Tory lead cut to 6% in poll ..

[pboi]

ty guys. Just watched Cam after getting into work, hes really got some momentum behind him, so much has changed in a few weeks. Really interesting to see how this plays out

 

[stethoscope]

Tonight's polls...

YouGov daily tracker:
Tory - 35% (0)
Labour - 30% (+2)
Lib Dem - 24% (-4)

ComRes:
Tory - 37%
Labour - 29%
Lib Dem - 26%
(all unchanged)

 

[marty21]

Tonight's polls...

YouGov daily tracker:
Tory - 35% (0)
Labour - 30% (+2)
Lib Dem - 24% (-4)

ComRes:
Tory - 37%
Labour - 29%
Lib Dem - 26%
(all unchanged)

not too conclusive really, can't see the Tories hitting 37% , we're truly screwed if they do! still think it's going to be hung, and I think the Tories will try and run as a minority government

 

[marty21]

Someone said above that he was engineered a candidacy by the national party!

that doesn't surprise me tbf, they have a history of forcing candidates on local parties - ignoring local concerns, looks like they fucked up again with this one

 

[JHE]

not too conclusive really, can't see the Tories hitting 37% , we're truly screwed if they do! still think it's going to be hung, and I think the Tories will try and run as a minority government

I agree with the last bit. I think Cameron might well opt to run a minority government, rather than concede enough to the Lib Dems to get them into a coalition.

Could the Tories get 37% or more? There were times (pre-92, I think) when the polls badly underestimated the Tory vote. Perhaps that's happening again (in many polls).

 

[pboi]

people wont admit to voting Tory imo, dont underestimate

 

[belboid]

yes they will, have done for years. People are more embarassed about admitting to voting labour now. AND the pollsters take all that into account.

Tories will get 36% imo

 

[butchersapron]

Shy voter is always with the govt.

 

[TAE]

he's in an unwinnable seat, and wonders why the big guns aren't helping him - threw his toys out of his pram - and won't get another shot at a seat - seems to not understand the system - you go for unwinnable seats, and eventually you might get a better seat to go for - he won't get another seat now he's had a hissy fit - he'll defect to the lib dems before long


jeeze, he really is an idiot, how was he selected in the first place ?

Is this, by any chance, how we end up with boring compliant follow-the-leader MPs who rarely defy the wips?

 

[marty21]

Is this, by any chance, how we end up with boring compliant follow-the-leader MPs who rarely defy the wips?

get elected first, then you can defy the whips, not a lot of point defying them when you aren't on their radar

 

[marty21]

I agree with the last bit. I think Cameron might well opt to run a minority government, rather than concede enough to the Lib Dems to get them into a coalition.

Could the Tories get 37% or more? There were times (pre-92, I think) when the polls badly underestimated the Tory vote. Perhaps that's happening again (in many polls).

I think the reverse is true now, the 92 Election had an unpopular government in power for 13 years, who had changed their leader without calling a general election, everyone expected the Tories to lose (the polls were way out)

now again we have an unpopular government in power for 13 years who everyone expects to lose (who changed their leader without calling a general election)

in 92, it was a case of people changing votes at the last minute (imo) and staying with what they knew, rather than risking the unknown of a Labour Government.

 

[ska invita]

lib dem vote is disappearing - tune is imminent

BBC poll of polls has libcleggs down to 26%, and thats on a pattern of falls which i reckon will continue into tommorow
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8280050.stm

 

[butchersapron]

Clegg's hubris was never going to be a long term vote winner. 87 seats i reckon.

 

[butchersapron]

Plus CR found that 41% of lib-dem supporters might change their mind about who to vote for. That is a really soft vote.

 

[ska invita]

i really thought we were going to have some kind of lib coalition with a referendum on PR as the deal breaker - back to the same old same old it seems. i guess its not over till its over, but its looking less and less likely now. god politics in britain (england in particular) is boring. i wonder if i'll ever see the UK become a republic in my life time... not at this rate. ive never understood why the english are so inherently conservative. If only Cromwell hadn't become such a religious fruitloop we might have a half-modern parliament by now...

 

[ericjarvis]

It was already back to the same old same old the moment the campaign started. The TV and newspapers simply presented a presidential style campaign between Brown, Cameron, and Clegg, and pretty much the entire electorate fell for it. All the stuff about being angry about MPs with their snouts in the trough went out the window and it became all about which party leader made the nicest promises and looked most reassuring on TV. Almost nobody seems to remember that they wanted to be rid of corrupt and self seeking MPs as little as 6 months ago.

So it's same old same old. We are ruled from party headquarters and TV studios because that's what the public want. Politics given to them on a plate with no tedious effort to find out who they will actually get to vote for, what their past record is, how likely they are to vote according to their party's line, and how many manifesto promises their party is likely to keep.

Yet another almost entirely fictional election campaign, at the end of which a majority of voters won't even remember the name of the candidate they actually voted for. Then a few years down the line we'll hear about the latest scandalous abuse of public trust by MPs and everyone will wonder how they think they can get away with it. Well this is how. Come the election campaign everyone switches off their brains, empties the memory cache, turns on the TV leadership debates, and votes in their MP according to what vague promises the relevant party leader made on TV. Why should MPs give a shit what the public thinks about them? Clearly almost nobody actually cares enough to vote according to who the actual candidates are in their constituency.

