The Scottish independence referendum polling thread
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
Murdoch is very strange character. As far as I can tell, he does not really care.
both, basically. the aim is to set prices such that the book returns a profit regardless of outcome. they will change prices reactively as bets are placed, and proactively when predictive models suggest - for example if polls start returning clear majorities on favour of yes.
not really. those three bets are at such massively short odd that they will be absorbed pretty easily.
edit: that £2M figure is just for one bookie, presumably. twice that has been staked on betfair, and the odds there are broadly in keeping with the high street bookies (allowing for commission).
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Revenge, pure and simple. Whatever hurts those that tried to hurt his precious...I mean snuggling up to Farage ffs...
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/07/nigel-farage-talks-rupert-murdoch-ukip
Sorry, was meant to be in response to poului above
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/07/nigel-farage-talks-rupert-murdoch-ukip
Sorry, was meant to be in response to poului above
He wants to back the winner. He´s finally figured out that YES is going to win. Took him long enough...
Frankie Jack
Not a bloke..
Hmm I must admit if he is pushing the indie line maybe yes will win, as you say he only backs winners
I´ve been telling everyone that YES has it in the bag for months now. But no one ever listens to me....
I take it on a case by case basis sometimes you're right sometimes you're wrong
miktheword
Well-Known Member
butchersapron
Bring back hanging
Panelbase poll now released:
Yes: 44%
No: 48%
Undecided: 8%
Excluding undecideds@
Yes: 48%
No: 52%
Yes: 44%
No: 48%
Undecided: 8%
Excluding undecideds@
Yes: 48%
No: 52%
DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
It looks like the Labour/Tory base are going full loon. We've had it here for a while, it looks like England is catching up 
Oh god, I want a yes vote.
Oh god, I want a yes vote.
DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
Fuck me, some of the comments under that article are hilarious
Never a truer word has been spoken.
Well I´m pretty impressed with myself anyway.
It´s going to be really funny from now on, as Milliband and company start to panic. They´ll campaign for ¨NO¨ with increasing desperation, not realizing that the public will be delighted to do anything the political establishment tells them not to. And so their hole will get bigger and bigger. This is starting to look like a landslide.
MAD-T-REX
Well-Known Member
I am stunned/excited by this. Unless there is a major gaffe by Salmond, the increasingly irate 'Fuck those ungrateful Scots' comments from the English right will just drive more people to the Yes camp.
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spring-peeper
Well-Known Member
I'm sure they will be more than welcome.
ferrelhadley
There is no love between us anymore.
(((((Berwick Rangers fans )))) Schengen for the sake of the wee gers.
danny la rouge
I have a cheese grater in the dishwasher.
DairyQueen
Well-Known Member
It might work I suppose, folk in polling booths bricking it. That's a worry for me.
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
so murdochs come out for Team Yes. We all know he only plays for Team Murdoch really, but while pro indy people do have to share a political space with the piss stinking vampire can't we get a few weeks of wall to wall smearing against the No side, up to and including hacking their blowers and hiring grubby PI's to root through their bins/underwear drawer?
danny la rouge
I have a cheese grater in the dishwasher.
They're not called that any more. They're called Aye Pods.
Theisticle
Well-Known Member
A new YouGov poll of Scotland in tomorrow’s Sunday Times has YES nudging ahead in the referendum race. Courtesy of Tim Shipman at the Sunday Times, the topline figures excluding don’t knows are YES 51%(+4), NO 49%(-4).
The last month of Scottish polls from YouGov have been remarkable. Almost exactly a month ago, before the two debates, YouGov were showing a 22 point lead for the NO campaign, YES 39% NO 61%. This was fairly typical of their polls for most of the campaign, which had been floating at around about a 40-60 split. Since then three polls in a row have shown sharp movements towards the YES campaign, culminating in today’s poll giving the YES campaign a tiny lead.
51%-49% is, of course, well within the margin of error, the smallest lead you can get once rounded to integers. It doesn’t mean YES will necessarily win, and as ever it’s only one poll. There’s at least one other poll to come tonight, which may or may not echo the Yes lead. What will be fascinating to see is how a campaign that has, up to now, show a consistent NO lead for months changes in response to polls showing YES could actually win. Will people recoil from the risk of it actually happening? Will it enthuse people now it could be a reality? I’ll update later with the other polls.
UPDATE: There is also a new Panelbase poll out tonight, conducted for the Yes Scotland campaign. Throughout most of the campaign YouGov have tended to show some of the largest leads for NO, Panelbase have tended to show some of the smallest leads for NO. Given the movement towards YES in YouGov’s recent polls many people reasonably expected that Panelbase would be the ones to show YES ahead, in fact they still show a small lead for NO. Topline figures with changes from the last Panelbase poll in mid-August are YES 44%(+2), NO 48%(+2), Don’t know 8%(-4). Without don’t knows it’s YES 48%(nc), NO 52%(nc). In contrast to the collapsing NO position in YouGov, Panelbase are showing no real change – strange. We should have TNS and Survation polls in the coming week (and should be due an ICM at some point), so we’ll see what trends others pick up.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8957
The last month of Scottish polls from YouGov have been remarkable. Almost exactly a month ago, before the two debates, YouGov were showing a 22 point lead for the NO campaign, YES 39% NO 61%. This was fairly typical of their polls for most of the campaign, which had been floating at around about a 40-60 split. Since then three polls in a row have shown sharp movements towards the YES campaign, culminating in today’s poll giving the YES campaign a tiny lead.
