Ukip - why are they gaining support?

[nino_savatte]

Dr Eric Edmond's blog

Bloom rains on Farage's big day

I have no sympathy for Farage. He chose, supported and lived with Bloom in Brussels and deserves all the odure that will now descend on UKIP followings Bloom's assault on a journalist and insulting remarks about women. The latter he has done before and been able to shelter behind the great leaders jack boots but not this time. The media have tasted blood and now they will go after Farage big time.

UKIP's rank and file I have great sympathy for. They have been let down badly by their leadership and seen their cause seriously damaged. There are lots of Blooms at the top of UKIP. I wonder when that penny will drop with the UKIP foot soldiers. They have to take back control of the party from Farage, Crowther and Nuttall very quickly or their cause will end up in the trash can of history.

For me this most depressing sight was to see Annabelle Fuller shepherding Bloom along the street away from the media. Fuller is an intimate friend of Farage who 5 years ago claims she left in a London taxi her lap top containing confidential test interviews with every UKIP MEP candidate for the 2009 European elections. Only two people had access to that material Fuller and Clive Page the then UKIP press officer. One interview with a candidate whose campaign the Cabal wished to sabotage was subsequently posted on the web with the demeaning headline, 'How not to do politics' . It was posted from Morocco.

Ms Fuller had spent holidays in Morocco. Ms Fuller's explanation was that the lap top was returned to her some days later by the London cabbie and that he or others must have posted the interview on the web.Presumably the lap top had made a trip to Morocco and back!
http://ukiptruth.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/bloom-rains-on-farages-big-day.html

Edmond claims to be a member of UKIP's NEC.

 

[gosub]

Dr Eric Edmond's blog


Edmond claims to be a member of UKIP's NEC.

http://juniusonukip.blogspot.co.uk/2009/02/fascism-in-ukip-dr-eric-edmond-is.html

 

[nino_savatte]

http://juniusonukip.blogspot.co.uk/2009/02/fascism-in-ukip-dr-eric-edmond-is.html

Whoops. Make that ex-NEC member and former candidate.

 

[Corax]

even that loathsome ultra right sociopath guido fawkes seems to have it in for Farage now.

There's a lot out there on him (google junius in UKIP, or the "Dr Edmunds" blog linked from it).

There does appear to be a small minority in UKIP fairly aghast at the behaviour of the leadership of the party, and Phallange in particular. His speech was tepid and the conference- an important one for UKIP in building credibilty- has been a grandstanding disaster.

This is the difference now that UKIP have become a touch more mainstream- their conference is no longer in a remote telephone box on a new university campus, but is covered by the media with quite a lot of interest. It's not just of interest to politics geeks, psephologists and purple-and-yellow-bow-tie wearers with extravagant facial hair. Drunken fights amongst the leadership in response to policy differences used only to make the funny pages of Private Eye, now they make the front pages.

Not that they will actually do anything, or that it would even matter if they did, though. But a rubbishing of UKIP in the MSM is one the cards for the next few months and it may well sweep away Phallange, who is clearly out of his depth. He might be able to present himself as an amiable blokey troublemaker but the media I suspect will expose that painfully, as Crick began to do last week.

What will be interesting is if the press go down the route of exposing UKIP as monomaniac oddballs, or, rather, if the y will follow the failed HnH / Searchlight tactics of shrieking about individual criminality and extremist right wing views. The destruction of UKIP this week in the press and the recent interest from state-sponsored antifascists in the party, can hardly be coincidence.

My instant reaction on reading that post was slightly gleeful at the idea of their vote collapsing.

But where are those votes going to go?

UKIP imploding will be to the tories' gain, won't it...?

 

[steeplejack]

Their Westminster vote has always been at best mediocre. That conference was supposed to be an early warning shot for Westminster 2015 and an attempt to build their credibility. Unfortunately Phallange's unicycle of seriousness went downhill at top speed straight into a big steaming pyramid of Godfrey Bloom's faeces, and the whole operation won't stop smelling now for quite a while.

the core UKIP voters will still return purple and yellow clad buffoons to a millionaires lifestyle as part of an institution they affect to despise. But their "Be Taken Seriously" plan has been scuppered for now.

 

[laptop]

UKIP imploding will be to the tories' gain, won't it...?

I want a button for "rueful assent" and I want it now.

 

[butchersapron]

Is the evidence for an implosion in their support/vote? I can't see any. At best the usual peaks and troughs of smaller party support can be pointed to and they are having a trough moment right now - but at a far higher level of opinion polling than they or any similar party has done for many many years, and at a consistently higher level than the lib-dems.

