Tory lead cut to 6% in poll ..

[JimPage]

Labour with a small majority could mean the minority of socialists holding the balance of power.

it would need to be a very narrow majority for this to happen. at best, there will be half a dozen greens/ socialists elected outside of labour- and allowing for the half a dozen- maybe- marxist labour MPs left that is not many

And whether Labour would submit to a socialist platform in order to remain in power is another question altogether

 

[belboid]

half a dozen left of labours? bollocks, one max

half a dozen marxist labourites??!! where on earth do you get that from?

 

[Rod Sleeves]

Dianne Abbott lol.

If it came down to half a dozen or even being very generous to the Labour left a dozen "leftwing" MPs holding the balance of power then Labour would look to the Libdems, DUP and anyone else they could get to get bills through. The left will not hold the balance of power.

 

[Kid_Eternity]

Labour with a small majority could mean the minority of socialists holding the balance of power.

What MPs do you have in mind that could hold the balance of power?

 

[JimPage]

half a dozen left of labours? bollocks, one max

half a dozen marxist labourites??!! where on earth do you get that from?

I am being very optimistic with half a dozen, 3 respect, 1 green, 1 or 2 independents given favourable conditions

I am putting down anyone involved in say the LRC as generally sound labour lefties

 

[glenquagmire]

Say a dozen left in the rump of the Campaign Group. Unlikely scenario though.

 

[embree]

Simple fact is, Tories need 40% bare minimum to win. Anything less than that and they are on dodgy ground. How many times have they polled over 40% lately?

Scotland looks like it's alive to the prospect of a Tory government and making its choice anyway...

 

[Rod Sleeves]

Simple fact is, Tories need 40% bare minimum to win. Anything less than that and they are on dodgy ground. How many times have they polled over 40% lately?
.

Yeah but can they get in with 50% in the Midlands, south, and parts of the north and Wales, and 35% elsewhere?

I dunno - I'm asking a question btw. I do agree that a Tory victory is not cut and dried.

 

[elbows]

From talking to people at work, there is certainly more hatred of Labour & its failings than there is any real love of the Tories. Some of the people whose instincts lean towards the Tory way seem to be having trouble summoning up the belief that it will make much difference, and I think there is some concern that Cameron & his team are lightweights.

Having said that, lots of people will probably still take what they feel is the only realistic prospect for change and will vote Tory come the day. There is also a new generation who have no memory of what the last Tory government was like, who may find it easier to believe that some good will come from the Tories.

I certainly dont think the economic woe is helping the Tories because a lot of people are not liking the sound of cuts, but all the same a general sense of inevitability seems to dominate.

 

[embree]

Yeah but can they get in with 50% in the Midlands, south, and parts of the north and Wales, and 35% elsewhere?

I dunno - I'm asking a question btw. I do agree that a Tory victory is not cut and dried.

possibly, it's not clear cut especially under fptp

They'll get 1 MP in Scotland on 18% of the vote so it stands to reason they'll get a disproportionately high number on a higher percentage elsewhere

If they do win then we'll have a government with no mandate in Scotland, several major cities and very little in Wales.

 

[butchersapron]

ComRes too show Tory lead down to 10 points

It was supposed to be embargoed till 10 o’clock, but Andrew Grice’s sneak preview of the poll gives it all away anyway! The topline figures with changes from ComRes’s last poll are CON 37%(-2), LAB 27%(+2), LDEM 20%(+3). Others are at 16%, high compared to some other companies, but down three points from the rather anomalous 19% in ComRes’s last poll.

...

This is the third recent poll to show figures that on a uniform swing would leave the Conservatives narrowly short of an overall majority.

 

[London_Calling]

How badly did The Sun mess up with the exploitation of the Iraq war widow / misfiring attack on Brown. He's never looked so compassionate and sincere - mainly because he's not.

 

[Kaka Tim]

There is also a possibility of the 'shy labour' vote.

This happened when the tories were in power, they were so hated and vilified that some of there supporters were reluctant to tell pollsters that they were going to vote for them.

Could the same also be happening with the labour vote now? A lot of people are disgusted and sickened by nu-labour but will vote for them out of fear of the tories* - but dont what to admit to that.

* I am one of these people

 

[London_Calling]

Sure, people say all sorts of things in the years between elections, but when it's only weeks/months away the mind concentrates and people tend to return to their traditional thinking. NL will close the gap, it's a matter of fact.

 

[The Black Hand]

There is also a possibility of the 'shy labour' vote.

This happened when the tories were in power, they were so hated and vilified that some of there supporters were reluctant to tell pollsters that they were going to vote for them.

Could the same also be happening with the labour vote now? A lot of people are disgusted and sickened by nu-labour but will vote for them out of fear of the tories* - but dont what to admit to that.

* I am one of these people

A good point. Though those shy people in Labour stongholds like my own do not have to bother. There is a rumour going that Mandelsons going to get my seat, Durham North West Fuk

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_West_Durham_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

 

[DownwardDog]

Very diff to get a 6% swing from left to right - I think I heard on the radio that it has historically never been done (the best was 5.7% in 1979).

