Ukip - why are they gaining support?

[taffboy gwyrdd]

Awesome there are several meps for each region, 1 is green in the SW. I dunno if the"Gibraltar " is official, or ukip bibble.

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/11/20/why-ukips-rivals-are-fighting-wrong-battle/

 

[butchersapron]

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/11/20/why-ukips-rivals-are-fighting-wrong-battle/

Any comments? Anything?

 

[J Ed]

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/11/20/why-ukips-rivals-are-fighting-wrong-battle/

The place where Ukip voters want to live is that other country, the past. By four-to-one, they would prefer to turn the clock back 20-30 years rather than continue to live in Britain as it is today. No other party’s supporters think that.

For the vast majority of people that just makes good economic sense.

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

Butchers - my connection is cronky, my device fiddly, both in more ways than one

I think its a good, if unsurprising piece. Ive always suspected the point about a 10% core, the negativity (nationalism is often rooted in themes around NOT liking the country) and misinformed estimates on economy/benefits etc.

More broadly, im convinced that funelling sommany social issues down to that of migration is myopic, and lets the establishment off the hook for woeful disregards of housing, transport etc.

Its certainly an error to try and compete with ukip on anti migrant stuff, especially for the labour party, both strategically and morally i would say.

 

[laptop]

• Gove '100%' certain no more Tories will defect [to UKIP]

Damn. I have to send a message to IT support complaining that I damn well should be able to look up the bookies' odds from here, if not place a bet. They're blocking them

CC: First World Problems

 

[FNG]

http://www.edp24.co.uk/news/politic...council_announces_defection_to_ukip_1_3852452

this bod is defecting in norfolk- article says he is a Cabinet member.

Not sure if he is more of a liability to the Tories outside the party or in, managed to make a balls up of the Cromer town centre redevelopment plan. His proposal to move the market and the taxi rank were locally unpopular with public and traders alike.
Hopefully he'll fuck up Ukip even more.

 

[goldenecitrone]

For the vast majority of people that just makes good economic sense.

Indeed. The good old days of Thatcher, when you could buy your council house and not end up with a load of economic migrants living next door.

 

[treelover]

Are you saying J Ed is a tory or wacist?

 

[butchersapron]

He's saying, and it's the only thing he ever says apart from crap jokes - is that everyone else is a racist.

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

Certainly nothing "crap joke" about swapping "racist" for "wacist".

 

[butchersapron]

Certainly nothing "crap joke" about swapping "racist" for "wacist".

Are you sure?

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

gave it some thought, maybe it's bobbins after all.

 

[brogdale]

Mark Reckless has taken his oath. He was accompanied by Douglas Carswell and Philip Hollobone.

A clue there?

 

[Quartz]

Lib Dems < 500 votes!

 

[Quartz]

The BBC article shows that UKIP is strong in Inverness; why is that?

 

[butchersapron]

The BBC article shows that UKIP is strong in Inverness; why is that?

Where? What seat?

 

[mwgdrwg]

I keep having nightmares of living in a country run by a Tory-UKIP coalition

 

[Pickman's model]

The BBC article shows that UKIP is strong in Inverness; why is that?

do you think 3d place is strong? and why so?

 

[Pickman's model]

I keep having nightmares of living in a country run by a Tory-UKIP coalition

i keep having nightmares of living in a country run by politicians.

 

[brogdale]

do you think 3d place is strong? and why so?

Setting aside Inverness, that's a good map graphic of Ashcroft's polling...

 

[Pickman's model]

looking at it again i think that's 4th place

 

[brogdale]

looking at it again i think that's 4th place

or lower

 

[butchersapron]

The only polling i can see done in Danny Alexander's seat was the angry and bodged Oaksehott one that had UKIP in 5th on 6%. Which is why it's marked 4th or lower on the map in Quartz's link. Not sure why he thinks this is an indication of them being strong there.

 

[Pickman's model]

i'd like to hear Quartz explain why 4th place (or lower) suggests ukip in a strong position in inverness. but i don't suppose he will.

 

[Quartz]

Ah, I'd misread it as 3rd place rather than 4th or lower.

 

[brogdale]

This could easily go in the Guardian/shite thread, but....

In his victory speech Mark Reckless said that it was now “not Ed Miliband, but Ukip, that represents the concerns of most working men and women”. (See 8.42am.)

That sounds a bold claim. But, if you judge a party by the social class of its supporters, it is justified. In Sex, Lies and the Ballot Box: 50 Things You Need to Know about British Elections, Matthew Goodwin has an essay saying “Ukip is Britain’s most working-class party”. Here’s an extract.

Yes, [Ukip’s] base is very socially distinctive: but it is blue-collar, poorly educated, old, white and male. Far from a rebellion of the golf club, Ukip is Britain’s most working-class party. Indeed, to find a party support base that is as disproportionately working-class you need to go back to the Labour party in the early ‘80s, and the days of Michael Foot. Since 2010, the voters who have flocked to Farage look more like Old Labour than True Blue Tories: they are older whiter men, working-class, struggling financially and poorly educated.

So Reckless' claim is right according to the G?

 

[Pickman's model]

Ah, I'd misread it as 3rd place rather than 4th or lower.

yes. but third place isn't really a position of strength, is it? just ask the lib dems.

 

[brogdale]

yes. but third place isn't really a position of strength, is it? just ask the lib dems.

3rd? Since when?

 

[Pickman's model]

3rd? Since when?

until 2010 - since then they've had to make do with fifth, sixth, seventh.