I think that the plonker may be right for a change. The SNP has always had economically and socially conservative wings and is not Labour. Any post independence Scotland will no doubt see a reorganisation of politics, it will take many years but either the Tories will settle for being a small rump destined to always be a junior coalition party (which some will be happy with) or the more ambitious and pragmatic will look for a new home, the only two options as I see it would be to form a new party altogether that would presumably be another small pointless party maybe like Irelands old PDs or they will join a larger party capable of winning power, even majority power - there are only two of them in Scotland.
The Scottish independence referendum polling thread
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
scifisam
feck! arse! girls! drink!
It does, but the centre is not fixed. The centre is father left in the UK than in the US and it seems to also be further left in Scotland than England.
Very true. But that centre line wanders.
TheHoodedClaw
acknowledging ur soup leg
John Swinney worked in the corporate strategic planning department, in a senior role, of a venerable Scottish mutual organisation, at the time said org was lifting its skirts to the most lucrative corporate raider it could find. Alex Salmond was an oil economist for RBS. Maybe they've changed? (Nicola Sturgeon I like - I've underestimated her in the past, but that's not a mistake I'll be making again)
Casually Red
tomorrow belongs to me
thought this was a good article...pretty much covers all the points raised here including the UkiP angle
basically that the referendum itself is politicisng a younger generation and having them openly articulate the kind of scotland they want ..creating real expectations and demands. That actual politics is being discussed everywhere and its ensuring scots dissatisfaction with Westminster isnt going the ukip route lke south of the border but somewhere much more progressive
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/31/scottish-independence-yes-vote-turnout-polls
as regards former tory supporters theyll be that toxic that anyone affording them a political home will become an object of derision with the Scottish electorate. its a small country and harder to blend n ..theyre despised and people know who they are . offering them a home will cost you dear ..no reason why any political faction would commit that type of hari kari.
As regards Salmond and co the central plank of the entire debate has been Scottish resources for the benefit of the Scottish people and scottsh people beng better off socially. if they take the neo liberal route theyll be slaughtered in no time . Theres no glorious independence war for them to hide behind..no civil war loyalties . No doubt theyll get a honeymoon period of thanks but the pressure will be on them to deliver from early on. Both from pro and anti union camps
basically that the referendum itself is politicisng a younger generation and having them openly articulate the kind of scotland they want ..creating real expectations and demands. That actual politics is being discussed everywhere and its ensuring scots dissatisfaction with Westminster isnt going the ukip route lke south of the border but somewhere much more progressive
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/31/scottish-independence-yes-vote-turnout-polls
as regards former tory supporters theyll be that toxic that anyone affording them a political home will become an object of derision with the Scottish electorate. its a small country and harder to blend n ..theyre despised and people know who they are . offering them a home will cost you dear ..no reason why any political faction would commit that type of hari kari.
As regards Salmond and co the central plank of the entire debate has been Scottish resources for the benefit of the Scottish people and scottsh people beng better off socially. if they take the neo liberal route theyll be slaughtered in no time . Theres no glorious independence war for them to hide behind..no civil war loyalties . No doubt theyll get a honeymoon period of thanks but the pressure will be on them to deliver from early on. Both from pro and anti union camps
The Tories got 16.7% of the vote in Scotland in the 2010 general election according to Wikipedia compared to 19.9% for the SNP.
In the 2009 Euro elections they got 16.8%
They got 16.6% in the Scottish parliamentary elections of 2011 during the most vicious government in a while
I'm not convinced the Tories are toxic in Scotland - in fact they represent a significant constituency
In the 2009 Euro elections they got 16.8%
They got 16.6% in the Scottish parliamentary elections of 2011 during the most vicious government in a while
I'm not convinced the Tories are toxic in Scotland - in fact they represent a significant constituency
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
There will be reorganisation, but I don't think it'll be the way you envisage.
geminisnake
a complex mass of conflicting ideas
Who cares? Iirc the Tories got approx 16% of the Holyrood vote, many of them are aging, some of them are going to disappear. Some of them might give up on voting, what's to say there won't be a Scottish Conservative party? They may well keep voting for them.
Where have all the English left wing voters gone?? Who do they have to vote for?? The SNP aren't going to have to court any extra votes imo, well they have to court mine coz I'm not a fan.
Who are all the Lib Dem voters going to vote for? There are more than 2 political parties in most European countries. Have you ever seen a German ballot paper? They're massive!
