Urban75 Home About Offline BrixtonBuzz Contact
  • Hi Guest,
    We have now moved the boards to the new server hardware.
    Search will be impaired while it re-indexes the posts.
    See the thread in the Feedback forum for updates and feedback.
    Lazy Llama

Tory lead cut to 6% in poll ..

I'm concerned about the Tories recovering to 36% myself, it wouldn't take much more of a late swing to them for Dave to get a majority or near majority ... :hmm:
 
Fresh off the presses Ipso-mori/Reuters poll on key con/lab marginals where tories need a swing of between 5% and 9%:

Labour: 38% (up two)
Conservatives: 35% (up three)
Lib Dems: 21% (down two)


This represents a swing of 5.5% to the Conservatives since 2005. As in the previous three waves, this would result in a hung Parliament with the Conservatives as the biggest party. Certainty of voting in these constituencies has increased steadily over the last month, and a total of 71% of adults now say that they are absolutely certain to vote.

The increase in support for the Liberal Democrats in last week’s poll has been maintained, with 21% of voters saying they intend to vote Lib Dem (compared to 11% in the first two waves), even though almost all these constituencies are ones that the Liberal Democrats cannot realistically hope to win.
Click to expand...

However, a week before polling day, almost half of the public say that they may change their mind before May 6th (46%).
Click to expand...

Half of the public agree that the Conservatives are ready to govern (53%); an increase since Wave 2 when 46% agreed. Just under half say that Cameron is ready to be Prime Minister (46%), unchanged since Wave 2 (48%). By contrast, Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems are not seen as ready to take office by most people; 55% disagree that the Lib Dems are ready to govern and 60% disagree that Clegg is ready to be Prime Minister.
Click to expand...
 
belboid said:
It isn't. It gets a bit funny now cos of postal votes. One cannot report on how any has voted until the polls are closed, but it is, apparently, still okay to ask those who have voted how they would vote, as long as their answers aren't recorded seperately.
Click to expand...

That would surely make this a very dodgy 'tweet' - http://twitter.com/UKLabourParty/status/13069070085

Edited to add

Hmm, that link no longer seems to work - I presume it was deleted. But it was information on postal votes in Bristol. More from Guido Fawkes
 
Tonights proper daily YG (as opposed to the special one on bigot-gate that showed that it had made no difference at all, a result borne out by this one - in fact, it turns out that person the public turned against as a result of yesterday was Nick Clegg)

CON 34%(nc)
LAB 27%(nc)
LDEM 28%(-3)
 
butchersapron said:
Tonights proper daily YG (as opposed to the special one on bigot-gate that showed that it had made no difference at all, a result borne out by this one - in fact, it turns out that person the public turned against as a result of yesterday was Nick Clegg)

CON 34%(nc)
LAB 27%(nc)
LDEM 28%(-3)
Click to expand...
Or that a load more people found out who their independent/smaller party candidates were - they're 3% up, at the expense of the Lib Dems. Not that likely to hold in the marginals though.
 
ah yes, thanks

kerry-postal-vote-tweet.jpg
 
todays polls show libdems losing many points they gained back to the tories - tories now looking more likley to get in as a result. for those griping about libdems, at least they were keeping out the tories and allowing for some kind of lab victory - looks a lot less likely this morning than last week.

conclusion: people who watch bbc1 are tory scum :mad: ;)
 
this morinng Guardian/ICM poll shows Tory on 35%, Brown on 29% and LibClegg 27%. BBC poll of polls shows the same
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8280050.stm
looking at the graph on the bbc link its clear that the trend is for the lbdem vote evaporating from since the first debate, overall. anything can happen still, im jsut saying it looks more likely that the tory will win after last night based on these
 
No, it means that the lib-dem vote is still 7-8% higher than pre-first debate expectations - to defend the SW marginals the tories expected to take and to even go on to take some con/LD marginals 25% is more than adequate. In terms of giving labour the best chance of being the largest party 25% is bang on the money - the lib-dem rise seems to come equally from labour/con/others but is going to have a disproportionate effect on the tories due to the lib-dems target seats mostly being tory. The lib-dem support in the polls is not evaporating, it's just sliding back as people get fed up of Clegg's arrogance and sliminess.
 
If there's more than a day or so's shilly-shallying after the hung parliament is return, I'd love to see Brown man up - and say

"This is no time for Fucking about - I'm going to run a minority administration, starting from today, and you lot can either support or oppose the legislation you want to support as it comes up, or team up and table a vote of no confidence"
 
So? I didn't say it was going to happen either. In terms of it happening through, and absenting a large lab climb back to around 32% this would be the only realistic route to that outcome.

I do find that the arguments now being offered by some lib dems now is that they were the best chance of stopping a tory govt, despite Clegg clearly indicating that he's be over the fucking moon if offered the chance to prop up a tory govt. Why on earth ska invita thinks a drop off in their support will make his(Clegg's) dream come true any less likely i don't know.
 
ska invita said:
this morinng Guardian/ICM poll shows Tory on 35%, Brown on 29% and LibClegg 27%. BBC poll of polls shows the same
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8280050.stm
looking at the graph on the bbc link its clear that the trend is for the lbdem vote evaporating from since the first debate, overall. anything can happen still, im jsut saying it looks more likely that the tory will win after last night based on these
Click to expand...

...and that's the judgment on who won the debate, not on voting intention - the last ICM had the lib-dems on 30% - exactly the same as the week before.
 
butchersapron said:
...and that's the judgment on who won the debate, not on voting intention - the last ICM had the lib-dems on 30% - exactly the same as the week before.
Click to expand...

ah, fairenough, but the bbc polls is voting intentions going back decades

Ian BOne's called it!
A week from now the country will be run by an arrangement beteween two public school and Oxford toffs – Cameron and Clegg. So where’s the change???? The Labour leader considers anyone who raises immigratiion a bigot. Like a lot of people on the Left – some of them on here – he likes the ‘idea’ of the working class but can’t stand them as real people.They will all have lied about the huge cuts about to hit our class.Oh – Bliss That Dawn It Was To Be Alive.
Click to expand...
 
Oh no it's all over!!!!

Todays (sunday's really) YG
CON 34%(-1)
LAB 28% (+1)
LDEM 29% (+1).


ICM/Guardian.
CON 33%(-3)
LAB 28%(-1)
LDEM 28%(+1).
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

MrCurry
  • Poll
Tory leadership contest 2024
32 33 34 35 36
Replies
1K
Views
38K
PTK
PTK
Wilf
Things you'd like to see over the next 6 weeks
Replies
24
Views
918
Pickman's model
Pickman's model
Nigel
First Sikh Court To Be Established In Britain: London
Replies
15
Views
830
tonysingh
tonysingh
P
Is the Tory Era Over? Farage Predicts Massive Shift to Reform
2 3 4 5 6
Replies
153
Views
8K
Monkeygrinder's Organ
M
Cloo
What is the best way to combat a populist right victory in next GE?
2 3 4
Replies
98
Views
3K
LDC
LDC
Back
Top Bottom