You have to think this was, to an extent, a rogue poll but, nonetheless, polls always close as an election nears and voters concentration focuses. Def game on.

They polls didn't get significantly closer in 1997, 2001 or 2005.

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/the-swing-back-myth-icm-199720012005/

 

[belboid]

did you actually read what you just linked to?

Predicted Labour lead Nov/Dec 97 - 19%. election labour lead 13%
ditto feb 2001 - 15% v 9%
ditto nov 2006 - 8% v 3%

no, no narrowing there at all.


stupid tory cunt

 

[DownwardDog]

did you actually read what you just linked to?

Predicted Labour lead Nov/Dec 97 - 19%. election labour lead 13%
ditto feb 2001 - 15% v 9%
ditto nov 2006 - 8% v 3%

no, no narrowing there at all.


stupid tory cunt

Stay classy, belboid.

My possibly poorly articulated point was that governments don't necessarily improve their standing in the polls as the election approachs.

 

[Mungy]

And there aren't folks who hate New Labour?

they are the tories too

 

[joevsimp]

A good point. Though those shy people in Labour stongholds like my own do not have to bother. There is a rumour going that Mandelsons going to get my seat, Durham North West Fuk

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_West_Durham_(UK_Parliament_constituency)

So the government would have to pass legislation, that, iirc, they didn't announce in the Queen's Speech, to allow Mandy to resign his life peerage and become a commoner again, impose him as a candidate on a constituency that may well (I hope) not want him within a hundred mile of them, and then put up with all the flack and negative publicity when a respected local councillor steps up as an alternative nominee, possibly even ending up with a Blaenau Gwent situation (probably with an independent cllr)

I hope that they aren't that unbelievably thick. the thought that Mandleson is probably the most qualified member of the cabinet to lead Labour after the next election ever so slightly horrifies me

 

[Kid_Eternity]

Gordon had a good day at PMQs, result of Ali Campbell's weekly return to No10, looks like Labour are getting themselves into the mindset of being ready to fight.

 

[little_legs]

I hope that they aren't that unbelievably thick. the thought that Mandleson is probably the most qualified member of the cabinet to lead Labour after the next election ever so slightly horrifies me

Is Mandy really that bad?

Gordon had a good day at PMQs, result of Ali Campbell's weekly return to No10, looks like Labour are getting themselves into the mindset of being ready to fight.

Seconded. And if the debates do happen, I hope Ali will be at hand to train Brown.

 

[Kid_Eternity]

Is Mandy really that bad?



Seconded. And if the debates do happen, I hope Ali will be at hand to train Brown.

I somehow doubt the Tory high command are relishing the thought of those debates now. This is going to be one very interesting election.

 

[Pickman's model]

with a giant douche on one side and a shit sandwich on the other.

 

[little_legs]

This is going to be one very interesting election.

Bring it on!

 

[little_legs]

with a giant douche on one side and a shit sandwich on the other.

Pickman's! a little less disparagement please.

 

[Pickman's model]

Pickman's! a little less disparagement please.

what they ought to do is to get cameron and the other party leaders, put them in a tv studio and hang them. the one who does the tyburn jig longest, their party wins.

that way there'd be a damn sight few people queuing up to be politicians

 

[little_legs]

what they ought to do is to get cameron and the other party leaders, put them in a tv studio and hang them. the one who does the tyburn jig longest, their party wins.

that IS an alternative, I agree. I am now officially scared of Pickman's Model. We should consider getting you a job at no 10, you'll usher us straight to the victory.

 

[butchersapron]

Populous' monthly poll for The Times has the tory lead down to 8%.

Populus’s monthly poll for the Times has topline figures, with changes from last month, of CON 38%(-1), LAB 30%(+1), LDEM 20%(+2).

While viewed as a single poll the changes are not particular significant, it echoes the trend seen in almost all the recent polls of showing the Conservative lead narrowing. More importantly, this really is a “proper” hung Parliament poll. In recent weeks we’ve seen a couple of polls showing a 10 point lead that on a strict uniform swing would have produced a hung Parliament, but in practice they’d probably have produced a Tory majority. Equally there was the famous MORI poll showing only a 6 point lead, but that was largely down to a sample that included an unusually high number of 2005 Labour voters. In contrast this poll really does put us in hung Parliament territory.

 

[The Black Hand]

So the government would have to pass legislation, that, iirc, they didn't announce in the Queen's Speech, to allow Mandy to resign his life peerage and become a commoner again, impose him as a candidate on a constituency that may well (I hope) not want him within a hundred mile of them, and then put up with all the flack and negative publicity when a respected local councillor steps up as an alternative nominee, possibly even ending up with a Blaenau Gwent situation (probably with an independent cllr)
I hope that they aren't that unbelievably thick. the thought that Mandleson is probably the most qualified member of the cabinet to lead Labour after the next election ever so slightly horrifies me

In bold is already going on. The Easington ward has been suspended (not now though, that particuilar struggle is over), which is pretty heavy shit, an old miner deposed and a new labour lacky now heads Durham County Council. Locally to Durham NW. councillors have already resigned from the Labour party and are acting as independent county councillors...