The SNP are not going to get overrun by Tories any time soon, but as to who they switch allegiance to, if they do at all, how the heck would I know? I have studied political figures for years and honestly the Tories ARE a dying bred in Scotland.
Who cares? Iirc the Tories got approx 16% of the Holyrood vote, many of them are aging, some of them are going to disappear. Some of them might give up on voting, what's to say there won't be a Scottish Conservative party? They may well keep voting for them.
Where have all the English left wing voters gone?? Who do they have to vote for?? The SNP aren't going to have to court any extra votes imo, well they have to court mine coz I'm not a fan.
Who are all the Lib Dem voters going to vote for? There are more than 2 political parties in most European countries. Have you ever seen a German ballot paper? They're massive!
The SNP are not going to get overrun by Tories any time soon, but as to who they switch allegiance to, if they do at all, how the heck would I know? I have studied political figures for years and honestly the Tories ARE a dying bred in Scotland.
I'm very familiar with the political systems in countries with PR elections - and am aware that Scotland can and will accommodate more than two (or three) parties - however I'm not convinced the Tories are currently a viable force - but that doesn't mean their steadyish 14 - 19% support is going anyway or that there isn't a very strong Tartan Tory element within the SNP anyway, the fact is as the party of nation and capital in a post-independence Scotland the SNP would be their natural home although I'm sure there will always be a rump of unionist Tory freaks, the go-getters will want to shape the new Scotland and there will be only one party where they can do that, especially in the likelihood that both SNP and Labour would refuse to form a coalition with the Tories at Holyrood.
The ideological core of the SNP is framed around independence - once that is achieved they become another ideology free party, the economics won't allow them to be social democrats. Even if they have to tack left on some issues due to what's popular with the electorate.
Theisticle
Well-Known Member
Monbiot writes some right shit:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/scots-independence-england-scotland
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/02/scots-independence-england-scotland
DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
That's tactical voting. Look at the number of votes for the SNP in 2011 and compare it to 2010.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Really? That's what's left after tactical voting doesn't work surely - that's their hardcore. Their core vote. The rest of it is elsewhere voting tactically. So + a bit to that 20%.
Why compare it to SNP vote unless you're going to demonstrate something?
DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
Not sure that is correct. At General Election time the Tories and Labour get saturation coverage on all major media outlets.
Why compare? The argument was that the Tory vote is only marginally worse than the SNP vote and are therefore not toxic. Despite the media attention they can't even muster the same as a political party that does not get any media coverage at all.
I realise the collapse of the Lib Dems had an effect in 2011, but it is interesting that these votes never go to the Tories. The implication here is that the Tories represent a significant constituency is probably true, but it depends what is meant by 'significant'. Are Lib Dems significant in Scottish politics? They only marginally beat the Greens in 2011 (despite a lot more media attention). Are UKIP significant in UK politics (they are reaching 16% of the vote in opinion polling)?
Why compare? The argument was that the Tory vote is only marginally worse than the SNP vote and are therefore not toxic. Despite the media attention they can't even muster the same as a political party that does not get any media coverage at all.
I realise the collapse of the Lib Dems had an effect in 2011, but it is interesting that these votes never go to the Tories. The implication here is that the Tories represent a significant constituency is probably true, but it depends what is meant by 'significant'. Are Lib Dems significant in Scottish politics? They only marginally beat the Greens in 2011 (despite a lot more media attention). Are UKIP significant in UK politics (they are reaching 16% of the vote in opinion polling)?
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Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
The Scottish Tories will run south of the border, scared of becoming lamppost decorations. It's up to Northumbrians and Cumbrians to herd them further south, we'll see them out of Yorkshire, if everyone else joins in maybe we can chase them into the sea, or worse the Isle of Wight.
Ungrateful
Tired and Weary
Proportionality, which Tories hate south of the border, saved their skins North of the border. In the Scottish Parliament they have representation consistent with their support and worth Tories still voting for them. In Westminister elections they had to gerrymander a constituency (the odd shaped one for David Mundell, that takes in rural-ish bits from the Borders, Dumfries and Galloway, Lothian) to ensure they got one seat. Oddly outside the SNP, Scottish Tories have had a run of pretty effective Scottish party leaders. I hate them and all they stand for, but Annabel Goldie and Ruth Davidson are articulate and have presence in the way completely missing from Scottish Labour and Liberal Democrat leaders.
