Tory lead cut to 6% in poll ..

[butchersapron]

Ipso-Mori have it down to 8% as well.

 

[ymu]

Tory lead back down to 7% according to a poll in The Daily Telegraph.

Good - we're firmly back in Hung Parliament territory.

Can't we just hang them now? I can't wait until May 6th ffs!

 

[London_Calling]

I saw some analysis the other day that suggested there is a strong trend in relation to the electorate liking Cameron but not the party, and the party but not Brown.

Hence the posters of Cameron alone, even if that has now rather misfired.

 

[JimPage]

And the de-facto taking out of the BNP threat at the General Election by the equalities commission will work in Labour`s favour as well

 

[shagnasty]

I feel the tories made the mistake of thinking people wanting them in, rather than nu labour out ,could go into the election with them almost neck and neck.i just got a feeling in my wee that will be the case.If people were honest i don,t think that they want any of them

 

[treelover]

Even if the polls are wrong, there will be some real fear and panic in Central Office,etc, even more so in the constituencies. I wonder how they will respond, possibly more of a focus on immigration, crime, but maybe also jobs. The hatchets will be out for Andy Coulson too, Camerons strategist.

 

[weltweit]

... If people were honest i don,t think that they want any of them

But isn't that often the way, people have to vote for who they least dislike?

 

[Ibn Khaldoun]

But isn't that often the way, people have to vote for who they least dislike?

They don't have to - most don't.

 

[ExtraRefined]

I don't think they'll be too worried

 

[ViolentPanda]

I saw some analysis the other day that suggested there is a strong trend in relation to the electorate liking Cameron but not the party, and the party but not Brown.

Hence the posters of Cameron alone, even if that has now rather misfired.

Slight understatement there, L_C!

 

[ExtraRefined]

Slight understatement there, L_C!

If you're referring to the poster generator & vandalism, I can assure you that's doing more good than bad. They're getting Cameron more exposure, which is all that matters, and make the other side look childish. Both were getting reposted on tory activist blogs last week.

 

[butchersapron]

Yeah?

"Cameron’s rating has gone down by 9%, and Brown’s has gone up 6%. A 7.5% swing in Brown’s favour"

I was also pleased to see MORI repeat their question on whether people like Brown and/or Labour, and whether they like Cameron and/or the Conservative party. This was last asked in summer 2008 when the Conservatives were enjoying a towering 20 point lead. Back then it showed Cameron was far more popular than the Conservatives (54% liked him, compared to 42% his party), but Brown was much less popular than Labour (29% liked him, 39% his party).

Now Gordon Brown’s likeability has increased to 35% (up 6), compared to Labour on 38% (down 1). Cameron’s likeability stands at 45% (down 9), his party 39% (down 3). Not surprisingly given the Conservative lead in the polls has gone from 20 points to 8, Brown is seen as more likeable and Cameron less so than in 2008. However, the shift really does seem to be in how the leaders are seen – how much people like the parties they lead has moved much less.

More from MORI’s monthly monitor

 

[butchersapron]

Oh yeah - BPIX poll for Mail on Sunday has lead down to 9% - the first time BPIX has had the tories under 40% for two years as well -and a loss of 14% points over the lat 18 months.

 

[ViolentPanda]

If you're referring to the poster generator & vandalism, I can assure you that's doing more good than bad. They're getting Cameron more exposure, which is all that matters, and make the other side look childish. Both were getting reposted on tory activist blogs last week.

No, I'm referring to the fact that many people I've spoken with, including convinced tories in areas all over the country, have remarked on the fact that the image and message don't come across as sincere. A sort of equating of "false face" with false promise" .
Given that the base demographic of consistent tory voters is mostly on the senior side of the age divide, making a promise about the NHS which isn't received as a sincere promise, even by tories, isn't helpful to the Conservative vote, regardless of what a handful of bloggers think.

 

[david dissadent]

These numbers explain Camerons flip flopping on cuts. Also the renewed attack on the British economy, last year it was Reykjavik on the Thames this years theme seems to be Athens on the Thames.

 

[agricola]

No, I'm referring to the fact that many people I've spoken with, including convinced tories in areas all over the country, have remarked on the fact that the image and message don't come across as sincere. A sort of equating of "false face" with false promise" .
Given that the base demographic of consistent tory voters is mostly on the senior side of the age divide, making a promise about the NHS which isn't received as a sincere promise, even by tories, isn't helpful to the Conservative vote, regardless of what a handful of bloggers think.

At a local level at least, Cameron and his ilk are by no means popular - CCHQ is doing to the Tories what Blair did to Labour, except this time the local party organizations know what he is doing, why he is doing it and where the situation will eventually lead, thanks to New Labour's example.

Add that to his (and the rest of the Cameroons) evident hero-worship of Blair (if you need an example, check out Iain Dale's love-in here; of course this is most definately not shared by most Tory voters I know), more than a few non-Tory policy proposals, and the hatred of the "political class" (to use Oborne's phrase) generally and you have the perfect conditions to ensure that he will be booted out should he not win the next election by a sufficiently large amount.

As you mentioned bloggers, its worth noting that over the last week (and indeed for some time before, though it was especially noticeable last week) Guido has been openly attacking the Cameroon element.

