Tory lead cut to 6% in poll ..

[Wills]

The Tories have always had a larger "hardcore" base than Labour, I don't think the Tory vote has ever been less than 36% in any General Election ever..so taking that into account even a Tory vote of 39% would get them a majority to form a Government.
a lot depends on the Lib-dem vote.. a high percentage of like 20% would help the Tories simply because it does not mean more seats for the Liberals.. it usaully means less for Labour.

 

[ericjarvis]

they most likely hate the tories too

Nail on the head. Like many I hate the Tories whatever party they are in.

 

[N_igma]

The British are fickle. The Tories are a dead cert!

 

[ymu]

The British are fickle. The Tories are a dead cert!

Nah. They need a lead of at least 10% to form a majority government. Hung parliament is at least as likely as a Tory victory. The anointing of the next government happened in the press, when their lead was well into double figures.

It's looking like 1992 all over again. Not technically hung, but it might as well have been.

 

[N_igma]

It's looking like 1992 all over again. Not technically hung, but it might as well have been.

The Tories have at least some credibility amoung the general populace, a lot more than Labour had with Kinnock in 92. Add that with The Sun backing them then will the last person to leave Britain turn out the lights if Brown wins?

 

[ymu]

They have George Osbourne though. Zero credibility, in rather a critical post.

Brown won't win. Labour won't win. It's quite likely none of them will win - but then we never do whatever the outcome, so who cares?

 

[Wills]

The Tories have at least some credibility amoung the general populace, a lot more than Labour had with Kinnock in 92. Add that with The Sun backing them then will the last person to leave Britain turn out the lights if Brown wins?

very true.. but I don't think voters take much notice of what the Sun says these days.. but I hope you are wrong

 

[Kid_Eternity]

Well according to the Observer, 5 out of 7 polls this month have had the Tories below 40%.

That doesn't really tell you much if it's not reflected by other polls by other papers and other pollsters...

 

[embree]

The Tories have always had a larger "hardcore" base than Labour, I don't think the Tory vote has ever been less than 36% in any General Election ever..so taking that into account even a Tory vote of 39% would get them a majority to form a Government.
a lot depends on the Lib-dem vote.. a high percentage of like 20% would help the Tories simply because it does not mean more seats for the Liberals.. it usaully means less for Labour.

A Tory vote of 39% would leave the whole thing on a knife edge.

 

[butchersapron]

Interesting commentary on the figures from UK Polling Report. Most importantly:

More interestingly there was an increase in the likelihood of people who voted Labour in 2005 to vote Labour now – in October 65% of former Labour voters said they would back the party this time, this month 72% of Labour’s 2005 voters said they would back the party.

Putting those poll figures in their swingometer gives

Conservative - 288 seats (+90)
Labour - 286 seats (-70)
Liberal Democrats - 45 seats (-17)
Others 15% - 13 seats (+1)
Northern Ireland - 18 seats (nc)

Hung Parliament, Conservatives 38 seats short

(i.e this is if there was a uniform swing across the country)

 

[goldenecitrone]

People may have taken a shine to Cameron, but they are repulsed by the likes of Osbourne, Hague and all the other grasping scumbags on the Tory front bench. I think the idea of a Tory landslide is very unappealing to most people, especially with their proposals to cut public services whilst slashing taxes for the rich.

 

[moon23]

There are many months to go yet, the thought of another term of Labour bringing in ID cards removing our last remaining civil liberties and continue with their controlling style of government that disempowering people is not good. Then again having the Eton boys in power would be a fucking disaster. Maybe a hung government is going to be the best thing if it leads to some Lib Dems being brought into government in return for PR.

 

[Rod Sleeves]

(i.e this is if there was a uniform swing across the country)

This is really important - there isn't going to be a uniform swing, for instance all the evidence I can see in the North East is a drop in votes for Labour, a small rise for the Libdems, a slightly larger rise for the BNP (though not as much as they should be getting really) and no real rise for the Tories, and a large rise for the Stay at Home Party.

In the South East however for example I think we can clearly see a big swing from Labour to Tories.

I think we need to look at the regional pictures.

 

[butchersapron]

You need this then.

 

[Stoat Boy]

I think I would rather see a Labour(spit) win than a hung parliament that allows the Lib Dems anywhere near having a say in anything.

 

[ericjarvis]

I think I would rather see a Labour(spit) win than a hung parliament that allows the Lib Dems anywhere near having a say in anything.

Why so half ass about it? Are you a closet Lib Dem? Me, I would rather have my testicles removed by sandblasting than see the Lib Dems having a say in anything.

 

[MikeMcc]

Way too early to really say what's going to happen. None of the parties have really started sprouting off about what they intend to stand for, just what they think the other parties are going to stand for. I can see this being the most negative campaign ever.

 

[embree]

Interesting commentary on the figures from UK Polling Report. Most importantly:



Putting those poll figures in their swingometer gives

Conservative - 288 seats (+90)
Labour - 286 seats (-70)
Liberal Democrats - 45 seats (-17)
Others 15% - 13 seats (+1)
Northern Ireland - 18 seats (nc)

Hung Parliament, Conservatives 38 seats short

(i.e this is if there was a uniform swing across the country)

That's about it. Tories need one of the biggest swings in decades to win this one and gaining over 100 seats in one election is going to be very, very hard to do.