 

[The39thStep]

It was already back to the same old same old the moment the campaign started. The TV and newspapers simply presented a presidential style campaign between Brown, Cameron, and Clegg, and pretty much the entire electorate fell for it. All the stuff about being angry about MPs with their snouts in the trough went out the window and it became all about which party leader made the nicest promises and looked most reassuring on TV. Almost nobody seems to remember that they wanted to be rid of corrupt and self seeking MPs as little as 6 months ago.

So it's same old same old. We are ruled from party headquarters and TV studios because that's what the public want. Politics given to them on a plate with no tedious effort to find out who they will actually get to vote for, what their past record is, how likely they are to vote according to their party's line, and how many manifesto promises their party is likely to keep.

Yet another almost entirely fictional election campaign, at the end of which a majority of voters won't even remember the name of the candidate they actually voted for. Then a few years down the line we'll hear about the latest scandalous abuse of public trust by MPs and everyone will wonder how they think they can get away with it. Well this is how. Come the election campaign everyone switches off their brains, empties the memory cache, turns on the TV leadership debates, and votes in their MP according to what vague promises the relevant party leader made on TV. Why should MPs give a shit what the public thinks about them? Clearly almost nobody actually cares enough to vote according to who the actual candidates are in their constituency.

sheeple issue?

 

[kabbes]

You can't mix First Past The Post with a party political system. It doesn't work. Are you voting for an individual or a party? You can't blame people for not bothering to learn their own candidate's name when the political system treats everyone in a party as a bloc in any case.

 

[William of Walworth]

I just hope the Tories don't hit 36% or even ( ) 37%

Not too fussed about exactly how the rest pans out, so long as the Tories don't approach (or even get!! ) a majority.

 

[Quartz]

You can't mix First Past The Post with a party political system. It doesn't work. Are you voting for an individual or a party? You can't blame people for not bothering to learn their own candidate's name when the political system treats everyone in a party as a bloc in any case.

Speak for yourself. One of the prime reasons I'm not voting Labour is the disgraceful behaviour of the last Labour MP and the fact that the local Labour party, including the current candidate, backed her. Then there's Gordon Brown... I'm undecided, but I'm most likely to vote for the Lib Dem candidate (60% vs Tory 40%), and the local Lib Dems have been assiduous not only in keeping me informed about local politics but also soliciting my opinion.

 

[TAE]

You can't mix First Past The Post with a party political system. It doesn't work. Are you voting for an individual or a party? You can't blame people for not bothering to learn their own candidate's name when the political system treats everyone in a party as a bloc in any case.

Not sure what you are trying to say but I'll just add this:

How often do MPs get a free vote or defy the wips?

 

[embree]

Lib Dems to end with c24/25%

This will make LD/Tory marginals unwinnable for Tories and maybe even lose a few to LDs (Eastbourne, Wells, Weston-super-Mare, Guildford)

Tories therefore have to win an extra 20+ seats from Labour which they hadn't bargained for

Late swing back to incumbent government (always happens without fail) as the undecideds plump for the devil they know and anti-Tories realise what's at stake

All meaning that Labour are biggest party in a hung parliament on the second placed share of the vote. Gordon Brown still PM on Friday evening.

 

[2k.]

Lib Dems to end with c24/25%

This will make LD/Tory marginals unwinnable for Tories and maybe even lose a few to LDs (Eastbourne, Wells, Weston-super-Mare, Guildford)

Tories therefore have to win an extra 20+ seats from Labour which they hadn't bargained for

Late swing back to incumbent government (always happens without fail) as the undecideds plump for the devil they know and anti-Tories realise what's at stake

All meaning that Labour are biggest party in a hung parliament on the second placed share of the vote. Gordon Brown still PM on Friday evening.

I so hope you are right there, I am utterly terrified of waking up Friday morning to find that smug, horrible bastard Cameron as PM. I'm stuck in a really safe Tory seat. The only hope here is that Labour voters start using their common sense and vote Lib Dem to have any chance of getting rid of the Tory's

 

[butchersapron]

YouGov/ Evening Standard:

CON: 36%
LAB: 31%
LD: 27%

edit:appears to be a london poll.

 

[belboid]

I so hope you are right there, I am utterly terrified of waking up Friday morning to find that smug, horrible bastard Cameron as PM. I'm stuck in a really safe Tory seat. The only hope here is that Labour voters start using their common sense and vote Lib Dem to support a minority tory government

corrected for you

 

[2k.]

do you honestly believe that the Lib Dems would form a coalition government with the Tories? I can't believe that they would. If I thought they would then i'd just spoil my paper instead.

 

[cutandsplice]

do you honestly believe that the Lib Dems would form a coalition government with the Tories? I can't believe that they would. If I thought they would then i'd just spoil my paper instead.

Clegg would support satan if he thought he'd get a whiff of power.

 

[butchersapron]

Clegg has said over and over that he would - he's even backtracked on the conditions that would lead to a tory/lib dem coalition - and they are in coalition with them in wat 10 or 11 councils. There's no ideological barrier at all.

 

[butchersapron]

****

 

[belboid]

do you honestly believe that the Lib Dems would form a coalition government with the Tories? I can't believe that they would. If I thought they would then i'd just spoil my paper instead.

Clegg IS a tory. On the right of the liberal party, orange book supporter, worked for Leon Brittan, and a member whilst at whichever posh yooni he went to.