Ukip - why are they gaining support?

[brogdale]

Good timing this: Pictured with Nigel Farage: ex-public schoolboy in Chelsea fans racism storm

how convenient.

 

[butchersapron]

Something that seems to be missing there is any idea of how many previously-not-voters are now intending to vote UKIP (or whatever).

I don't think I've seen that being measured anywhere (though I might have missed it) and I'm wondering if it's potentially significant in confirming that support for UKIP is more about protest or rejection of the established parties than explicit with the UKIP position (assuming we can completely seperate the two, which is probably not possible).

Not had time to go through the data tables but they usually take 2010 vote/non-vote into account.

 

[andysays]

Not had time to go through the data tables but they usually take 2010 vote/non-vote into account.

OK, I'm not asking you to spoon feed me - I haven't seen it before, but I'm happy to accept that I've missed it.

So is there (assuming you can remember without going through your database) any evidence to suggest that previous non-voters are more likely to now support UKIP than other parties, taking into account the relative size of support of those other parties?

 

[Dogsauce]

I'd assume UKIP voters will be more motivated and likely to vote, enthused by the 'new', both main parties aren't really offering much that even their own supporters can engage with strongly. It would have made a big difference in the Euro elections (where a lot of people can't be arsed getting out), probably less so in a national election.

 

[butchersapron]

OK, I'm not asking you to spoon feed me - I haven't seen it before, but I'm happy to accept that I've missed it.

So is there (assuming you can remember without going through your database) any evidence to suggest that previous non-voters are more likely to now support UKIP than other parties, taking into account the relative size of support of those other parties?

Can't recall off top of head, i suspect (given the research Goodwin etc have done identifying UKIP supporters) there is support amongst alienated previous non-voters - the sort of people who the BNP were making inroads into 6 or 7 years back. In the BNP's case it mean they had some room to grow without having to directly win votes from the other parties to drop (but that was always limited due to their history etc). I think UKIP have very probably eaten up all that possible non-voting support now and so are going to have to win actual voters from other parties.

 

[andysays]

Can't recall off top of head, i suspect (given the research Goodwin etc have done identifying UKIP supporters) there is support amongst alienated previous non-voters - the sort of people who the BNP were making inroads into 6 or 7 years back. In the BNP's case it mean they had some room to grow without having to directly win votes from the other parties to drop (but that was always limited due to their history etc). I think UKIP have very probably eaten up all that possible non-voting support now and so are going to have to win actual voters from other parties.

Thanks for that.

Your last point addresses an additional question that I wasn't asking about, but that's interesting/significant too.

 

[treelover]

this sounds like an unlikely story - who?

I've no idea, the dockers started shouting as he drove past and shouted scab, one of them saying how he was one of the 47.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I've no idea, the dockers started shouting as he drove past and shouted scab, one of them saying how he was one of the 47.

Oh, right, so before it was you saying one of the 47 crossed a picket line and now it's someone else?

Convenient.

 

[ViolentPanda]

Why do you think it's odd that she's a Christian?

She was Chair of the national exec of the party, that's pretty important, more so than being a councillor.

Chairing the NEC hasn't had much kudos (or power) since new Labour turned the NEC into purely a rubber-stamping exercise for party policy back during Blair's first term.

 

[SpackleFrog]

Chairing the NEC hasn't had much kudos (or power) since new Labour turned the NEC into purely a rubber-stamping exercise for party policy back during Blair's first term.

Yeah but it's more important than being a councilor and has some symbolic value.

 

[brogdale]

4 new tory held UKIP target seats polled by ashcroft (i'll check what # in the target seats they are in a sec):

Anthony @YG expresses some surprise that Ashcroft chose to include NE Cambs in the list of marginals...

North East Cambridgeshire seems like a rather odd choice to begin with, it doesn’t look like an obvious place for UKIP success and while Ashcroft doesid find UKIP in second place, the poll gives the Conservatives a very solid 21 point lead. (detailled tabs)

 

[Fingers]

Jaw dropping

 

[nino_savatte]

"I don't know whether it's something in my psyche or whether it's karma from a previous life".

This one is not only a racist in denial but she believes in mumbo-jumbo too.

