Tory UK EU Exit Referendum

[paolo]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/11/david-cameron-european-union-referendum

Sounding like it could be nearer than expected.

I'm trying to work out what Cameron's strategy is in doing this. My take so far has that he didn't believe in the idea himself, but did it to play party politics (and to lesser degree, try to fend off a bleed to UKIP).

Is this early move an attempt to flush it out of the way, and more likely to get a 'Stay' vote? Or something else?

[My own view is that an exit is a terrible isolationist move - rob people of all sorts of benefits, such as rights and consumer protections, and damage business and the economy to boot - lose lose]

 

[frogwoman]

He wants to stay in the EU imo.

 

[brogdale]

He wants to stay in the EU imo.

His paymasters certainly do.

 

[Chick Webb]

He's obviously pro-EU, and he's confident that he can stir up enough fear to make the referendum a safe stay in vote. I think all that talk of renegotiating Britain's place in Europe is just guff too, and he doesn't really intend anything by it.

I think he's right too that fear of what might be lost will be the deciding factor in not leaving winning the referendum, but I'd be really curious to know how popular the option of leaving would be right now before the big fear campaign.

 

[kebabking]

i too think he wants to stay in, and i'm pretty sure that the overwhelming majority of tory voters want to stay in - a lot of that might well be reluctant 'in the absence of anything better' and 'its not perfect by any stretch, but its better than being out', but as we saw last week, the Tories are quite good at marshalling the reluctant vote...

i'll be voting to stay in, i think its critical for our economy, and i'd be hugely concerned about the strategic/geo-political effects of casting ourselves out of what is - for all its faults - the richest, and largest trading and political bloc on the face of the earth.

 

[brogdale]

Interesting Guardian piece here about the various options available for defining the electorate for the BrExit ref...

Basically revolves around issues of whether the criteria will be citizenship, nationality or residence. Add in the age question and the size of the electorate could vary by as much as 7.6 million!

Arguements ahoy!

 

[DotCommunist]

can we not call it brexit. Why does eveything about europe have to have some wanky new shorthand like the troika. Fucking obfuscatory is what I recon :shakes fist:

 

[brogdale]

can we not call it brexit. Why does eveything about europe have to have some wanky new shorthand like the troika. Fucking obfuscatory is what I recon :shakes fist:

You're right, of course. From now on we should properly refer to it as "Her Majesty's Government's proposed referendum on United Kingdom membership of the European Union". Snappier.

 

[weltweit]

"The EU Referendum" would suffice!

 

[skyscraper101]

Here's hoping some of the more vocal euro sceptic tories start shouting loudly throughout the campaign and the party falls apart like they did in the 90s. It's their kryptonite and I can toally see why they'd go early on a referendum to get it off the table fast.

 

[SpackleFrog]

My own view is that an exit is a terrible isolationist move - rob people of all sorts of benefits, such as rights and consumer protections

Such as?

 

[Kaka Tim]

Ironically the biggest threat to the sovereignty and power of united kingdom would be for it to leave the EU - as it would provoke a second scots independence referendum - and put norn ireland in a very interesting position as well. Independent ulster? I imagine it would be gift to the welsh independence movement as well.

 

[Lo Siento.]

The Tories and their paymasters want to stay in and probably (rightly) figure that it's best to have this referendum just after they've won an election.

 

[DotCommunist]

The Tories and their paymasters want to stay in and probably (rightly) figure that it's best to have this referendum just after they've won an election.

Don't think all of em do. My local was returned with a hefty landslide and would vote out.

 

[frogwoman]

When are we having it then?

 

[frogwoman]

Here's hoping some of the more vocal euro sceptic tories start shouting loudly throughout the campaign and the party falls apart like they did in the 90s. It's their kryptonite and I can toally see why they'd go early on a referendum to get it off the table fast.

I know im really looking forward to it. I'd vote to leave btw.

 

[weltweit]

Anyone who wants to leave can go live in Switzerland and leave the UK to its chosen path within the EU.

 

[weltweit]

I know im really looking forward to it. I'd vote to leave btw.

Why?

 

[frogwoman]

Anyone who wants to leave can go live in Switzerland and leave the UK to its chosen path within the EU.

Its chosen path?

We havent had the referendum yet!

 

[frogwoman]

Why?

I hate the EU.

I'm looking forward to watching the tories destroy themselves too.

 

[Lo Siento.]

Don't think all of em do. My local was returned with a hefty landslide and would vote out.

Not every MP, but the institution as a whole.

 

[frogwoman]

The greatest part of all this is that cameron specifically campaigned on an EU referendum. There is no way he can stop it happening without looking completely weak and incompetent. By the way I reckon people wi'll vote to stay in but im hoping for a very very narrow split.

 

[SpackleFrog]

The greatest part of all this is that cameron specifically campaigned on an EU referendum. There is no way he can stop it happening without looking completely weak and incompetent. By the way I reckon people wi'll vote to stay in but im hoping for a very very narrow split.

The campaign of abject terror they're gonna launch will make Project Fear in Scotland look like a light hearted debate club.

And Labour will line up with the Tories for a referendum campaign, again.

 

[frogwoman]

The campaign of abject terror they're gonna launch will make Project Fear in Scotland look like a light hearted debate club.

And Labour will line up with the Tories for a referendum campaign, again.

I know. It'll be amazing. I know the country will probably vote to stay in but it could be a 45-55 split.

 

[weltweit]

I hate the EU. ..

Seems quite a strong emotion to have about something that is basically a trade block.

 

[SpackleFrog]

I know. It'll be amazing. I know the country will probably vote to stay in but it could be a 45-55 split.

I reckon 55-45 is about bang on to be fair, might check the odds.

 

[brogdale]

The campaign of abject terror they're gonna launch will make Project Fear in Scotland look like a light hearted debate club.

And Labour will line up with the Tories for a referendum campaign, again.

I'm assuming that the vermin will be hoping that this time the disaffected will peel off to UKIP as a result of cuddling up with the enemy. Assuming the tory HQ can control events and establish a "Stay" vote, their strategy wrt the two constitutional referenda will look either brilliant or extremely lucky.

 

[frogwoman]

VOTE YES FOR CHAOS! NIGEL FARAGE! AND EXTREMISM!

 

[SpackleFrog]

Seems quite a strong emotion to have about something that is basically a trade block.

It was basically a trade block 40 years ago Weltweit, keep up!

 

[weltweit]

It was basically a trade block 40 years ago Weltweit, keep up!

The trade block bit is the bit I want to be in!!