservative Party was getting 5 figure votes in Barking through the 80s and up to 92 - these have now disappeared and I think you're more likely to find disaffected tories in the BNP vote that emerged in the 2000s than Labour (although that doesn't mean they aren't working class voters of course).
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No you are wrong on this, certainly in places like Barking, these are former conventional Labour voters not Tory who would vote for the BNP and UKIP.

In Barking the incumbent MP Margaret Horror Hodge was handed on a plate a safe labour seat by her Islington mate Tony Blair, after she royally fucked up at Islington council by turning her eyes away from the 52 children abused in the care home close to where I lived. For political expediency she brushed this scandal under the carpet and the peadophiles were sent away with council employment references, so they could fuck little kids elsewhere. She was later rewarded with the position of Minister for Children by Blair to add to her 'safe' seat in Barking. You couldn't make this up, could you?

Whilst in Barking, she pissed off the former mayor of Barking Patrick Manley a stalwart labour man for forty years, as well as the former/late well respected Jo Richardson MPs loyal staff and private secretary, all of these people turned against Hodge in the General elections. Hodge is an odious nasty hypocrite who enjoys the wealth of her families 2.1 billion pound steel empire fortune (they paid just 157k tax in UK) and her husbands legal practice. She lives in luxury in Islington as opposed to moving into the battlefield of her constituency.

Elsewhere migrants were being thrown into Barking and Dagenham with zero planning for coping with resources like schools, housing, education and healthcare. This was hugely encouraged by Margaret Hodge as it helped serve her political survival as newly arrived migrants are more likely to vote labour and paradoxically help her survive the BNP onslaught and cut into her vote.

I think it is worth considering that at no point ever are newly arrived immigrants encouraged to or moved into places like Knightsbridge, Chelsea or the richer parts of town where Hodge might live, they are without exception shoved/forced into the already struggling poor areas of the country, that is one of the major causes of tension and conflict where immigration is concerned. Nothing has been learnt from history in this respect.

End result? People locally feel under pressure and threatened and the shite cunts of the BNP exploit the situation and move in on these areas taking lots of votes off of white, and ironically some Asian and black people, all of whom would have traditionally been Labour voters. You will also find that UKIP also pick up votes this way too. It's truly skewed in Barking.

A note on Hodge..... In April 2006 she commented in an interview with The Sunday Telegraph that eight out of ten white white working class voters in her constituency might be tempted to vote for the BNP in the local elections on 4 May 2006 because "no one else is listening to them" about their concerns over unemployment, high house prices, and the housing of asylum seekers in the area. She said the Labour Party must promote "very, very strongly the benefits of the new, rich multi-racial society which is part of this part of London for me".

The Tory vote in Barking in recent elections is around the 5k mark, the Labour vote has decreased dramatically since Hodge took over from Jo Richardson. They are both stagnant there and will remain so in my view.

So in answer to your question both Ukip and BNP will pick up votes from labour origins as well as Tory ones, and I would suggest a fairly even split on the UKIP vote, (although the Tories will probably fare worse this time round, as they are this time the governing party and elements of the electorate of places lke Barking will want to rattle them).
 
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Sorry, I couldn't resist.
nigel-farage-pic-ins-news-image-1-193540038-219525.jpg
 
Many tories mps now expect to lose the next election according to ben brogan in the telegraph. But far more fun is the green-ink-tastic comments underneath - the frothing at the mouth, fruit bat tory supporters and reason the party is dieing a slow death. They hate - really really hate - cameron for not delivering some thatcherite, family values la la land - and
see that in UKIP instead.

Enjoy!

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/b...ive-party-is-in-danger-of-dying-on-its-knees/

We have passed a tipping point - the majority of households (53.4%) now get more from benefits and public services than they pay in taxes www.snouts-in-the-trough.com There are more people in the wagon than are pulling it. In this situation, people will vote for more government, more borrowing and more spending (Labour) until we are bankrupt
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Just look at the state of our once beautiful country, over-run with hordes of muslims,Bulgarians etc.........its looking more and more like Bangladesh on a bad day.

Soon we will be classed as a third world country, if not already.
The people who did this to our country should be hung, drawn and quartered
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By far most of the problems in the Uk come from the breakdown in the marital family. The national debt is due to the fact that the state has to be the adopted husband to millions of women and the adopted father who has to deal with millions of kids who didn't get the loving discipline that many other us got. Pretty much every social problem we have is multiplied 3 fold because of family breakdown. About 1/3 of our health system, 1/2 of our justice system, 1/3 of the benefit system exists solely because of marital breakdown - and all of it has to be paid for.

There is no department of marriage and family in the whole university system - but I can study gender studies at 6 universities. There is almost no research on pilot projects to help struggling couples. There are NO conferences on marriage - and how to strengthen it - only conferences on diversity, There is almost no learning curve as to how social workers can coach distressed couples to a higher level of relationship competence. But they can learn that roots of the social problems from a marxist perspective.
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This is a big part of UKIP appeal - they can promise this dailymail utopia of no poofs, no foreigners and no brussels to the 20% or so of the population who cant and wont deal with a changed society or that fact that the UK is a middle ranking european power and has been since 1945. The tory party - trying to govern in the real world - can never satisfy this, but this is there support base - so they have lynton crosby in the throw them a few bones but they are not buying it. In fact everytime the tories bang on about immigration (i.e. talking tough to prevent the impending roma-geddon ) the UKIP vote goes up.
 