 

[J Ed]

Why is racism juxtaposed with those with those dolls somehow worse?

 

[Fingers]

"I used the word 'negroes' as you would do Asians, Chinese, Muslims, Jews. It's a description, it's not an insult - in the same way as you would say, 'What do you mean by Jewish? Well, they belong to a community, they have got a certain faith, they have usually got noses that have got a bit of a curve to them, married women - if they are orthodox Jews - wear wigs.' It's description."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31565770

 

[nino_savatte]

She's the kind of person who would complain "Well, why can't I call a black person a n*gger? They use it all the time to each other".

 

[brogdale]

"...whether something happened to me as a very young person, and I've drawn a veil over it..."

How multi-cultural.

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

At least she prefaced her comments by saying she's not racist, because racism could have seemed distinctly possible otherwise. This is the problem though, you cant even say you don't like negros these days without some yoghurt knitter screaming about you being racist. Imagine if she was racist though, what might she have said then?

 

[brogdale]

tbf to 'dog-sitting friend'; she seemed none too impressed.

 

[Prince Rhyus]

Twitter's just exploded on the #MeetTheUkippers hashtag over this documentary shown on the BBC just now. http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0544dry

 

[gosub]

I loved when Mr Farage explained before x date (in run up to the EUro elections) very few people thought UKIP were racist, then loads of people did, and attributed this change to the media..... Not the rather nasty billboards UKIP put up and down the country.

 

[nino_savatte]

Rozanne Duncan was still digging herself a hole on Twitter earlier. At this rate, they'll be hiring her for the next major tunnelling project.

 

[Dogsauce]

Her attitude is weird, more like a phobia than a prejudice. It's bewildering that she can't recognise what's wrong with it.

 

[Greebo]

So many levels of wrongness. Second item on Woman's Hour today - women standing for UKIP.

 

[laptop]

Rozanne Duncan was still digging herself a hole on Twitter earlier. At this rate, they'll be hiring her for the next major tunnelling project.

So long as she is buried in Hackney and goes to Chelsea, not the other way around

 

[gosub]

Ironically, its Channel 4 thats saved UKIP's arse today, with the Dispatches story on Straw and Rifkind getting the media attention.

 

[Ax^]

Even the BBC doc is not going to harm ukips core support its how they think.

As far as they think Why should they not be able to say things like that without being labelled as racist,

Trying to hide their own prejudice under the umbrella of free speech

 

[Dogsauce]

Ironically, its Channel 4 thats saved UKIP's arse today, with the Dispatches story on Straw and Rifkind getting the media attention.

Less ironic when you consider it was a joint sting with the Daily Telegraph, although their loyalty to the tory flag doesn't make them the biggest fans of UKIP.

Having this and the fictional C4 '100 days of UKIP' running in within a few days isn't exactly going to quash the narrative of a liberal media/establishment plot to stitch up UKIP, a paranoia that they feed off very nicely. This allows the party to portray any scandal or exposure as a stitch-up and present themselves as the victims. It's useful to them.

 

[gosub]

Less ironic when you consider it was a joint sting with the Daily Telegraph, although their loyalty to the tory flag doesn't make them the biggest fans of UKIP.

Having this and the fictional C4 '100 days of UKIP' running in within a few days isn't exactly going to quash the narrative of a liberal media/establishment plot to stitch up UKIP, a paranoia that they feed off very nicely. This allows the party to portray any scandal or exposure as a stitch-up and present themselves as the victims. It's useful to them.

Telegraph gave it 5* this morning, rightly I think.

C4 you could say was a stitch up, but the Beeb one, well you would chose Thanet coz thats where their most prominent politician is standing, and then you would talk to the elected councillor, the deputy chairman the lcal press officer etc.... and they hit paydirt. Hard to use media distortion or few bad apples as a defense. but yep its useful with half of UKIP voters admitting they are racially prejudiced, water off a ducks back in some respect.

The damage it does to No to EU in any forthoming referendum though, that's another story.

 

[marty21]

it was car crash telly - and UKIP can't even complain that they were duped or it was secret filming - they invited the camera crew in ffs