Tory leadership contest 2024

[krtek a houby]

No option for Farage, when a fair number on here think it could be?

Not so long ago, got an absolute bollocking from another poster for suggesting (half jokingly) he might be a future PM.

So will go with the Johnson option, instead.

 

[tim]

Worst take on here for a while. unless the Tories incorporate Reform they’ll be polling 30% within 12 months of a Starmer government, they are in second place among voters aged 16-17 and look at Europe and who is propelling the populist right. Demographics as destiny was always wrong, now it’s also dangerously wrong.

There are no voters aged 16-17.

 

[Winot]

Cleverly

I think so too. Not a nutter (for a Tory) yet was loyal enough to pretend to be. Brown, so can pretend to be 'modern Britain'. Not too bright, which probably helps.

 

[tim]

someone white to appeal the reform voters

The sort of Reform voters who elected Ben Habib as an MP, presumably.

Edited to add that he isn't actually one of the infamous Five.

 

[Ax^]

The sort of Reform voters who elected Ben Habib as an MP, presumably.

hmm look at the shift from the tory party when they elected a non white party leader

mp level is fine if they are useful to the cause

 

[tim]

hmm look at the shift from the tory party when they elected a non white party leader

mp level is fine if they are useful to the cause

A similar of shift that would have happened had the Brexit/Deform Party stood againstTory incumbents in 2019.

 

[skyscraper101]

Badenoch

 

[Ax^]

A similar of shift that would have happened had the Brexit/Deform Party stood againstTory incumbents in 2019.

the incumbents where Boris and Corybyn

i'm calling ballocks to that last remark

 

[Winot]

 

[RD2003]

They do seem to be heavily reliant on Farage, whatever the attraction is meant to be. Maybe he’ll succumb to excessive drinking. Maybe a public spirited citizen will help him on his way.

At last, a bit of sophisticated political analysis from a Labour hack.

 

[tim]

.

the incumbents where Boris and Corybyn

i'm calling ballocks to that last remark

In 2019 Johnson was the incumbent MP in Uxbridge and Corbyn was the incumnent MP in Islington North. They were up, to the calling of the election, holders of those posts. Those who stood against them were the challengers. In 2019 the Brexit Party did not stand in seats where the incumbemt was a Tory MP.

In 2019 Falange predicted what subsequently came to pass on Thursday

As he spelled out his general election strategy at a rally in Hartlepool, which voted 70% to leave the EU, Farage said he had concluded that if the Brexit party had stood a candidate in every seat it could split the vote and usher in dozens of Liberal Democrat MPs and, in turn, create the circumstances for a second referendum.

incumbent

Brexit party will not contest 317 Tory-won seats, Farage says

 

[Ax^]

what was the tory return return on that election?

different day and different political situation

Farage talking out of his arse like he would of had the same result

Jeremey was the bad guy in that shit show not the tory party

 

[oryx]

Badenoch

That would be my guess, too.

 

[MrCurry]

From a personal perspective I would love to see Patel or Braverman win it. You just know they are going to let their authoritarian instincts run free and take the Tories so far to the right they will not be back in power for another 20 years.

Bookies seem to have singled out Badenoch as an early front runner though.

 

[klang]

From a personal perspective I would love to see Patel or Braverman win it. You just know they are going to let their authoritarian instincts run free and take the Tories so far to the right they will not be back in power for another 20 years.

Don't you think you and those around you would be affected by authoritarian right wing policy shaping, even if it's done by an opposition party?

 

[MrCurry]

Don't you think you and those around you would be affected by authoritarian right wing policy shaping, even if it's done by an opposition party?

I think everyone would be affected positively by the tories becoming less relevant and less electable, and after a big loss they are more vulnerable to the kind of infighting which could lead to their longer term decline into irrelevance. It’s far more likely to happen if they move to the right than if they stay closer to the centre imho

 

[klang]

I think everyone would be affected positively by the tories becoming less relevant and less electable, and after a big loss they are more vulnerable to the kind of infighting which could lead to their longer term decline into irrelevance. It’s far more likely to happen if they move to the right than if they stay closer to the centre imho

I think it depends mainly on labour's performance and how they deal with political opponents over the next few years.
Tory infighting helps and is always funny to watch, but a re-shape with the help of media launching a major anti-labour campaign is not out of the question.

 

[klang]

Populist right winging won't just go away. It will gain traction with labour failing the working class and the poor and marginalised over the next few years.
Patel and Braverman will want vote backs from Reform.

 

[Spandex]

From a personal perspective I would love to see Patel or Braverman win it. You just know they are going to let their authoritarian instincts run free and take the Tories so far to the right they will not be back in power for another 20 years.

Bookies seem to have singled out Badenoch as an early front runner though.

More often than not governing parties lose elections rather than opposition parties win elections. Labour's huge majority is largely down to a split on the right rather than any great love for them. Unless they do a great job - and on their track record in opposition and based on what they've said about their plans my expectations for them are so low they're scraping along the pavement - there's no guarantees they'll keep winning big. It would only take Reform imploding, going the way of UKIP and the Brexit Party, for the Tories to make a comeback. I'd rather the opposition wasn't made up of far right weirdos normalising far right shit waiting to sweep into power if Labour fall on their face in the coming years.

 

[Serge Forward]

editor can this be mergered with t'other one please.

 

[Karl Masks]

If Braverman wins, will she seek an alliance with Refuk?

 

[Pickman's model]

editor can this be mergered with t'other one please.

The way to do this isn't to tag an individual mod but report the op and ask for thread merge. That way they all see it

 

[Smokeandsteam]

There are no voters aged 16-17.

There will be next time. And the 16-17 year olds who support populist right politics now will also be voters then.

By all means do continue to ignore the warning lights flashing everywhere though.

 

[Jennaonthebeach]

Hunt has ruled himself out already, apparently.

 

[moochedit]

There are no voters aged 16-17.

Yes but todays 16-17 year olds will be old enough by next election. (How many of them use their vote is another matter)

 

[Yossarian]

Priti Patel
Suella Braverman
Boris Johnson
Skeletor
Some twat I've never heard of before who looks like a serial killer
Some twat I've never heard of before who really is a serial killer
Andrew Tate
Norman Tebbit

 

[Jennaonthebeach]

Boris Johnson is never going to go away is he?

 

[moochedit]

Skeletor
Norman Tebbit

You put one twice there

 

[moochedit]

Has anyone checked thatchers grave recently to make sure she hasn't risen?

 

[brogdale]

Has anyone yet seen any analysis of how the electoral cull proportionally affected the “5 families”? If more of the survivors are “one nation” tories, then Tugdenhart would look like an obvious runner, but if more of them are total headbangers, I suppose one of the obvious psychopaths would triumph. All about the selectorate, innit?