 

[nino_savatte]

I've just read on Twitter that Bloom has left UKIP and will sit as an 'independent'.

 

[King Biscuit Time]

How does it work when someone elected in a list-based election gets the whip withdrawn? Presumably once you've been made an MEP (off your parties list) you're still an MEP if you leave the party unless you step down from parliament too?

 

[butchersapron]

You are an independent - until/if you take another parties whip.

 

[gosub]

How does it work when someone elected in a list-based election gets the whip withdrawn? Presumably once you've been made an MEP (off your parties list) you're still an MEP if you leave the party unless you step down from parliament too?

Yep but in the meantime next one down party list also becomes MEP, I think.

 

[King Biscuit Time]

Yep but in the meantime next one down party list also becomes MEP, I think.

I'm not sure that's right. Although that can happen in some circumstances (iirc the BNP had a rule that if you were elected as an MEP you had to serve four years, then step down and give someone else a year's experience) - Perhaps you can only do this if you personally step down as an MEP as well as being kicked out of your party.

 

[butchersapron]

Yep but in the meantime next one down party list also becomes MEP, I think.

No.

 

[gosub]

You are right apparently, http://www.eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=84346.

How that squares with elections run on voting for party and MEP's appointed from lists I don't know but then it's EUropean politics

 

[butchersapron]

UKIP put in a great series of local votes last night - holding where they had previously done well and doing well where they previously had not stood. The main losers in latter were tories but labour saw few % points lost as well. Pattern seems to to be around 22-25% whether standing first time or not. Won seat from labour as well (sevenoaks).

 

[butchersapron]

Apologies for the akehurst link, but here is the details of those elections last night, look at the ukip swings.

http://lukeakehurst.blogspot.co.uk/2013/09/council-by-elections_27.html?m=1

 

[nino_savatte]

More to the point, he's assured of his EP pension no matter what, isn't he?

More than likely. It's a gravy train, innit.

 

[butchersapron]

Why a UKIP/Tory pact is fantasy land.

In YouGov’s poll this morning for the Sun the Conservatives had 33 percent support, Labour 40 percent, the Liberal Democrats 9 percent and Ukip 11 percent. While it would be a gross exaggeration to say all of Ukip’s support comes from the Conservative party, they do gain a disproportionate amount of support from ex-Tories and it’s natural for people to add together that Conservative 33 percent and that Ukip 11 percent and think what might be.

The reality though may not be as simple as adding the two together. In yesterday’s poll we also asked people to imagine that Ukip and the Conservatives agreed a pact at the next general election where they would not stand against each other, with Ukip backing the Conservative candidate in most constituencies and the Conservatives backing the Ukip candidate in a small number of constituencies. We then asked how they’d vote under those circumstances. Once you’ve taken out the don’t knows and wouldn’t votes, the new Conservative/Ukip alliance would be on 35 percent of the vote (up just two points on their current support), Labour would be on 45 percent (up five points on their current support), the Liberal Democrats on 11 percent (up two points), 9 percent of people would vote for other parties (down eight points).

 

[butchersapron]

More to the point, he's assured of his EP pension no matter what, isn't he?

More than likely. It's a gravy train, innit.

He's assured of not one, but two pensions from the taxpayer as a result of being an MEP.

 

[butchersapron]

Interesting that both Ken Clarke and Michael Hesseltine have come out attacking UKIP as loons and racists today. I think the traditional left of the party senses they have to do something right now to stop the party running off to the radical right (whether in the party or with another). It's too late i feel though, they are now trapped whichever way they move. Any move at all is going to alienate one constituency. Move to the centre and they lose to UKIP (whose figures have remaained around 11-13% no drop at all due to Bloom) move to the right and they lose the soft-tory vote (which is going to be the key to the next election for them). And a move to the right won't stop UKIP anyway, it'll embolden them.

 

[Delroy Booth]

I think that makes sense. They aren't going to stop UKIP or even slow them down if they just keep going further and further to the right. David Cameron made a brief mention of the US government shutdown on radio 4 yesterday too I notice. Perhaps some of the smarter Tories have an eye on what's happening in the US and are afraid they'll end up being held to ransom by the radical right in their own party and UKIP? Scared of Paul Dacre and Daily Mail calling for a UKIP vote at the General Election, something foreshadowed when they backed the Marine Le Pen in the French presidential election?

