Tory Leadership contest 2022

[contadino]

I can't predict who the m.p.'s will vote for, but I reckon that the Tory rank and file don't like taxes very much. If Sunak were to be standing against anyone else who was white then their innate prejudices will make them vote against him, using his record on taxes as the excuse. If there were two non-white candidates then who knows? Or am I being unfair on members of the Tory party?

I'm not sure you can be unfair to a Tory. They deserve any shit you can lay on them.

 

[platinumsage]

I can't predict who the m.p.'s will vote for, but I reckon that the Tory rank and file don't like taxes very much. If Sunak were to be standing against anyone else who was white then their innate prejudices will make them vote against him, using his record on taxes as the excuse. If there were two non-white candidates then who knows? Or am I being unfair on members of the Tory party?

I think the membership would happily vote for Badenoch over Hunt for example, so I really think issues trump race. If they vote against Sunak it won’t be because he’s Asian, but because of his record as chancellor and his electoral chances against Starmer.

Tory members are by and large the people who shove leaflets through doors for local councillors, they’re electorally engaged and aren’t the same group as those red-faced people who sit at home posting in the DailyMail comments section.

 

[killer b]

If they vote against Sunak it won’t be because he’s Asian, but because of his record as chancellor and his electoral chances against Starmer.

the idea that the membership will vote based on the candidate's electoral chances is pretty funny

 

[bimble]

Doesn’t make much sense does it, the idea that sunak looses support amongst members for the revelation that his family pays as little tax as legally possible. I’m not convinced they really see that as a morally bad thing why would they.

 

[platinumsage]

The mp’s vote is 100% irrelevant when it comes to the members’ vote. IDS stood against Clarke and portaloo, splitting the votes almost equally. The members then went 2-1 eurosceptic, as they nearly always had. The exception was Cameron, possibly cos they were sick of losing.

I would say it's very relevant, and explains why Cameron trounced the more Eurosceptic Davis.

In the final MP's round Cameron got 90 and Davis got 57, members mimicked this with 66% to Cameron and 34% to Davis.

Again in 2019 Johnson got 160 to Hunt's 77, and members fell in line with 66% to Johnson and 34% to Hunt.

Not a big sample size but I reckon if there's a similar margin in the last two this time, members will broadly follow it.

It gets more complicated if it's a close result like 2001 but I don't think it will be.

 

[platinumsage]

the idea that the membership will vote based on the candidate's electoral chances is pretty funny

No, I think it's just members' views of electoral chances differ from yours.

 

[maomao]

Tory members are by and large the people who shove leaflets through doors for local councillors,

Aren't a lot of Tory party members in the party just for the cheap beer at Conservative clubs? Or does that work differently?

 

[maomao]

the idea that the membership will vote based on the candidate's electoral chances is pretty funny

It's what the Labour membership were persuaded to do.

 

[belboid]

I would say it's very relevant, and explains why Cameron trounced the more Eurosceptic Davis.

In the final MP's round Cameron got 90 and Davis got 57, members mimicked this with 66% to Cameron and 34% to Davis.

Again in 2019 Johnson got 160 to Hunt's 77, and members fell in line with 66% to Johnson and 34% to Hunt.

Not a big sample size but I reckon if there's a similar margin in the last two this time, members will broadly follow it.

It gets more complicated if it's a close result like 2001 but I don't think it will be.

Naah, other factors involved. And the fact that the mps votes are likely to be all over the shop makes it even less likely the members vote will replicate the mps’

 

[platinumsage]

Aren't a lot of Tory party members in the party just for the cheap beer at Conservative clubs? Or does that work differently?

I think club members get associate membership of the party, which doesn't confer voting rights unless they pay extra for full membership. Those that do are likely to be far more interested in a candidate's brexit/anti-wokeness/tax cutting credentials etc than the colour of their skin, hard as it may be to believe, although of course this doesn't mean that they can't also be racist.

 

[bimble]

She’s quite frightening. As in more evil less stupid. There are people who would get a real kick out of voting for a black woman who campaigns on an anti identity politics anti woke platform, And she’s getting lots of supportive press.

Why I should become prime minister

This is an edited transcript of Kemi Badenoch’s speech announcing her candidacy for the Conservative party leadership. It’s time to tell the truth. For too long, politicians have been telling us that we can have it all: have your cake and eat it. And I’m here to tell you that is not true. It...

www.spectator.co.uk

 

[elbows]

I see Patel has formally announced that she isnt standing.

