Ukip - why are they gaining support?

[laptop]

ONS: percentage of population over 65...

At a glance, that explains almost everything except the Welsh Valleys...

Does anyone have a moment to overlay the maps? (XOR? Subtractive?)

 

[Dan U]

Looking at that map, it appears people living on the coast are the most fearful of outsiders. I suppose they'd be the first casualties of the incoming 'tidal wave' of immigrants, terrified of the Romanian hordes in their amphibious landing craft.

They still remember the Normans and the Vikings

 

[brogdale]

At a glance, that explains almost everything except the Welsh Valleys...

Does anyone have a moment to overlay the maps? (XOR? Subtractive?)

I think it's a good deal more complex than just age. It's possible to look at other (surrogate) spatial patterns of deprivation and see areas of correlation...

 

[laptop]

I think it's a good deal more complex than just age. It's possible to look at other (surrogate) spatial patterns of deprivation and see areas of correlation...

Ah! "By inspection" (as the lecturer who hadn't prepared armwaved), that plus aged population would seem to correlate almost totally with UKIP vote.

 

[2hats]

<voice="Peter Snow"> Just a bit of fun </voice> - very roughly combining no qualifications and over 65 then comparing to the earlier map of hotbeds of kippery:

 

[laptop]

<voice="Peter Snow"> Just a bit of fun </voice> - very roughly combining no qualifications and over 65 then comparing to the earlier map of hotbeds of kippery:
View attachment 68473 View attachment 68474

Ah! Living on the West Welsh coast, in Dorset or within shouting distance of Brighton have a protective effect

But little else does

 

[Diamond]

Am coming very late to this thread but is the emergent hypothesis that UKIP supporters correlate with the old and those lacking qualifications?

 

[laptop]

Am coming very late to this thread but is the emergent hypothesis that UKIP supporters correlate with the old and those lacking qualifications?

Erm, as far as I'm concerned it's a sort of statistical joke. But...

 

[brogdale]

Am coming very late to this thread but is the emergent hypothesis that UKIP supporters correlate with the old and those lacking qualifications?

The maps merely suggest a spatial correlation between areas of marked UKIP support and above (national) average levels of elderly and various indicators of deprivation. To test such a 'hypothesis', (if it is one?), much more detailed fieldwork would be required. Work like that of Goodwin and Ford certainly suggests that the correlation(s) are based in reality.

Divides in the social and economic experiences of voters have appeared, their values and priorities have been widening, and a new electorate of "left behind" voters has grown up. These voters are on the wrong side of social change, are struggling on stagnant incomes, feel threatened by the way their communities and country are changing, and are furious at an established politics that appears not to understand or even care about their concerns. And it is these left-behind voters who have finally found a voice in Farage's revolt.

Ukip has virtually no support among the financially secure and the thirty- and fortysomething university graduates who dominate politics and the media. Support is weak among women, white-collar professionals and the young. Ethnic-minority voters shun the party totally.

Make no mistake, this is a revolt dominated by white faces, blue collars and grey hair: angry, old, white working-class men who left school at the earliest opportunity and lack the qualifications to get ahead in 21st-century Britain.

 

[butchersapron]

They're starting to make inroads into the younger population:

Linked to age, there has been a shift in the pattern of Ukip support by housing tenure. Early supporters were far more likely to own their homes outright, and far less likely to rent privately. This is what one would expect when you have more than three times as many supporters over 60 than under 40. As Ukip voters have become younger, so fewer of them are outright homeowners and more of them rent privately.

On the other hand, when it comes to social class, Ukip’s support has become less representative of the electorate as a whole. These days, 43% of Britain’s voters are working class. Ukip’s initial support was already tilted that way, with 51% working class. The figure for recent converts is much higher: 61%.

 

[brogdale]

They're starting to make inroads into the younger population:

True enough, though how 'sticky' such newer support will prove is questionable. I'd guess that quite a high proportion of the reported 'leakage' over the last month or so might well be the younger demographic peeling away? Just a hunch.

 

[butchersapron]

True enough, though how 'sticky' such newer support will prove is questionable. I'd guess that quite a high proportion of the reported 'leakage' over the last month or so might well be the younger demographic peeling away? Just a hunch.

Might be worth a quick trawl through the data later, haven't time now - one thing though, if (and it's far from something we should take for granted) the UKIP blip has led to the tory upward movement, that may suggest it's the older voters wobbling.

 

[brogdale]

Might be worth a quick trawl through the data later, haven't time now - one thing though, if (and it's far from something we should take for granted) the UKIP blip has led to the tory upward movement, that may suggest it's the older voters wobbling.