These numbers explain Camerons flip flopping on cuts. Also the renewed attack on the British economy, last year it was Reykjavik on the Thames this years theme seems to be Athens on the Thames.

This latest flipflop will come back to haunt him - there are billions of pounds worth of cuts that could (and indeed need to) be brought in very quickly (ID cards, freezing/cancelling PFI deals, banning external consultancies, wiping out the quangocrats) and which would probably have a beneficial effect on the economy.

 

[London_Calling]

"Cameron’s rating has gone down by 9%, and Brown’s has gone up 6%. A 7.5% swing in Brown’s favour"

More from MORI’s monthly monitor

If it's accurate it obviously makes the timing of the poster campaign about as bad as possible. The Etonians were certainly reading from a different set of numbers.

 

[Sgt Howie]

Worth bearing in mind that the swing to the Tories is likely to be greater in marginal seats. The idea that a Tory lead of 6% means a hung parliament is fallacious - it depends on the distribution of the vote. Bob Worcester of Mori has said it's possible that they could become the largest party on a nationwide 3% swing depending on what the marginals do.

There does seem to be clear evidence of movement back to Labour (or at least away from the Conservatives) however, I wonder to what extent the core Labour / "payroll" public sector vote has already made up its mind about the Tories and come back - expect to see Mandelson/Brown et al concentrating their fire on Cameron's soft underbelly in Kent, west mids etc.

 

[goldenecitrone]

I think Labour's vote will go up in an election as so many people are disillusioned but just couldn't bear to have a Tory government.

 

[belboid]

most reports say the tories are doing worse in the marginals

 

[butchersapron]

Worth bearing in mind that the swing to the Tories is likely to be greater in marginal seats.<snip>

On what reasoning/evidence?

 

[ExtraRefined]

Yeah?

"Cameron’s rating has gone down by 9%, and Brown’s has gone up 6%. A 7.5% swing in Brown’s favour"



More from MORI’s monthly monitor

The 18 month gap between those polls makes them useless for the purposes of linking the change to a single event

 

[butchersapron]

They make them more useful than your rah rah though as part of downward trend in little davy's popularity - in which fuck ups like this can and do play a role.

 

[Sgt Howie]

On what reasoning/evidence?

ICM/NoW poll on Jan 23 showed a 8.5% swing to the Tories in the marginals - would tally with the larger-than-average swing to Labour in similar seats in 92/97. I'll hold my hands up if anyone's got any figures that contradict this - as I say, there is clearly movement across the board back to Labour. My point is that the topline figures only tell us so much.

http://blogs.notw.co.uk/politics/2010/01/victory.html

 

[belboid]

I recomend reading articles before linking to them:

"The Tories are hoping they’ll do better in these marginals than in the country as a whole. However, this poll says they’re doing the same as elsewhere in the country."

 

[butchersapron]

On which i agree, no probs, it's that you said you expect a larger swing in marginals - why? The fact they're marginals means they're not tied to anything.

 

[articul8]

Given the concentration of Ashcroft money in the marginals, they are hoping that their cash will buy greater influence there

 

[Sgt Howie]

On which i agree, no probs, it's that you said you expect a larger swing in marginals - why? The fact they're marginals means they're not tied to anything.

Because of what happened in 92 and 97 - and, as articul8 says, because the Cons are chucking extra Ashcroft at them. Although of course neither of these necessarily mean anything: I'm just trying to offer a counterweight to the even less reliable stuff you read about how a x% swing equals a majority of y.

 

[kabbes]

Theoretically speaking, are marginal constituencies are not more likely to be subject to "reversion to the mean" than more extreme constituencies? So more likely to swing back from a position in which they got an unusually high Labour vote in the last few elections?

I'm not convinced about my own theory, to be perfectly honest.

 

[sabatical]

A ''noose and gallows'' election: so the Chilcot enquiry has had some use after all, No trial in the courts as yet, but that doesn't mean the electorate can't have one in the ballot box.
They'll enjoy it, a break in the dark clouds suspended over the country, they'll enjoy giving all of them a good kicking, a ray of sunshine falling on the electors and lots of ''water'' on the candidates.

The two party system, is now three parties, but the general trend in elections goes back to the 1800's, Conservative and Liberal, prior to then the Whigs and Tories weren't constituted in the same way as parties have been since the 1830's. The last hundred years also saw the Conservatives and Labour as the two main rivals, with the Liberal wandering behind.

But that of course was all established during the ''open' period of the British Empire, now people have been told it no longer exists. If that is so then why should the election and voting patterns remain the same ?

Time comes when the mold is broken.
People are still using the old methods of analysis, why ?

The 'Old Labour party'' is dead and gone since 1997, it took some time for it to be realised, mostly because of them mass of propaganda by the fake lefties, all of whom were in fact supporters of the 'British New labour Party' [B.N.L.P.] along with the full support of the Conservatives and Lib Dems.
There was a time, if a large turn out Labour did well, and if a small trurn out conservatives did well, but it's all changed.

The bigger the turn out, the more B.N.L.P. constituencies will be lost, it's not going to be ''who do you favour', so much as 'get them out'.....