Ukip - why are they gaining support?

[Louis MacNeice]

Was faffing around in Foyles yesterday,(as Slavoj Žižek swanned through with a small entourage...btw),
and realised that I'd fallen for their 25th anniversary marketing schtick by flicking through loads of the GDR themed books.

Obviously, the Ostalgie stuff was well represented, but some of the better work explored the "social trends" type polling that has explored the developing and complicated relationship that many former, particularly older, Ossis have with their former state.

I was reading accounts of how many recalled the shock of the revelations of the luxurious life led by their former elite, and the extent to which they were surveilled. And yet there were plenty of expressions of regret that they had left a society in which there was security of employment, child care, equality and fairness of welfare provision etc...and a feeling of being left behind since die wende.

Then it struck me......and much of UKIP's support is concentrated in the East as well!

UKIPstalgie.

I don't want to make too much of this but two things struck on reading this (and I don't think you intended them at all...so I'm not having any sort of go at you):

1. Such expressions of regret seem admirable to me. They are reflections of aspirations for an admirable society and this remains true and useful even when expressed by Ossis (with their one sided nostalgia) or UKIPers (with their back to the future dreams).

2. If societies in which there is security of employment (or the material provisions that employment provides), child care, equality and fairness of welfare provision etc., are only available in the nostalgia of Ossis and the dreams of UKIPers, then we're stuffed. If the case can't be made for such societies without recourse to past totalitarianism or future nationalism then...

Cheers - Louis MacNeice

 

[brogdale]

I don't want to make too much of this but two things struck on reading this (and I don't think you intended them at all...so I'm not having any sort of go at you):

1. Such expressions of regret seem admirable to me. They are reflections of aspirations for an admirable society and this remains true and useful even when expressed by Ossis (with their one sided nostalgia) or UKIPers (with their back to the future dreams).

2. If socieies in which there is security of employment (or the material provsions that employment provides), child care, equality and fairness of welfare provision etc, are only available in the nostalgia of Ossis and the dreams of UKIPers, then we're stuffed. If the case can't be made for such societies without recourse to past totalitarianism or future nationalism then...

Cheers - Louis MacNeice

No offence taken at all Louis...I was musing, thinking aloud and just really exploring certain parallels that suddenly struck me....it's nice of you to join in with my ramblings.

1. Absolutely; I found some of the GDR reminiscences rather moving.

2. Yes. I think one of the things that has emerged throughout this thread is the disconnect between the aspirations of some UKIP voters and those of the party machine. tbf to Owen Jones he did attempt to highlight some of the more 'left-wing' aspirations/beliefs of many UKIP voters.

I think what struck me about the Ostalgie/'Kipper parallel, (if any exists?), is that both have found some electoral expression in parties, albeit on different ends of the linear spectrum, keen to portray their outsider/"insurgent" status, despite their establishment provenance.

 

[Idris2002]

I think what struck me about the Ostalgie/'Kipper parallel, (if any exists?), is that both have found some electoral expression in parties keen to portray their outsider/"insurgent" status, despite their establishment provenance.

A local colleague of mine was debating politics of immigration with his father-in-law, whose Ostalgie makes him vote for Die Linke. . . and after hearing his f-in-l's views on immigration he told him "if you think like that why don't you just vote for the far right". To which I replied "what the fuck did you tell him that for?"

 

[treelover]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2014/nov/12/what-nigel-farage-really-thinks-ukip-video

The Guardian has compiled a number of Farage speeches, etc on video and dissected them , it seems he has some very right wing ideas, no surprise there then,

 

[brogdale]

A local colleague of mine was debating politics of immigration with his father-in-law, whose Ostalgie makes him vote for Die Linke. . . and after hearing his f-in-l's views on immigration he told him "if you think like that why don't you just vote for the far right". To which I replied "what the fuck did you tell him that for?"

