Tory lead cut to 6% in poll ..

[butchersapron]

I also don't believe in gravity.

 

[Shevek]

Butchers. Why do you post in riddles or excerpts from a cryptic crossword. Is it some kind of stance or just your personality. I find your posting style opaque to say the least.

 

[JimW]

Butchers. Why do you post in riddles or excerpts from a cryptic crossword. Is it some kind of stance or just your personality. I find your posting style opaque to say the least.

Seems like a reasonable response to platitudes - if you want to raise the level of the debate, try a bit harder yourself.

 

[weltweit]

What likelyhood is there that the polls are wrong?

iirc they have been wrong before.

 

[Shevek]

Seems like a reasonable response to platitudes - if you want to raise the level of the debate, try a bit harder yourself.

So basically until I am totally instep with Butchers views and ideology he won't engage with me... priceless. No wonder anarchism is a ghetto.

 

[butchersapron]

You what?

 

[JimW]

So basically until I am totally instep with Butchers views and ideology he won't engage with me... priceless. No wonder anarchism is a ghetto.

Well, can't speak for butchers, but to me it seems like you fire off the first thing that's come into your head then sit back and expect everyone else to take up the slack in the actual thinking. Can't see how you expect to create an anarchist movement if you're not going to shift for yourself even a little bit.

 

[Shevek]

Well, can't speak for butchers, but to me it seems like you fire off the first thing that's come into your head then sit back and expect everyone else to take up the slack in the actual thinking. Can't see how you expect to create an anarchist movement if you're not going to shift for yourself even a little bit.

I don't think that is the case at all really. I do think about my posts and if you read them back I am generally quite consistent.

I think its just a case that I am not a seasoned political activist so don't come with all that baggage. Because I don't carry around all that ideological baggage people think I am shooting from the hip.

 

[butchersapron]

I would remind people of he shock news that started this thread as well. Tory lead down to 6 points. Today is 5-6% with the lib-dems damaging them and costing them at least 20 seats (LD seats ones the tories though were in the bag plus ld/con marginal gains)

 

[butchersapron]

Those ICM figures were actually 31:29:29 but they allocated +3 to the tories - following the narrative?

 

[butchersapron]

lab--> tory swing not big enough in marginals:

Voting intentions (among those absolutely certain to vote) in these key constituencies are Conservative 35%, Labour 38%, Liberal Democrat 21%, Others 6%. This represents a swing of 5.5% to the Conservatives since 2005. As in the previous three waves, this would result in a hung Parliament with the Conservatives as the biggest party. Certainty of voting in these constituencies has increased steadily over the last month, and a total of 71% of adults now say that they are absolutely certain to vote.

 

[Bailey]

You what?

cant understand simplest things can you

 

[butchersapron]

Hey Phil's going round all the threads i've posted on

 

[Balbi]

Those ICM figures were actually 31:29:29 but they allocated +3 to the tories - following the narrative?

You're like a pollster Jackanory

 

[stethoscope]

Ipsos Reuters Marginals poll:

Con 36% (+1)
Lab 36% (-2)
Lib Dem 20% (-1)

The last of our polls in key marginal constituencies, Ipsos MORI’s new poll for Reuters points suggests that the Conservatives are inching towards a majority with a 7% swing from 2005 in these key battleground constituencies. However, given that national polls are suggesting the Conservatives are more likely to lose seats to the Liberal Democrats than gain from them, this majority is not necessarily guaranteed.

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/poll.aspx?oItemId=2606

 

[pboi]

I have to say it does confuse me how it can be 36/36 and Cons are inching towards a majority

 

[William of Walworth]

What likelyhood is there that the polls are wrong?
iirc they have been wrong before.

I'd also liketo know how wrong the polls will be this time.

Unanswerable question though .....

 

[ExtraRefined]

I have to say it does confuse me how it can be 36/36 and Cons are inching towards a majority

That figure is for marginals. Countrywide the tories have a lead of somewhere around 8%

 

[butchersapron]

Or 5-6%

 

[William of Walworth]

That figure is for marginals. Countrywide the tories have a lead of somewhere around 8%

What butchers said -- it depends which poll you look at, there are still wide variations.

 

[FreddyB]

6 months ago we were told that this election was the Tories for the taking. They must feel fucking sick to be in this position with 2 days to go.

 

[William of Walworth]

6 months ago we were told that this election was the Tories for the taking. They must feel fucking sick to be in this position with 2 days to go.

I sort of agree but I have fears of a last minute swing back towards them ....

 

[butchersapron]

Any swing will be the other way - they always are.

 

[marty21]

Brown seems to have woken from his slumber, didn't see his speech last night, but media reports were that it was a stormer, all he needs is a minor swing back, still all to play for. Disco is assuming a lot, I've a feeling that the Tories are planning for a minority government, like the SNP, doing deals with various groups of mps to get legislation through

 

[William of Walworth]

I hope this cretin sounding off in North West Norfolk (the Guardian and others are all over him ) doesn't put too big a spanner in the works.

 

[Cobbles]

I hope this cretin sounding off in North West Norfolk (the Guardian and others are all over him ) doesn't put too big a spanner in the works.

Wow! - a Labour politician breaking ranks.

Whatever next?

 

[stethoscope]

Wow! - a Labour politician breaking ranks.

Whatever next?

Something else Nu Lab have learned from the Tories.

 

[marty21]

I hope this cretin sounding off in North West Norfolk (the Guardian and others are all over him ) doesn't put too big a spanner in the works.

he's in an unwinnable seat, and wonders why the big guns aren't helping him - threw his toys out of his pram - and won't get another shot at a seat - seems to not understand the system - you go for unwinnable seats, and eventually you might get a better seat to go for - he won't get another seat now he's had a hissy fit - he'll defect to the lib dems before long

In an interview with BBC News, Sood said: "I could do a better job than him [Brown]. He needs to go on holiday and give me a chance to take over."

jeeze, he really is an idiot, how was he selected in the first place ?

 

[William of Walworth]

Wow! - a Labour politician breaking ranks.

Whatever next?

Sarcasm doesn't suit you.

Yes, this sort of 'gaffe' is a running risk in all elections for all parties, especially when the candidate seems to have less brain than a semi functioning amoeba (marty has it right there)

There are ways and ways of breaking ranks, or of distancing yourself from Brown, or of showing independence -- shooting yourself in the foot and garnering general anti Labour publicity in the press isn't it.

 

[William of Walworth]

jeeze, he really is an idiot, how was he selected in the first place ?

Someone said above that he was engineered a candidacy by the national party!