Another UKIP member has their true colours revealed:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/dec/08/ukip-victoria-ayling-immigration-nigel-farage

Link is to a Guardian article about the UKIP coucillor's comments when still a member of the tory party but the story was actually splashed across the front page of the MOS (who broke the story) with accompanying 'shock! horror!' toned headline and leader. So it just goes to show there really is no level of hypocrisy which the Mail group of lavpapers won't sink to...

If you do end up going over to the MOS site, the comments are the predictable frothy, racist, far-right obnoxiousness of the worst sort that you would expect from the Mail's more knuckle-draggy following. You have been warned.
 
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That story was in the Mail yesterday. In fact it garnered a full front page in the same way serial killers caught do. Seemed rather OTT to me. I say that because I think the Mail has an agenda about this. Certainly she isn't saying, in that clip, anything that, for those who know what UKIP are really like, is all that shocking. So I think the Mail are trying to make her sound more shocking thatn she actually is in a curious attempt to normalise what she actually says. The Mail is certainly not pro immigration or multiculturalism. Consequently the reader is invited to think 'actually that's not as lurid or shocking as I expected'.

If that makes any sense. Clearly to right thinking people she's another tedious swivel eyed corporate apologist and bigot.
 
Bit paranoid that. It's pretty simple - the Mail wants to make sure UKIP toe their line, it's a bit of aggressive flirting - and it's done in order to get the tories to really toe the line - the last thing the tories want is the mail to back UKIP in 2015 (and the 2014 euros is going to give some indication how that is going to play out).

This video was filmed when the woman was in the tory party btw and she was referring to what she wants/expected to be tory party policy. She's doing what loads of tories/labour/lib-dem/ukip members do - keep their real views on immigration quiet - this one just happens to be both ambitious and stupid so got herself caught out.This simply isn't just a UKIP thing.
 
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Yeah, it was negligent of me not to mention in my post that the original vid was shot a few years ago when she was still in the tory party. Although the grauniad article does cover that aspect of the story... My view of UKIP is that it has always been a home for the nutty tory right and the more of their tory defectors that get caught on this shit, the better. It ends up making both lots look like a bunch of cunts and that can't be a bad thing :)
 
Not convinced. Stories like this and Farage didn't get on with a teacher 40 years ago look like a really blunt hatchet that's as likely to entrench their support more than anything. Still all is not lost, who'd have thought six months ago the EDL would be a former UKIP parliamentary candidate. I suspect some classier character assassins are in hesitant crouch
 
My prediction is for some form of UKIP-Con pact which will guarantee Tories and UKIP gain seats. I can see future governments being Tory -UKIP coalitions and when Clegg goes Labour -Lib Dem coalitions. Sadly I see UKIP will be here for good unless The Tories become staunchly against the EU.

Far right parties such as the BNP shall come and go. They are like a boil they get big, cause some pain then burst and disappear.
 
The Mail seem to have it in for Ayling.

http://www.thisislincolnshire.co.uk...tory-20324704-detail/story.html#axzz2nYS0LN9C

A national newspaper has claimed that Lincolnshire UKIP councillor Victoria Ayling was once a member of the far-Right National Front.

The Mail on Sunday says that Victoria's mother, a family friend and her ex-husband have spoken to them about her political activities with the extremist organisation in the 1970s.

Brenda Brooks, who is 81, apparently told the newspaper that her East Lindsey District Council member daughter began going to NF meetings above a pub in Croydon, south London, in 1977.

Yet Mrs Ayling has claimed that her presence at the group's gatherings was merely part of an academic research project.

The former Conservative's mother is also said to have claimed that Victoria attended rallies, marches, and campaign meetings for one of the far-Right party's election candidates in 1979.

The new revelations follow the Mail on Sunday's recent publication of a video from 2008 which shows Ayling airing controversial views about immigrants. She claimed the comments had been taken out of context.

Brenda Brooks allegedly described Victoria's NF involvement as being a 'phase'.

And a former friend claims they were active in the NF together, and is said to have referred to her as 'card-carrying'.

The Mail also claim that her ex-husband Rob Ayling has also come forward to allege that he helped to cover up her past activities when they were married.

His former wife has defended herself, according to the newspaper, by stating that she attended meetings as part of a research thesis while studying law at Southampton University and that she was not a paid-up NF member.

Mr Ayling apparently said this version of events was concocted by the pair of them as a cover story when she stood as a Conservative party candidate in 1999.
He is then said to have claimed his ex-wife was active in far-Right politics while still at school, and that such a thesis would have been irrelevant to a law degree.

The Mail also adds that Brenda Brooks refuted the 'research' excuse and said Victoria had never mentioned such a project while a student.
Ayling, 54, has only been a UKIP councillor since May.

The newspaper also revealed that they believed Lincolnshire Police had interviewed the former couple over an alleged domestic dispute at their home soon before their split in 2012.

Mrs Ayling was accused during the incident of calling her spouse a 'bad tranny' in reference to his alleged cross-dressing activities.
No charges have been brought.
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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-police-probe-abuse-transvestite-husband.html
 
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