Tory lead cut to 6% in poll ..

[butchersapron]

Peter Kellner has an interesting piece of analysis in the Times today - read the last 5 o6 paras for the effect of this lib-dem 'gentle rise' in the con/lab marginals - not good at all for the tories.

Our sample of 2,220 in these target seats now puts Labour one point ahead. The swing since 2005 is down to 4% in the Labour marginals — the same as the national swing. Not only is the prospect of big Conservative gains from the Lib Dems slipping away; the bonus swing the Tories had been enjoying in the Labour marginals has also disappeared.

The Lib Dem surge has hurt the Tories with special force in Labour-Conservative marginals. The 10-point gain in Lib Dem support in these seats has been overwhelmingly at the Tories’ expense.

 

[butchersapron]

Tonights ICM/Guardian is :

Con 33%
Lab 28%
LibDem 30%

Figures exactly the same as last week - which they, for some reason, choose to present as labour being in danger of dropping below a 20% share of the vote.

edit:compared to the latest ICM poll (yesterday) it's actually - (not sure if you should compare across polls for different client s though):


Con 33% (-2)
Lab 28% (+2)
LibDem 30% (-1)

 

[Balbi]

https://www.youfund.me.uk/antony-calvert/

The stupid fucker, I love the 'REMEMBER THE PORTILLO MOMENT, GIVE ME YOUR DONATIONS AND I'LL GIVE YOU A BALLS MOMENT'.....yes, if you get elected we'll all be going 'balls'

 

[butchersapron]

Todays yougov

Con: 33 (-1)
Lib Dem: 29 (-1)
Lab: 28 (n/c)

Comrees poll rumoured to show tory majority - which could mean large rise in tory vote, or collapse in LD or Lab vote.

 

[butchersapron]

Rumour (started by CR) was rubbish:

CON 32 (-2)
LD 31 (+2)
LAB 28 (n/c)

 

[Balbi]

Haven't CR done that a couple of times now, a few feeder twitters to excite the livebloggers - followed by standard results for what's known?

 

[butchersapron]

Yes, they do seem to be the ones where stuff just 'slips out...or i supposed to have...don't know why they, they've got a decent reputation.

 

[Kaka Tim]

Hmmm - the lib dem vote seems to be holding up - but I'm not convinced it will materalise to the same extent on may 6th.

Be interesting to see wether Clegg hinting at a deal with the tories will have an effect - other then I cant see the polls moving lots between now and may 6th.

When do they have to stop doing polls?
A week before?

How can we survive a week without an opinion poll?

 

[ska invita]

Hmmm - the lib dem vote seems to be holding up - but I'm not convinced it will materalise to the same extent on may 6th.

the final debate is expected to have viewing figures of 15 million - that could be another 5 million who havent got involved thus far. if youre the kind of person who hasnt got involved thus far, i would suggest your not really interested in mainstream politics, and might be relatively easily swayed. could be another clegg boost.

 

[butchersapron]

Tories decisively shore up their collapsed gay vote by being forced to remove a candidate for anti-gay comments. (North Ayrshire and Arran)

 

[William of Walworth]

When do they have to stop doing polls?
A week before?

How can we survive a week without an opinion poll?

I don't have any recollection of this being a General Election requirement???

 

[belboid]

It isn't. It gets a bit funny now cos of postal votes. One cannot report on how any has voted until the polls are closed, but it is, apparently, still okay to ask those who have voted how they would vote, as long as their answers aren't recorded seperately.

 

[William of Walworth]

Cheers for that, it would explain why I remember all sorts opinion polls being reported immediately prior to polling day, over previous GEs.

 

[elbows]

Tories decisively shore up their collapsed gay vote by being forced to remove a candidate for anti-gay comments. (North Ayrshire and Arran)

Only its too late to take his name off the ballot, just like that bloke who got suspended from Labour the other day. Has this happened much in previous elections?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8647206.stm

 

[belboid]

<ignore, confusing two different things>

 

[butchersapron]

Up your fucking arse Clegg - today's YG

Conservative 33% (n/c)
Labour 29% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 28% (-1)
Others 10%

(and yet another CR rumour, this time that also have labour in 2nd again)

 

[TAE]

butchersapron celebrates labour managing to be a whole 1% above Lib Dems.

How times have changed.

 

[butchersapron]

Yeah the lib dems have gone up by 8, the labour vote has stayed the same and the tories and other have dropped by 4 each.

 

[Quartz]

I watched the Tories' election broadcast. I was almost pleased to see that the Tories had a sense of humour. They're (edit) really (/edit) running scared, aren't they?

 

[butchersapron]

CR

Con 33% (+1)
Lab 29% (+1)
LD 29% (-2)
Others 9%.

Lid dem collapse continues apace

On UNS

Labour 277 seats – (49 short)
Conservatives 248
Liberal Democrats 93.

 

[butchersapron]

Anyone watching David Dimbleby drunk and arrogant on ITV?

 

[butchersapron]

Julian Glover continues his remarkable series of pro lib-dem anti labour news pieces in tonights ICM/Guardian poll of lib-dem target seats. It finds that the lib-dems stand to gain 17 more seats - 5 from labour and 12 from the tories - yet in his expert opinion this can accurately be described as:

The Liberal Democrats are on course to sharply increase their number of MPs, largely at Labour's expense, a Guardian/ICM poll suggests today.

5 is now bigger than 12 in this freaks world. I've never seen such nakedly biased analysis as he's came up with over the last few weeks from a 'serious' reporter on a 'serious' paper.

edit: tonights yougov:

CON 34%(+1)
LAB 27%(-2)
LDEM 31%(+3)

 

[Balbi]

Butchers, did you catch the grauniad article predicting a labour walloping from the spod who predicted the 2008 US Presidentials?

 

[butchersapron]

I did yeah, read his original piece too - to say he was unfamiliar with the UK system would be to understate the case.

 

[Balbi]

Aye, the U.S to U.K thing doesn't translate well - still, something to keep in mind a week Friday.

 

[ymu]

I did yeah, read his original piece too - to say he was unfamiliar with the UK system would be to understate the case.

^^This. I thought about posting it, but it was riddled with nonsense and I didn't have the energy. He's dead right about uniform swing, but he's not addressed the problem in a relevant way at all. I was disappointed - I've been trying to find a more sophisticated analysis but that ain't it.

 

[butchersapron]

Tonights CR:

CON 36%(+3)
LAB 29%(nc)
LDEM 26%(-3).

 

[ska invita]

CR

Con 33% (+1)
Lab 29% (+1)
LD 29% (-2)
Others 9%.

Lid dem collapse continues apace

On UNS

Labour 277 seats – (49 short)
Conservatives 248
Liberal Democrats 93.

Comrades in Nizhny Novgorod have tripled steel production in the first quarter!

I dont think I would say Lid dem collapse continues apace - if anyone has truly collapsed its the Torys, and I think we can all celebrate that.

By the way, dont know what this really means, but it doesnt look very good news for labour:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/apr/28/liberal-democrats-labour-marginals-poll

 

[William of Walworth]

Here's the actual link for that article Balbi/butchers/ymu are talking of above ... the so called 'US expert' one.

 

[William of Walworth]

By the way, dont know what this really means, but it doesnt look very good news for labour:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2010/apr/28/liberal-democrats-labour-marginals-poll

Aren't they discussing that Julian Glover stuff above? His clear bias undermines his reliability, as already mentioned.