Tory Leadership contest 2022

[beesonthewhatnow]

Yeah it’s weird. I’ve been wanting with glee to see his downfall for about two decades now, but the accelerationist in me is loving how toxic he’s become for the Tory brand. My hunch is he’s for the chop tho

I’d rather see him fail by losing an 80 seat majority than a knife in the back.

 

[ouirdeaux]

I feel like the world is totally insane this morning.

I've had that feeling since the Brexit vote. The election of Trump, and then Johnson, and then the responses to Covid have only strengthened this impression.

 

[Pickman's model]

Will anyone do a John Major and come from relative obscurity to win the next election against the odds, keeping the Tories in power until 2028?

what, the john major who had held the junior posts of chancellor of the exchequer and foreign secretary?

 

[Pickman's model]

I don't see him winning. You heard it here first.

we'll see, and if he wins you'll never be allowed to forget it

 

[Pickman's model]

I think I want Johnson to scrape through, with the ensuing mess making the tories more toxic by the day.

yeh 52/48 split would be grand

 

[existentialist]

"I hear you're casting the ballot for <absent colleague>. Here's a big sack of cash/cushy cabinet job/we won't release the photos* if you vote the right way."

I'm only messing btw, I know there will be some heavy leaning on MPs today but I don't think actual foul play.

*delete as appropriate

I'm less optimistic than you. I think "they" (whoever "they" are) will be doing some pretty unrestricted armtwisting and worse to get the outcome they want.

 

[Kaka Tim]

I'm pretty confident he'll win it tonight.

why? all the lobby hacks are going with "too close to call".

My feeling is that he will be out. Otherwise it will just drag on and on - they may well have wanted it at another time and with a viable replacement ready to go - but they are where they are. And its not a given that he can rely on the payroll either - its a secret ballot.

 

[Raheem]

what, the john major who had held the junior posts of chancellor of the exchequer and foreign secretary?

Tbf, there was something about him that made him seem like an obscure figure even when he was pm.

 

[bluescreen]

It's a fresh hell every time someone mentions a new name, isn't it?

Yup.
La Truss has clearly been practising in front of the mirror for years, and she must have been taking elocution lessons because she's starting to curb her uptalk.
She might be popular with the members - I have no idea, I don't think I know any Tory members - but will she get that far?

Jesse Norman's letter shows that Johnson dangled the prospect of running a ministry in front of him when he quit his Treasury post last year. The Old Etonian's alleged reasons for quitting are set out in this Torygraph article and perhaps look a bit clearer in retrospect.
Paywall busted:

Jesse Norman quit the Treasury over Boris Johnson’s bid for more diversity​

Norman is married to Kate Bingham.

 

[platinumsage]

Long-term career chances are slight - the Tories aren't going to win the next election - so another 2 years and a bit of government (if he doesn't call an early election) and then hoping for some corporate shillings afterwards - new boss, new broom .

A lot of those “on the payroll” aren’t actually getting paid anything extra, and plenty of them will fancy their chances of a more senior role under a new PM. Far better to lose the next election having been in cabinet for two years than simply having carried on in an existing minor role.

 

[Kaka Tim]

If he goes I can see his replacement as being someone from outside the cabinet - the whole "new broom" impetus will be strong. And I cant see the likes of nadine dorris, rees mogg and patel surviving under a new leader.

 

[marty21]

Must admit , I love a Tory war there seems to be a narrative that it's revenge for Brexit , which doesn't make sense , given he won the election on the back of the red wall vote and most, if not all, of those red wall MPs were pro brexit , plus a load of "remoaner" Tories weren't selected .

 

[skyscraper101]

why? all the lobby hacks are going with "too close to call".

My feeling is that he will be out. Otherwise it will just drag on and on - they may well have wanted it at another time and with a viable replacement ready to go - but they are where they are. And its not a given that he can rely on the payroll either - its a secret ballot.

The list of openly supporting quotes by tory MPs John Stevens at the daily mail is doing on twitter suggests he still has the backing of the majority.

I mean sure I could be wrong - it's a secret ballot an all, but it would be in keeping with how totally out of touch the conservatives are.

 

[marty21]

A lot of those “on the payroll” aren’t actually getting paid anything extra, and plenty of them will fancy their chances of a more senior role under a new PM. Far better to lose the next election having been in cabinet for two years than simply having carried on in an existing minor role.

Gamble either way really , they don't know who will take over.

 

[platinumsage]

Gamble either way really , they don't know who will take over.

They've already banked their existing job titles on their CVs, so there's nothing to lose really.

 

[AverageJoe]

He'll walk it. All the Tory MPs are interested in is keeping their jobs. The ones that triggered the vote might leave, or more interestingly set up a new party/join other parties, but at the end of the day noone who is employed by the government is going to vote against their paymaster.

Boris will use this to draw a line under everything that's happened over the last two years. No more enquiries into "trivial" matters, just "now let's look forward..."