I'd marginally prefer Independence over the continuation of the Union (not that it'll make significant difference either way). However, despite the appallingly inept 'Better Together' campaign - and good media performances recently from Alex Salmond and a lively grassroots 'Yes' Campaign - it looks increasingly unlikely. The bookies (on oddschecker) initially made Independence the rank outsider in a two horse race. The odds did come in a little (though not very far, following the second TV debate), but have started to drift away from independence again. Bookies rarely get it wrong. Best odds for Independence: 3/1 (25% chance); Best odds for No: 3/10 (76%) - most bookies have it 1/4 (80% chance).
I'd marginally prefer Independence over the continuation of the Union (not that it'll make significant difference either way). However, despite the appallingly inept 'Better Together' campaign - and good media performances recently from Alex Salmond and a lively grassroots 'Yes' Campaign - it looks increasingly unlikely. The bookies (on oddschecker) initially made Independence the rank outsider in a two horse race. The odds did come in a little (though not very far, following the second TV debate), but have started to drift away from independence again. Bookies rarely get it wrong. Best odds for Independence: 3/1 (25% chance); Best odds for No: 3/10 (76%) - most bookies have it 1/4 (80% chance).
DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
Not just Borders, they did it in Glasgow, Dundee, Aberdeen and Edinburgh. That made their wipeout doubly impressive.
What? Tactical voting is when you vote for a party you don't support in order to beat a party you hate, at the expense of the party you would prefer.
Yes UKIP are significant in UK politics, particularly English if they are polling that much, of course they are! You only have to look at the number of councilors, of the recent defection, and all the media coverage to see a significant presence.
16%+ support for the Tories in Scotland makes them a very significant presence as a political party, and probably (given their association with unionism) nowhere near reflective natural support for either social conservatism or economic liberalism in Scotland - which only has one realistic outlet beyond them and that's the SNP.
DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
Labour Party (not most voters) hate the SNP, SNP party and voters don't necessarily hate Labour/Liberals. Most prefer them to the Tories. Will be interesting to see if that changes in the next few months/years.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
There's been murmurings of a panelbase poll carried out for the YES team that has been hushed up - panelbase don't seem happy about this as they seem to feel it reflects badly on them - anyway, upshot is that it's being published either tonight. It could be bad for YES or it could be them playing silly buggers and building up tension.
Yes I read a mention of that Yes poll rumour yesterday,but you've put more a bit detail on it. A poll like that couldn't really be hushed up anyway could it? Bracing myself for a tsunami of Scottish news tomorrow now ..
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Panelbase have generally produced the highest 'Yes' scores, and (excluding the DKs) their last effort on 15/08 produced Y48:52N...so, given recent movement, a Y lead is certainly feasible.
Er I know
DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
The UK government hushed up what were effectively massive polls of Scottish social attitudes. Maybe they hushed up two of them.
redsquirrel
This Machine Kills Progressives
Do you mean this poll?
which was also reported in he Guardian (although there search engine is so bad I can't find the link at the moment).
Not very effective hushing up.
DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
redsquirrel
No that is an academic thing that Glasgow University do every year. I think that is actually funded by the Scottish Government, but could be wrong. I couldn't find an in-depth technical paper on social attitudes survey, so can't figure out what the figures mean.
This one was never published. I am certain there was a much bigger (or several) one as well near the start of the year. Basically, the UK government have spent the same amount of money that would be required to conduct a research programme on the scale of the social attitudes survey, and never published it. The SNP or even Wings over Scotland(!) refuse to publish two polls and there is outrage.
No that is an academic thing that Glasgow University do every year. I think that is actually funded by the Scottish Government, but could be wrong. I couldn't find an in-depth technical paper on social attitudes survey, so can't figure out what the figures mean.
This one was never published. I am certain there was a much bigger (or several) one as well near the start of the year. Basically, the UK government have spent the same amount of money that would be required to conduct a research programme on the scale of the social attitudes survey, and never published it. The SNP or even Wings over Scotland(!) refuse to publish two polls and there is outrage.
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
YG have one for the times tmw and murdoch is bragging it's going to be shocking for britain - which suggests a good YES lead to me.
DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
Yeah, I saw that. He also made a reference to giving Cameron and Miliband blackeyes if Scotland votes Yes. I really hope that means that one of his papers will back Yes.
DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
As far as I can tell, a mixture of both. It certainly responds to polls and not just bets. There is one huge bet in London that could be skewing things (nearly 50% (£800,000) of all bets placed (approx £2m)).
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