 

[butchersapron]

I think that makes sense. They aren't going to stop UKIP or even slow them down if they just keep going further and further to the right. David Cameron made a brief mention of the US government shutdown on radio 4 yesterday too I notice. Perhaps some of the smarter Tories have an eye on what's happening in the US and are afraid they'll end up being held to ransom by the radical right in their own party and UKIP? Scared of Paul Dacre and Daily Mail calling for a UKIP vote at the General Election, something foreshadowed when they backed the Marine Le Pen in the French presidential election?

Yep, and the miliband stuff this week gave a clear indication of what nuttiness they may end up if they don't act now. A polarisation agenda a la the tea party will destroy them for a long long time.

 

[Quartz]

Surely they are not that suicidal? I can see them calling for a UKIP vote for the Euro elections, but not the General Election. Unless they actually want the Tories to lose and be consigned to oblivion. Perhaps they are hoping for a repeat of Canada?

 

[Corax]

David Cameron made a brief mention of the US government shutdown on radio 4 yesterday too I notice. Perhaps some of the smarter Tories have an eye on what's happening in the US and are afraid they'll end up being held to ransom by the radical right in their own party and UKIP?

How would that work? IIUC the US 'shutdown' situation isn't possible in the UK - or not due to parliamentary refusals anyway.

 

[laptop]

How would that work? IIUC the US 'shutdown' situation isn't possible in the UK - or not due to parliamentary refusals anyway.

The specific mechanics of the shutdown clearly don't apply. But the Mail is, I think, leading a campaign to hold the Tories to ransom from the right...

... with some large success in terms of policy pronouncements, like making noises that sound like cutting all benefits for under-25s.

 

[Corax]

The specific mechanics of the shutdown clearly don't apply. But the Mail is, I think, leading a campaign to hold the Tories to ransom from the right...

... with some large success in terms of policy pronouncements, like making noises that sound like cutting all benefits for under-25s.

Not convinced that's the Mail holding them to ransom tbh. I think it's what they want to do anyway.

The Mail didn't hold them to ransom over disability benefits, the bedroom tax, or any of the other viciousness they've introduced did they?

 

[butchersapron]

UKIP 2nd in 3/4of last nights by-elections. And all within that 20-28% range i talked about last week -whether standing for the first time or not.

 

[brogdale]

UKIP 2nd in 3/4of last nights by-elections. And all within that 20-28% range i talked about last week -whether standing for the first time or not.

Heseltine et al calling 1/4 of the electorate racist; that'll go down well.

 

[Delroy Booth]

UKIP 2nd in 3/4of last nights by-elections. And all within that 20-28% range i talked about last week -whether standing for the first time or not.

I spoke to someone in the Labour party who had been involved in the Wombwell by election yesterday. It's a very safe Labour seat, not one they were ever going to lose (they ended up with 67%), but UKIP finished 2nd with 24.9% whereas the Tories were languishing down in 3rd with 4.9%, a mere 81 votes. So it was Labour against UKIP Tory, English Democrat and he said it was like running against 3 far-right candidates, whereas in Barnsley they were more used to just dealing with one in that area (the BNP, which has fallen apart) and also noted no Lib Dem or left candidate, not even a paper one. This is a pretty working class area, there ought to be a left candidate even if it's just a paper TUSC one. But then Wombwell is a bit more diverse than some areas, I know it's Barnsley but believe it or not there are some fairly middle-class areas in Wombwell too, and the historically the Tories have been capable of polling upto a 1/3 of the vote in some elections in years gone by. But the funny thing is the middle-classes there are like public sector workers, or people who might fit the profile of a Tory but who had a dad or grandad who was a miner so can't vote Tory on principle, and they've basically carried on voting Labour even as they've been gentrified and made middle-class. A lot of these people reliably vote Labour, but my mate is worried that UKIP might be a more appealing option to them than the Tories. He's also worried that in a few years in seats like this it'll be Labour 1st UKIP 2nd, which is just like the situation prior to 2010 when the BNP was coming second in a close lot of safe Labour areas like this. Also the BNP vote came from the more economically deprived areas, whereas now those areas seem to be voting Labour again, but the more middle-class Labour-ish areas seem more willing to vote UKIP's than they are Tory or BNP. At least in Barnsley, I suspect that's different elsewhere.

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

Another instance of why UKIP are doing so well : BBC running a story that NF is to stand for parliament!

Sorry, I should have advised more sensitive readers to be seated at the seismic news that a politician was going to tilt at being an MP.

This is still the better part of 2 years out, but there's a solemn duty to report the slightest UKIP story even though the BBC is run by a cabal of Marxists overseen by arch leftie Chris Patten.