Which is depressing.

Also, bookies odds on him surviving are 1/4 on. Bookies are rarely wrong.

 

[Supine]

I do hope Nadine throws her hat in the ring

 

[Kaka Tim]

Tory MPs have been told that if they take a picture of their ballot paper their vote will be invalid, ITV’s Anushka Asthana reports. Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the Conservative 1922 Committee, has stressed this to ensure that MPs do not come under pressure from No 10 to produce evidence that they actually did vote for Boris Johnson.


New- just seen an interesting email to MPs from Sir Graham Brady- who is running tonight’s confidence vote as chair of the 1922 committee. A big warning about it being confidential- and no pics of ballot papers to be taken or vote void pic.twitter.com/YuAz2lFVlY
— Anushka Asthana (@AnushkaAsthana) June 6, 2022
In the past Tory prime ministers have often found that the number of MPs saying they will support them in a leadership contest, or a no confidence ballot, is not the same as the number who actually do.

interesting intervention.

 

[Sasaferrato]

He will survive.

Mainly because there is no obvious replacement, anywhere in the house.

 

[Pickman's model]

Winning but hit below the waterline, slowly taking on water and at reduced power. Scuttled at sea is my prediction.

And hopefully the metaphor is borne out by events too

tory prime minister go fuck yourself

 

[MickiQ]

I've absolutely no idea who will replace him if he goes. Sunak's star after months of unstoppable climbing has suddenly sunk like the Titanic so I imagine it will be someone I've probably never heard of.
I still err on the side of he'll survive. They've still got two and a half years before the next election so still time to turf him out next year and get someone new in place.
I have to admit it will be good if he does lose. He is such a smug entitled cunt that his ego may not be able to handle it.

 

[Nine Bob Note]

I do hope Nadine throws her hat in the ring

Doris couldn’t be reached for comment as she’s out buying a new hat

 

[Supine]

Doris couldn’t be reached for comment as she’s out buying a new hat

Dunces hat i’d expect

 

[BCBlues]

So if he wins the rules are that we are all stuck with him for another year, but, the rules can be changed.
Be hilarious if they did change them, Johnson style, so that there is another vote next week and every week thereafter until he runs from the building, on fire, screaming.

 

[kebabking]

He will survive.

Mainly because there is no obvious replacement, anywhere in the house.

Rubbish.

A central tenet of Johnson's political strategy is 'they're all the same', as a method of blunting any desire for change. to fall for it means accepting that all politicians are as venal, greedy, disorganised, dishonest, un-motivated by a political philosophy - and that most importantly, if everyone is equally bad, Johnson may as well stay there.

Your problem is that you cast your disillusionment with the Tories as a disillusionment with all politicians and all politics - you find it easier to say 'they're all shit, and all as bad as each other', than to accept that you held on to something that was rotten far longer than you should have.

I doubt there are more than a dozen MP's who are more corrupt, more indolent, more self-obsessed than Johnson, and perhaps another two dozen as corrupt, indolent and self-obsessed than him. That leaves 600+: 300 or so might be clinically stupid/headbangers, with perhaps 300 left as relatively normal, reasonably sentient, and with higher moral standards than Johnson.

A dozen+ leap out, but there are probably 200+ who would make a better job of it.

 

[Rob Ray]

This time in 2023, in a bid to distract everyone from his latest faux pas in which he drunkenly flattened a homeless person with a steam roller outside Downing Street while shouting "death to the poors, you can quote me on that," Bojo announces he will be invading Australia to avenge the republican snub to Queen Elizabeth. The British public, now thoroughly used to this sort of thing, shrug vaguely while donning their pith helmets, as mandated by the Re-enactment Bill 2022.

 

[marty21]

interesting intervention.

I suspect there are a lot of Boris' staff who are bricking it - once he goes, they are soiled goods

 

[not a trot]

I do hope Nadine throws her hat in the ring

Prefer her to throw it under a bus, whilst still wearing it.

 

[andysays]

First significant move from a potential contender?

Jeremy Hunt: I will vote against Johnson

Former Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt, tipped as a possible leadership contender, has said he will be voting "for change" in this evening's ballot.

Hunt says he wanted to avoid a confidence vote during the Ukraine war, but the party must now decide its future. "Having been trusted with power, Conservative MPs know in our hearts we are not giving the British people the leadership they deserve," he says.

"We are not offering the integrity, competence and vision necessary to unleash the enormous potential of our country. And because we are no longer trusted by the electorate, who know this too, we are set to lose the next general election."

 

[marty21]

First significant move from a potential contender?

Jeremy Hunt: I will vote against Johnson

Safe to make an announcement now - he isn't the one who prompted the vote (although I'd guess he did send in a letter) . Bit of a risk too - could swing some votes from Boris out to , fuck not Hunt, I'll keep Boris.