51%-49% is, of course, well within the margin of error, the smallest lead you can get once rounded to integers. It doesn’t mean YES will necessarily win, and as ever it’s only one poll. There’s at least one other poll to come tonight, which may or may not echo the Yes lead. What will be fascinating to see is how a campaign that has, up to now, show a consistent NO lead for months changes in response to polls showing YES could actually win. Will people recoil from the risk of it actually happening? Will it enthuse people now it could be a reality? I’ll update later with the other polls.
UPDATE: There is also a new Panelbase poll out tonight, conducted for the Yes Scotland campaign. Throughout most of the campaign YouGov have tended to show some of the largest leads for NO, Panelbase have tended to show some of the smallest leads for NO. Given the movement towards YES in YouGov’s recent polls many people reasonably expected that Panelbase would be the ones to show YES ahead, in fact they still show a small lead for NO. Topline figures with changes from the last Panelbase poll in mid-August are YES 44%(+2), NO 48%(+2), Don’t know 8%(-4). Without don’t knows it’s YES 48%(nc), NO 52%(nc). In contrast to the collapsing NO position in YouGov, Panelbase are showing no real change – strange. We should have TNS and Survation polls in the coming week (and should be due an ICM at some point), so we’ll see what trends others pick up.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8957
Theisticle
Well-Known Member
As Mike Smithson points out... YouGov have a habit of hyping political events. E.g. 'Cleggmania'.
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/in...itical-earthquake-the-cleggasm-in-april-2010/
Some YouGov changes can be put down to methodology adjustments. It was not until mid-August that the firm began including 16- and 17-year-olds in its sample, a group allowed to vote for the first time. Also introduced was a special weighting to deal with the excess of respondents born outside Scotland which its surveys, for no obvious reason, seem to pick up. Given that they are generally hostile to the change, scaling down their views will help the yes percentage.
The next week should see a plethora of surveys from five or six firms. The ones I am looking out for are TNS-BMRB, expected on Wednesday, and Ipsos-MORI because their fieldwork is not carried out online. Attention is being paid to how polling samples are weighted to ensure balance. For general election polls, many firms ask how respondents voted in 2010 and use that as their reference point. For the referendum polls, the 2011 Holyrood election, in which the SNP did well, is being used by some pollsters, leading to the criticism that the views of SNP supporters could be being disproportionately inflated.
The challenge we have is that there are no precedents to fall back on. The only comparable example is the Quebec referendum in 1995 when the separatists went into polling day with leads of up to 7% – and lost.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...olls-yougov-over-60s-vote-is-vital?CMP=twt_gu
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/in...itical-earthquake-the-cleggasm-in-april-2010/
Some YouGov changes can be put down to methodology adjustments. It was not until mid-August that the firm began including 16- and 17-year-olds in its sample, a group allowed to vote for the first time. Also introduced was a special weighting to deal with the excess of respondents born outside Scotland which its surveys, for no obvious reason, seem to pick up. Given that they are generally hostile to the change, scaling down their views will help the yes percentage.
The next week should see a plethora of surveys from five or six firms. The ones I am looking out for are TNS-BMRB, expected on Wednesday, and Ipsos-MORI because their fieldwork is not carried out online. Attention is being paid to how polling samples are weighted to ensure balance. For general election polls, many firms ask how respondents voted in 2010 and use that as their reference point. For the referendum polls, the 2011 Holyrood election, in which the SNP did well, is being used by some pollsters, leading to the criticism that the views of SNP supporters could be being disproportionately inflated.
The challenge we have is that there are no precedents to fall back on. The only comparable example is the Quebec referendum in 1995 when the separatists went into polling day with leads of up to 7% – and lost.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...olls-yougov-over-60s-vote-is-vital?CMP=twt_gu
iamwithnail
Well-Known Member
A lot of it boils down to - when you're running polls like this, they're based on assumptions of turnout, and if turnout is significantly above that, then it's basically anyone's guess - especially with a campaign like this where it's been framed as progressive/Yes v conservative/No (small c conservative). The higher turnout should favour yes, just as lower turnout should favour No, as it'll be just the usual suspects voting. Think the main thing for this is to look at the trend, which is definitely closing. S'gonna be tight. I've gone from assuming it's gonna be no, to... maybe, just...maybe, no, don't even think about it in case you jinx it. (And all of this after being anti-independence most of my life, too, until the last 4-5 years.)
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