I understand that polling has consistently shown significantly higher rates of xenophobia and anti-immigrant expression in the former GDR.
Despite the hyped fraternal "contract worker" and 'student' immigration into GDR, for most East Germans, day-to day life would have been relatively mono-cultural; foreign nationals generally being <1% of the population if Soviet troops were excluded from the data. Sure, there were workers from Vietnam, Cuba, Mozambique etc., but the state tended to ensure that such foreign nationals were generally kept quite distinct and isolated.

So, I suppose that views like that expressed by your colleague's FiL are not un-common and represent yet another facet of Ostalgie, and a rather depressing parallel with some aspects of UKIP support.

 

[brogdale]

The Guardian has compiled a number of Farage speeches, etc on video and dissected them , it seems he has some very right wing ideas, no surprise there then,

Actually, material like this could potentially be helpful in attempting to drive a wedge between working class UKIP supporters and the party elite, but I fear that there are now a good many punters out there who are so determined in their support that they would not be prepared to hear or engage with the dissonance.

A small note, but why did the Guardian decide it was a good idea to attach a soundtrack of music that appeared to imply that Farage is some sort of a comedy buffoon? I would have thought the clips powerful enough without such 'gilding'.

 

[Awesome Wells]

The Guardian has compiled a number of Farage speeches, etc on video and dissected them , it seems he has some very right wing ideas, no surprise there then,

I liked it.

I did not like the soundtrack. 'The Entertainer' Farage is not, neither are his vile policies.

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

I fear that there are now a good many punters out there who are so determined in their support that they would not be prepared to hear or engage with the dissonance

Yep. Utter zealots.

 

[brogdale]

Yep. Utter zealots.

More like utterly disaffected and disenchanted.

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

More like utterly disaffected and disenchanted.

Those too for sure, but it was you who talked about a level of "determination" in support that transcends stark opposition to political interest. Determination in the face of facts is more in the ballpark of the zealot. You were talking about "punters" though, I suppose I was thinking of the legion of cheerleaders, for whom virtually all critique can be brushed off as "leftie smears".

 

[brogdale]

Those too for sure, but it was you who talked about a level of "determination" in support that transcends stark opposition to political interest. Determination in the face of facts is more in the ballpark of the zealot. You were talking about "punters" though, I suppose I was thinking of the legion of cheerleaders, for whom virtually all critique can be brushed off as "leftie smears".

Yes, I was using "punters" to indicate 'ordinary' voters, and I don't really see determination to vote UKIP as a form of fanatical commitment. I'd say that there is within working class UKIP support a determination to give the established parties a good kicking, irrespective of the vote representing a political choice against their own interest. That is why I was sceptical of the ability of material like the Guardian video to effect significant change in the perception of UKIP.

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

Yes, I was using "punters" to indicate 'ordinary' voters, and I don't really see determination to vote UKIP as a form of fanatical commitment. I'd say that there is within working class UKIP support a determination to give the established parties a good kicking, irrespective of the vote representing a political choice against their own interest. That is why I was sceptical of the ability of material like the Guardian video to effect significant change in the perception of UKIP.

It's hard to know what would effect such change. The hoax "alternative" narrative has now set in, partly stepping into LD shoes.

For a while I hoped/suspected the froth and hype would blow over, the bubble would burst. Then I realised that, although I don't watch them, shows like X Factor and The Apprentice still get loads of attention and hype many years into their runs, churning out the same stuff. That may sound like an odd comparrison, but we are talking "showbusiness for ugly people" here and NF certainly plays up to / into a vibe of being "different" and a bit more "celeb" like (stuff like those appearances on HIGNFY at a time when the party was still in "others" having fed into the spectacle)

I've started to toy with the idea that one way to deflate the (rather unbritish) arrogance of the cheerleaders (who are numerous and certainly pretend to be "normal punters") is to highlight how UKIP are really not so different after all in many ways.

Some of the BTL stuff on the guardian article were on this theme too, and I think it can be worked at.