Yeah, definitely time to have a look at the tabs; if I get more time later I might have a little trawl? Green 'surge' might be relevant for the young'uns?

 

[butchersapron]

I should think so yes.

 

[ViolentPanda]

Looking at that map, it appears people living on the coast are the most fearful of outsiders. I suppose they'd be the first casualties of the incoming 'tidal wave' of immigrants, terrified of the Romanian hordes in their amphibious landing craft.

With reference to Folkestone, Dover and environs, they've also had 20+ years of their xenophobic local paper (The Herald) putting the boot in and stirring shit.

 

[Lord Camomile]

Unfortunately I can't make it, but thought this might be of interest to some on here (apols if it's a repost).

Thu 19 Mar 2015, 19:30, Conway Hall

The Rise of UKIP: Where did it come from, and how far can it go in the general election?

With just weeks to go until arguably the most unpredictable General Election in a generation, London Thinks invites you to a discussion in which we try to understand the UK Independence Party. We will be discussing the party's origins, who its supporters are and just why its message has been so effective. Will the "UKIP earthquake" continue on to the general election, and what could that mean for the future of British politics?

 

[marty21]

If anyone does want to 'engage' with the kippers, they are all over Google +, there are a group of them who constantly post pro-kipper stuff, and a group of us who constantly argue with them -

 

[treelover]

They are all over social media, Guardian CIF, Local Fora, Telegraph, then you get the anti's, lots of discussions get lost in the firefight.

 

[treelover]

Make no mistake, this is a revolt dominated by white faces, blue collars and grey hair: angry, old, white working-class men who left school at the earliest opportunity and lack the qualifications to get ahead in 21st-century Britain.

Ford is very robust and unequivocal in his findings, one would think he is trying to make a name for himself.

 

[Dogsauce]

I think they're probably useful at taking up a lot of flak from 'online activists' etc. that might otherwise be directed at the other right-wing parties in power, a bit like the BNP used to be. Just seems like a big circle jerk while the political groups with power carry on unmolested.

(the difference with the BNP is that the BNP never really had a chance of going anywhere given the organisational calibre of the organisation - UKIP do have some potential to influence power beyond just making the other guys look less reactionary)

 

[Pickman's model]

Ford is very robust and unequivocal in his findings, one would think he is trying to make a name for himself.

he HAS made a name for himself. you're - as usual - well behind the curve. he has written at least at least 2 books and 20 articles or chapters.

 

[Pickman's model]

Ford is very robust and unequivocal in his findings, one would think he is trying to make a name for himself.

oh - and you don't seem to have noticed that article's from last may.

 

[treelover]

God, you are pedantic.

 

[Pickman's model]

God, you are pedantic.

you're full of fail. you don't recognise someone's ALREADY made a name for himself & you have difficulty (and not only on this thread) with the dates news was published. there's nothing pedantic about either of those points.

 

[brogdale]

Unfortunately I can't make it, but thought this might be of interest to some on here (apols if it's a repost).

Looks interesting; thanks for the heads-up. Unfortunately it costs £15 to hear these people speak, so not for me.

 

[laptop]

The Telegraph lifts parts of this thread today:

Mapped: where is Ukip's support strongest? Where there are no immigrants
What happens when you put a map of Ukip voters next to a map of immigrants in England and Wales? It turns out the two have very little in common

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...-strongest-Where-there-are-no-immigrants.html

 

[Poot]

Did anyone just hear Nigel Farrage on Radio 4? He was talking - I think - about how there were scholarships at his school, so he had grown up with a broad range of people from all sorts of backgrounds. In other words, to paraphrase, he was claiming that he met people of all walks of life at Dulwich College.

 

[bemused]

Did anyone just hear Nigel Farrage on Radio 4? He was talking - I think - about how there were scholarships at his school, so he had grown up with a broad range of people from all sorts of backgrounds. In other words, to paraphrase, he was claiming that he met people of all walks of life at Dulwich College.

To be fair I'm not sure any of the major three parties meet too many normal folk, unless it's on a pre-arranged visit. Whenever I see these folks out about about all that's missing to make it a parody of a Kim Jong-un photo op is the party members carrying note books.

The one thing I do give him over the other lot is he's actually had a real job.

 

[belboid]

The one thing I do give him over the other lot is he's actually had a real job.

commodities trading is a real job?

 

[bemused]

commodities trading is a real job?

It's more real than political researcher and script writer.

I'm not going to vote for him but when I hear interviewers like yesterday on LBC ask him what he thinks about a black nurse helping deliver the royal baby I just facepalm.

E