Tory lead cut to 6% in poll ..

[ovaltina]

historians might identify the relish with which Osborne et al talked about cuts (not least with regards to public sector jobs) at this year's Conservative conference as a turning point.

I've barely seen Osborne since the conference. Have they stuffed him in a cupboard somewhere?

Brown's now pushing ahead with shamelessly populist policies, like suspending the NHS it system upgrade and going after public sector 'fat cats'.

He hasn't scrapped ID cards yet but I wouldn't put it past him. If only he'd look at putting the railways back into public ownership.

 

[JimPage]

Populous' monthly poll for The Times has the tory lead down to 8%.

Anything less than a 10% lead, broadly,means a hung parliament

With AV for all future elections- and a broad liberal-left majority in Britain- than woudl mean no more tories for the forseeable future

 

[ericjarvis]

with a giant douche on one side and a shit sandwich on the other.

Not to mention the other bloke. Which is probably best since he's the most forgettable party leader of all time.

 

[ericjarvis]

what they ought to do is to get cameron and the other party leaders, put them in a tv studio and hang them. the one who does the tyburn jig longest, their party wins.

that way there'd be a damn sight few people queuing up to be politicians

Best suggestion I've read in ages.

 

[ovaltina]

Today's odds at William Hill (I'd trust the bookies over the pollsters):

Next General Election ResultSelection Odds
Conservative Majority 2/5
No Overall 9/4
Labour Majority 11/1

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/EN/search/?sCriteria=election

 

[butchersapron]

The bookies follow where the money leads though, it doesn't mean they think it'smore lilley the tories will win a majority - just that there's more money being bet on that happening.

 

[A Dashing Blade]

The bookies follow where the money leads though . . .

But also keep the leading pollsters on a monthly retainer for private interpretations of the polls as they are released . . . aledgedly.

 

[ericjarvis]

Today's odds at William Hill (I'd trust the bookies over the pollsters):

Next General Election ResultSelection Odds
Conservative Majority 2/5
No Overall 9/4
Labour Majority 11/1

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/EN/search/?sCriteria=election

Why would the bookies be more reliable? They aren't attempting to predict anything, they simply set the odds according to what bets have been made. All that tells you is that a majority of gamblers are betting on the Tories.

 

[ericjarvis]

But also keep the leading pollsters on a monthly retainer for private interpretations of the polls as they are released . . . aledgedly.

Why would they do that. There's no point.

 

[King Biscuit Time]

All that tells you is that a majority of gamblers are betting on the Tories.

The majority of the *money* is going on the Tories, more like.

 

[belboid]

Why would they do that. There's no point.

to minimise their losses/maximise winnings. They don't just set odds according to how the betting is going. They use every bit of information available, including what the actual result is likely to be!

 

[Kaka Tim]

Thinking about it, the tories really should be doing far far better -

labour have been in power for over 10 years and the economy has been trashed on their watch. Throw in the cumalative effects of various scandals and cock ups and the small matter of Blair's war lies. Unemployment is over 2 million and climbing. Brown acting like a beaten boxer staggering around the ring - and hes really quite shit at the media warmth thing. And much of the press have been going at him and the govt hammer and tounges. Negative personal ratings for brown, most people sick of the government and see them as incompetant, petty minded, corrupt and bereft of direction.

Meanwhile the tories have done a credible reninvention on the social liberal front (hi! I'm dave and I'm cool with blacks and gays) and have a new, youthful, articulate leader whose been giving a pretty easy ride and positive press over the past year of so. In addition the media has been pretty much treating them as a shoe-in and taking them seriously for the first time in a decade.

However, whilst labour stuggling in the polls, the tories cant get above 40% when they have everything going for them. I'd be pretty worried if I was Cameron. Whats going on? People having more sense and longer memories then they are generally given credit them for?

 

[butchersapron]

YouGov show 9 point Tory lead

There is a new YouGov poll in the Sun tomorrow [today, thursday]. I haven’t seen the full details of it yet, only the topline figures on Sky News, but they are CON 40%(nc), LAB 31%(+1), LDEM 17%(nc)

 

[trevhagl]

It doesn't need to be that significant. I'm praying for a hung parliament that leads to a lib-lab coalition. If there is a god, he will not let that shiny faced eton prick get the keys to number 10

me too, it's a shocking state of affairs when that's the best outcome, but it IS...