NF seems to have completely U turned on a major issue. They also dodge questions and indulge every other trick indulged by political parties, as well as the economic stuff being mostly straight from the neo liberal consesnsus (even if they are partly and rightly embarrassed by it now).

If Cameron, Miliband or the other one were to so publically and inexpliably change such a key position, with such a weak blag from central office, the Kippers would rip all kinds of shit out of them for doing so. UKIP genuinelly are mroe of the same bad old politics, but perhaps it will take time for that idea to settle in, and it's not an idea the press seem keen to promote any time soon.

 

[brogdale]

He's still got it...

Sir John Major has attacked the UK Independence party (Ukip) for spreading profoundly un-British politics of “negativity and sheer nastiness”, as he warned the UK would be a less relevant nation if it left the European Union.

"....spreading politics of “negativity and sheer nastiness”...imagine that.

 

[teqniq]

Who knew?

 

[brogdale]

More defectors?

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

Back to the TTIP thing.
UKIP zealots can get very know-all and sweary when challenged, claiming they are against it.

But what's this?

"The Ukip MEP for south-west England and Gibraltar and the party's spokesperson for trade, has toldIBTimes UK that he supports the inclusion of the NHS and education in any free trade agreement negotiated between the EU and US."

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ttip-exclu...de-nhs-controversial-eu-us-trade-deal-1470790

Oh dear. It's like the NHS thing, they are flip flopping all over the place. It's the new politics.

 

[butchersapron]

Anyone got access to the piece here What Do UKIP Voters Think of the Economy? The blurb reads:

The by-election in Rochester & Strood will fuel debate about what is driving support for Ukip. Much has been written about how the party’s voters are concerned chiefly with immigration and Europe – but what are their economic views?

The assumption is that they are like Conservatives, only a bit further to the right. Like some of Ukip’s leading activists, we are told, their voters are diehard Thatcherites and free marketeers: they want low taxes, favour big business, are unconcerned about inequality and oppose strongly any attempt to redistribute wealth.

And Goodwin- the author of the piece - suggests the piece shows "that Ukip voters are closer to Labour on the economy than the Tories". and "Many assume that on economics Ukip voters are ultra Tories. But they are not."

 

[belboid]

Anyone got access to the piece here What Do UKIP Voters Think of the Economy? The blurb reads:



And Goodwin- the author of the piece - suggests the piece shows "that Ukip voters are closer to Labour on the economy than the Tories". and "Many assume that on economics Ukip voters are ultra Tories. But they are not."

that was pretty much what the last survey found, kipper's were slightly less likely than Labour voters to agree with statements like 'the economy is run in the interests of a few, not the majority' - but they were also far less likely to believe that government could do anything about those things. That was a poll carried out several months ago, before they got their recent boost, altho it doesnt sound like their opinions have changed much.

 

[butchersapron]

that was pretty much what the last survey found, kipper's were slightly less likely than Labour voters to agree with statements like 'the economy is run in the interests of a few, not the majority' - but they were also far less likely to believe that government could do anything about those things. That was a poll carried out several months ago, before they got their recent boost, altho it doesnt sound like their opinions have changed much.

Oh yeah, it's been fairly consistent for some years now - would just like some up-to-date info so that if i mention this people don't go - oh but that was from before their rise. Now it's just ultra-free marketeers and libertarians.

Oddly enough, those same people also tend to argue UKIP supporters were always simply well off golf club tories, the extreme right of the tories.

 

[Red O]

From Peter Kellner of YouGov, http://www.theguardian.com/commenti...-support-british-politics-voters-labour-party

'As many as 60% of “early” Ukip supporters voted Conservative in 2010. The figure for more recent converts is just 36%, much the same as the voting public as a whole. The proportion of Ukip voters coming from the Labour party has trebled from 7% to 23%.

