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Tory Leadership contest 2022

Economics is so much more interesting than people would like it to be.
Someone with an economics phd who i asked about Sunak's claim that tax cuts = inevitable inflation said this;
"either you can make a model that looks like reality, but it's so complicated that you can't learn anything from it, or you can make a model that's simple enough to learn from, but then it doesn't behave like reality".
I think mostly we choose simple, not caring about how it maps onto reality.
 
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BBC has this freeze frame of Truss on their frontpage ATM.
I can see some Munch photoshops appearing soon.
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"BRIAN NO!"
 
Economics is so much more interesting than people would like it to be.
Someone with an economics phd who i asked about Sunak's claim that tax cuts = inevitable inflation said this;
"either you can make a model that looks like reality, but it's so complicated that you can't learn anything from it, or you can make a model that's simple enough to learn from, but then it doesn't behave like reality".
I think mostly we choose simple, not caring about how it maps onto reality.
So basically he has a PHD in a meaningless subject.
 
Workers get to raise the price of their labour in various circumstances.

But, aside from freelance management consultants and other people who don't count as workers because they don't do any work, can they unilaterally raise their own pay from one day to the next, the way a capitalist can unilaterally raise prices from one day to the next? No. If they fight tooth and nail, alongside lots of other workers and a decent union, for months or years then they might just claw their way up to parity with the rate of inflation.
 
But, aside from freelance management consultants and other people who don't count as workers because they don't do any work, can they unilaterally raise their own pay from one day to the next, the way a capitalist can unilaterally raise prices from one day to the next? No. If they fight tooth and nail, alongside lots of other workers and a decent union, for months or years then they might just claw their way up to parity with the rate of inflation.
Firstly, a self employed plumber (for example) can raise their prices in a period of high demand.

Secondly, I don't see how a capitalist can "unilaterally" raise prices from one day to the next because if they raise them too high no-one will pay them, unless they are in the special position of having a monopoly.

But if we can agree that either of those two can raise their prices to some extent in certain circumstances I don't see why it's only plausible that the capitalist's price rises could have some impact on inflation.
 
its not long winded! it just says we do not know, if you want a simple story pick one but don't expect it to reflect reality.

So his discipline is incapable of producing testable predictions.

At least the tarot card woman at the funfair pretends to have a legitimate method of generating useful information. But these economics clowns are openly admitting that they're just sticking pins in the phone book.
 
its not long winded! it just says we do not know, economics is complicated, if you want a simple story pick one and enjoy it but don't expect it to reflect reality, that's all.
There's pretty much a whole field of study which is about trying to understand complicated systems via simplified models, because it simply isn't possible to model them in full. Naturally it involves fully understanding the limits of the models you do have and making judgements about the extent of their reliability when drawing conclusions from them. It's not like simplified or incomplete models are necessarily useless.
 
Yes. But are the potato farmers who may be banned from watering their crops next month capitalists and therefore baddies, and so we dont care about their potatoes, or not. I care about their potatoes.
 
Love that they actually apparently have to get someone to validate i.e. cross reference with members list. Rather than just having the backend do a database lookup. pfft.
 
Economics is so much more interesting than people would like it to be.
Someone with an economics phd who i asked about Sunak's claim that tax cuts = inevitable inflation said this;
"either you can make a model that looks like reality, but it's so complicated that you can't learn anything from it, or you can make a model that's simple enough to learn from, but then it doesn't behave like reality".
I think mostly we choose simple, not caring about how it maps onto reality.

I think economics has more in common with religion than science. Other than on the most basic self evident transactional trueisms. i.e. you have potatoes I'm hungry and have gold.
 
Secondly, I don't see how a capitalist can "unilaterally" raise prices from one day to the next because if they raise them too high no-one will pay them, unless they are in the special position of having a monopoly.

My mate has been boycotting food on account of the price hikes. Dunno how he's getting on with it though, because he's gone a bit quiet lately for some reason.
 
I think economics has more in common with religion than science. Other than on the most basic self evident transactional trueisms. i.e. you have potatoes I'm hungry and have gold.

'Our economic models are so complicated you wouldn't understand them' does sound a lot like, 'god's will is ineffable, shut up and pay your tithe peasant'.
 
I think economics has more in common with religion than science. Other than on the most basic self evident transactional trueisms. i.e. you have potatoes I'm hungry and have gold.
absolutely, it seems to be at least 3/4s about the psychological issues of the human animal observed in large numbers. The stock exchange loved trump, for instance, and people buy NFTs instead of tinned mackerel, its not any kind of science it belongs in a prefab bolted onto the anthropology department if anywhere.
 
It's just a shame it's venerated so and we all have to make sacrifices and get dragged to church.

Even the mere suggestion of a slightly different scriptual interpretation gets you labelled as a dangerous radicle by the priesthood.
 
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