 

[killer b]

It's what the Labour membership were persuaded to do.

at a different point in the electoral cycle though - what a membership can be persuaded into voting for after being thrashed in a general election is quite different to what a party sitting on an 80 seat majority can be persuaded to do.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Looks like sunak will make it to the members vote. His opponent is likely to be whoever the right/brexity part of the parliamentary party unite behind. The members will then vote for the candiate who is most right wing. Truss or mordant seem to be the frontrunners - but Badenoch could be the one to watch here. ERG Head honcho Steve baker and Gove have both backed her. Shes ruthless, smart and a total fucking loon. MAy have a better chance of beating starmer in a GE that the others. Fear her.

 

[killer b]

fwiw Opinium have done a poll of tory members and have Sunak in the lead against his two most likely rivals (truss & mordant) - strikingly different from the Conservative Home panel

 

[existentialist]

Looks like sunak will make it to the members vote. His opponent is likely to be whoever the right/brexity part of the parliamentary party unite behind. The members will then vote for the candiate who is most right wing. Truss or mordant seem to be the frontrunners - but Badenoch could be the one to watch here. ERG Head honcho Steve baker and Gove have both backed her. Shes ruthless, smart and a total fucking loon. MAy have a better chance of beating starmer in a GE that the others. Fear her.

I wonder whether the Tory party is really ready for someone of colour - and a WOMAN - as leader, just yet. Especially the loony right wing fringe.

 

[WhyLikeThis]

Gendered toilets and ice cream are clearly the most pressing topics in the minds of the tory faithful: ‘Ben & Jerry’s tendencies’ of woke businesses attacked by Kemi Badenoch - live updates

 

[MickiQ]

Kemi Badenoch, the Tory leadership candidate, has hit out at Ben & Jerry’s owner Unilever in an attack on companies that focus on “social justice” at the expense of profits.

Wow just wow let's just take a minute and think about that shall we?

 

[belboid]

I wonder whether the Tory party is really ready for someone of colour - and a WOMAN - as leader, just yet. Especially the loony right wing fringe.

Yes they are. They love to show how progressive they are.

 

[petee]

you weren't in the underwear section were you, with a group of priests?

 

[belboid]

Hunt has leapt ahead of Badenoch and Zahawi to get into the actual ballot (SCC to the guardian). Looks suspiciously like the very far right making sure the merely right take each out and deliver a straight Truss/Sunak fight.

 

[skyscraper101]

She’s quite frightening. As in more evil less stupid. There are people who would get a real kick out of voting for a black woman who campaigns on an anti identity politics anti woke platform, And she’s getting lots of supportive press.

Why I should become prime minister

This is an edited transcript of Kemi Badenoch’s speech announcing her candidacy for the Conservative party leadership. It’s time to tell the truth. For too long, politicians have been telling us that we can have it all: have your cake and eat it. And I’m here to tell you that is not true. It...

www.spectator.co.uk

For a laugh I took part in the telegraph poll on who you'd want to be the next leader. I was surprised to see she was out in front ahead of Sunak.

 

[chilango]

Badenoch is very interesting in a terrifying way. I can't see her winning, but she scares me the most.

 

[belboid]

Yay! Braverman claims she has the numbers now

 

[teqniq]

Frankly I hold all of them in varying degrees of complete contempt and loathing. None of them are who we really need to be in charge at this time and yet here we are.

 

[stdP]

I wonder whether the Tory party is really ready for someone of colour - and a WOMAN - as leader, just yet. Especially the loony right wing fringe.

Personally I agree with platinumsage's take that for a great many Tories, the idealogical issues really do trump things like race and gender. I know at least two true blues who would have no problem voting for a black woman, because she's the right kind of black woman. This seems unchanged since the Thatcher days.

Whether this extends to the party as a whole and their suitability for leadership remains to be seen.

 

[two sheds]

You're familiar with Father Ted, I'm assuming

 

[Smangus]

She’s quite frightening. As in more evil less stupid. There are people who would get a real kick out of voting for a black woman who campaigns on an anti identity politics anti woke platform, And she’s getting lots of supportive press.

Why I should become prime minister

This is an edited transcript of Kemi Badenoch’s speech announcing her candidacy for the Conservative party leadership. It’s time to tell the truth. For too long, politicians have been telling us that we can have it all: have your cake and eat it. And I’m here to tell you that is not true. It...

www.spectator.co.uk

The hypocrisy displayed in that article is breathtaking.

 

[bimble]

I wonder whether the Tory party is really ready for someone of colour - and a WOMAN - as leader, just yet. Especially the loony right wing fringe.

Have you seen what she actually says ? She says vote for me if you’re fed up of being called a racist sexist old bastard, I hate all that too, ignore the woke snowflakes who are bringing this great country down etc.
Those people will love her I think. She’s offering them absolution of a kind .

 

[maomao]

It's the traditionalists that might not swallow a black or brown leader. The loony right wingers are well up for it.