 

[trevhagl]

I just don't understand polls at all. true Labour have been a disgrace but when you consider how many very rich people there are in this country, there surely can be no more than 10percent so where are the other 30percent coming from to propose voting Tory? Are there that many thick people?

 

[weltweit]

I just don't understand polls at all. true Labour have been a disgrace but when you consider how many very rich people there are in this country, there surely can be no more than 10percent so where are the other 30percent coming from to propose voting Tory? Are there that many thick people?

Don't forget Trev that the tories are known as a low tax / small government party which certainly cannot be said of New Labour who are the high tax big government party.

As a low tax party the tories are attractive to many middle and working class people.

 

[ericjarvis]

I just don't understand polls at all. true Labour have been a disgrace but when you consider how many very rich people there are in this country, there surely can be no more than 10percent so where are the other 30percent coming from to propose voting Tory? Are there that many thick people?

Yes.

 

[Lo Siento.]

anyone notice Mandelson going on about how Labour's only chance of victory is appealing to the same constituencies (ie. middle class swing voters) as in the last 2 elections? Has he got a point? Is the triangulation thing now basically fucked by the erosion of Labour's base over the last 10 years?

 

[embree]

YouGov show 9 point Tory lead

very slow creepback of Labour voters. Doesn't have to be that many either to see a hung parliament from here on

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

15% "other" with no commentary because we are way too thick to understand more than 3 parties. Even more than 2 is a stretch for our poor brains.

Over 2/3 who stated a preference back parties whose policies got us into £880,000,000,000 and who led us into a disasterous criminal war. The result is a sideshow, the country will get what they deserve: Appalling right wing government.

 

[butchersapron]

Who are way too thick etc rant £880,000,000,000 etc

 

[Streathamite]

Why would they do that. There's no point.

to let em know how much they need to 'lay off'?

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

Who are way too thick etc rant £880,000,000,000 etc

Being patronised by a media that only engages in phony debates is a problem.

£880bn of debt from right wing policies is an even bigger problem.

I don't expect any of them to be dealt with in the farce that follows between now and May, but I dont see why it would bother you that I raise them.

 

[Balbi]

What's the left wing solution to the debt taffboy?

 

[butchersapron]

Being patronised by a media that only engages in phony debates is a problem.

£880bn of debt from right wing policies is an even bigger problem.

I don't expect any of them to be dealt with in the farce that follows between now and May, but I dont see why it would bother you that I raise them.

But who the fuck are you talking about?

15% "other" with no commentary because we are way too thick to understand more than 3 parties. Even more than 2 is a stretch for our poor brains

Who has let you down by not saying what you want to hear?

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

But who the fuck are you talking about?



Who has let you down by not saying what you want to hear?

I'm talking about the mainstream media whose idea of "debate" is utterly sterile and misleading, and the 2 Conservative parties whose fraud and lies have landed us in the shit, and who can only rely on tribalism for the most significant difference between them. Sorry if it wasn't obvious.

 

[butchersapron]

So you're just making a generic point totally unconnected the new poll or the linked report of it?

Maybe we could get a thread just for you to repeat this ranty stuff over and over? It does seem to pop up in thread after thread.

 

[Streathamite]

Over 2/3 who stated a preference back parties whose policies got us into £880,000,000,000

tbf, that ws prolly the only possible response - other than accepting 1929 mk II - to the banks' fuckup

 

[taffboy gwyrdd]

tbf, that ws prolly the only possible response - other than accepting 1929 mk II - to the banks' fuckup

The bank fuck up was facilitated by light touch regulation, a fundementalist mania for casino capitalism that has not abated to any meaningful degree.

The Conservative Parties all over the western world thought it was fantastic, then the dumbass mainstream media propagated that "no one saw it comming" (the crash)

Politicians allowed the system that let the banks screw up, they have not been remotely honest about it, we wouldnt expect that. The mainstream press have not indulged in meaningful scrutiny. The lies continue, the public have let it slide. While we let ourself be shat on and lied to we will be shat on and lied to.

Butchers - rants about mainstream politics are likely to turn up on threads about mainstream politics, like those related to the latest polls.

 

[shagnasty]

i believe there is no such thing as did not see it coming i believe they just didn,t read the signs