'The age profile of more recent switchers is also much closer to that of the wider electorate. Ukip still underperforms among the under-40s, who supply 24% of its more recent converts, compared with 37% for the electorate as a whole – but that 24% is a marked increase on the 14% it was achieving when its support first started to climb two years ago. And whereas fully 51% of its initial surge came from people over 60, that figure is down to 31% among more recent converts, which is very close to the national average of 29%.

'[W]hen it comes to social class, Ukip’s support has become less representative of the electorate as a whole. These days, 43% of Britain’s voters are working class. Ukip’s initial support was already tilted that way, with 51% working class. The figure for recent converts is much higher: 61%.

'All this is consistent with European, local and byelection results this year. Ukip is now building support in traditional working-class Labour areas. Initially, Ukip was a far greater threat to the Tories, for it took nine votes from the Conservatives for every vote it took from Labour. Since early last year, for every nine votes it has taken from the Tories it has taken six from Labour.

'That said, I would be surprised if Ukip captured many seats from Labour next May: Grimsby, perhaps, and just possibly Rotherham. Labour’s real problem is that Ukip might establish itself as the clear challenger in dozens of Labour seats across the north, with a chance of squeezing the residual Tory and Lib Dem votes in 2020, and defeating a number of Labour MPs in that election.'

 

[DotCommunist]

http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politic...council_announces_defection_to_ukip_1_3852452

this bod is defecting in norfolk- article says he is a Cabinet member.

 

[Spanky Longhorn]

Yes council cabinet though not the real one

 

[DotCommunist]

see, I knew there was a reason it hadn't made the main news

 

[brogdale]

Two Conservative MPs are considering jumping ship to Nigel Farage’s party if it wins the Rochester and Strood byelection, Ukip candidate Mark Reckless said on Wednesday.

Reckless, the former Tory MP whose defection triggered the contest, made the claim on the eve of a vote likely to return him as Ukip’s second MP. Further defections would be likely to prompt a crisis in Downing Street about the haemorrhaging of the Tory vote six months before the general election, and potentially a move on David Cameron’s leadership.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/nov/19/two-tory-mps-defect-ukip-wins-rochester-reckless

Lol

 

[Wilf]

More defectors?

Shits deserting a sinking rat.

 

[Wilf]

There's something symbolic if the Tories drop under 300 seats. Not sure what really, but it looks pretty threadbare for a party leading a government. Good.

 

[ska invita]

Shits deserting a sinking rat.

i think these jumping torys are very short sighted though - in 5 years time UKIP will be in a sorry state im sure of it
anyhow, like that old rave tune goes, keep jumping you bastards!

 

[Awesome Wells]

Farage in the papers whining about the EU decision to reject Osborne and his case against capping banker's bonus is yet more evidence owhat UKIP are really about.

Ukip leader Nigel Farage told the Standard the court decision could influence voters in today’s crucial poll as it confirmed his party’s view that “we never win” in Europe.

He said: “A lot of people in Rochester and Strood commute to London to work in the finance industry. They will be reading about this in the Evening Standard on their way home and may well feel dismayed by the verdict.

“It is the constant drip, drip, drip of Britain losing every single negotiation and ruling. We never win and it’s time we woke up to that fact.”

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/poli...-by-eu-court-on-day-of-ukip-poll-9872556.html

 

[Awesome Wells]

Back to the TTIP thing.
UKIP zealots can get very know-all and sweary when challenged, claiming they are against it.

But what's this?

"The Ukip MEP for south-west England and Gibraltar and the party's spokesperson for trade, has toldIBTimes UK that he supports the inclusion of the NHS and education in any free trade agreement negotiated between the EU and US."

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/ttip-exclu...de-nhs-controversial-eu-us-trade-deal-1470790

Oh dear. It's like the NHS thing, they are flip flopping all over the place. It's the new politics.

The MEP for SW england is a Green party member iirc.

 

[butchersapron]

The MEP for SW england is a Green party member iirc.

There's more than one SW MEP .