There's a possibility, should the polls narrow further, that we could be looking at projections of Labour finishing second in the popular vote and still being the biggest party. Gotta love FPTP eh.

 

[audiotech]

Not really. Politically the BNP and UKIP are poles apart. The BNP is essentially a socialist party, hardly something you could accuse UKIP of being.

They've fooled you too. The BNP think in terms of a market model based on the Japanese and Philippine economies, which are far from "socialist".

 

[trevhagl]

I reckon labour will win it again, there's too many people who hate the tories

they are their own worst enemy, if they just lied like the old days they mighta won it outright, but no, they couldn't help themselves, gloating about sacking 10percent of the public sector, bringing back foxhunting etc....

 

[trevhagl]

Not really. Politically the BNP and UKIP are poles apart. The BNP is essentially a socialist party, hardly something you could accuse UKIP of being.

 

[butchersapron]

North of the border YouGov shows Labour support rising in Scotland

The Telegraph has a new Scottish poll from YouGov. Looking at topline voting intentions first, Westminster support (with changes from way back in August) stand at CON 18%(-2), LAB 39%(+9), LDEM 12%(-6), SNP 24%(-2). As with the recent TNS-BMRB poll, it shows a real strengthening of Labour’s Westminster support in Scotland.

Comparing this to the last General election, Labour’s vote is unchanged, the Conservatives up just 2 points. The SNP are up by 6, the Lib Dems down by a crushing 11. On a uniform swing at a general election, that would result in the SNP gaining Ochil & South Perthshire from Labour, and Labour gaining Dunbartonshire East and Inverness,etc from the Lib Dems. The Conservatives wouldn’t gain anything.

 

[Kid_Eternity]

The polls are proving more volatile, maybe time to rethink my views on the out comes of the next General Election...

 

[Chris P Duck]

The Tories should have had this sewn up. But for a while now I've not been convinced they will get a majority.

The Tories have come out and said that the road back to recovery will be tough and that hard times will be ahead with tax rises and severe cutbacks in public spending. This maybe the best way out of this mess, however when it comes to the crunch, people are selfish and only interested in themselves.

Enough people will be put off voting Tory because they don't want top pay more tax that it might not be the landslide everyone expects.

Long time in politics to go yet. It's there for the Tories to lose and I think Davo may actually get found out to be so useless before the big day that he manages to blow it.

 

[Kid_Eternity]

The Tories should have had this sewn up. But for a while now I've not been convinced they will get a majority.

The Tories have come out and said that the road back to recovery will be tough and that hard times will be ahead with tax rises and severe cutbacks in public spending. This maybe the best way out of this mess, however when it comes to the crunch, people are selfish and only interested in themselves.

Enough people will be put off voting Tory because they don't want top pay more tax that it might not be the landslide everyone expects.

Long time in politics to go yet. It's there for the Tories to lose and I think Davo may actually get found out to be so useless before the big day that he manages to blow it.

Yep, the polling has never really convinced me of a landslide, I've been speculating on something like a 60 seat majority. The recent flux in polling makes me wonder if that will now be a great deal slimmer, and I wouldn't rule out a hung Parliament/minority Cameron government.

On a related note, Cameron's/Conservative polling isn't that strong despite 'good' numbers. When his child died earlier this year he wasn't in the news for about two weeks, in that time their poll numbers dropped sharply. The 'support' for the Tories is more centred around David Cameron and the high level of dislike with Brown/Labour than any actual support for a Conservative government/policy agenda as far as I can tell...

 

[Sgt Howie]

The Tories have always had a larger "hardcore" base than Labour,

Not true, in recent memory Labour have had a huge advantage over the Tories in terms of party identification (as opposed to voting intention). When Mori polled this in June 2008 (hardly a high watermark for the govenment) party identification was 31% Labour, 25% Tory, 19% Lb Dem - and that's as close as it's been this decade.

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemId=2380&view=wide

I can't see Labour winning a majority but there are vast numbers of people who are still extremely hostile to the Tories, even if they find Cameron convincing - historians might identify the relish with which Osborne et al talked about cuts (not least with regards to public sector jobs) at this year's Conservative conference as a turning point.

 

[London_Calling]

Very diff to get a 6% swing from left to right - I think I heard on the radio that it has historically never been done (the best was 5.7% in 1979).

You have to think this was, to an extent, a rogue poll but, nonetheless, polls always close as an election nears and voters concentration focuses. Def game on.

 

[treelover]

I pray for a hung parliament,even though it has many problems,eg, Smarmy Tory Boy Clegg maybe holding the balance of power.

 

[moon23]

I pray for a hung parliament,even though it has many problems,eg, Smarmy Tory Boy Clegg maybe holding the balance of power.

Yep the best possible outcome is that Lib Dems get PR as part of a deal to form a coalition. The worse is that Labour get re-elected with a workable majority. Then I think Labour with a minority or conservatives with a minority will be about the same.

 

[glenquagmire]

Labour with a small majority could mean the minority of socialists holding the balance of power.