The Scottish independence referendum polling thread

[danny la rouge]

Any chance of a precis? Am at work and they don't like streaming media

YouGov guy says: "we just don't know".

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Maybe that it's undecideds who have opted to go the take it to the polling station route.

Makes sense, if you a truly undecided you'll be more likely to wait until you've heard all the arguments/begging/threats etc. before making your choice.

 

[treelover]

Scottish independence: 'It's all going hell for leather' – video

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...tish-independence-political-reformation-video

Good John Harris Guardian video, he describes what is happening in Scotland as a "political reformation" but is he right?

 

[ddraig]

hmm, what do you think?

 

[Quartz]

Fuck it, you bastards better vote Yes as the party won't be one to be missed.

We'll have a party either way; why let all that preparation go to waste? Besides, whichever side wins, it will be a triumph of democracy. It's just a pity that Friday isn't a public holiday.

Did I mention that I'm just back from France with a large quantity of Champagne?

 

[butchersapron]

We'll have a party either way; why let all that preparation go to waste? Besides, whichever side wins, it will be a triumph of democracy. It's just a pity that Friday isn't a public holiday.

Did I mention that I'm just back from France with a large quantity of Champagne?

If it was a triumph of democracy how come no popular input or participation into what questions were asked was allowed?

 

[butchersapron]

Panelbase now report 52/48 to no. Four in a row. They added an extra question forcing undecides into one side or the other which produced 53/47 for NO.

with DKs
Yes - 45%
No - 50%
DK 5%

The YG poll tonight is 3 times the normal size of all the others.

 

[articul8]

How do they select their samples - are they weighted to reflect people newly on the electoral register for this vote?

 

[iamwithnail]

In theory, but fundamentally no, in this case. There's no calibrating question of "How did you vote last time?" for obvious reasons - you'd compare that against the British Electoral Survey results and go from there to reweight, but you can't with this, and 16-17 year olds are hard to reach as well - don't stop in the street, tend not to have landlines, etc.

 

[butchersapron]

How do they select their samples - are they weighted to reflect people newly on the electoral register for this vote?

To represent the voting population for the specific vote. Maybe these prefesionals didn't bother to think about that. How would you weight them btw - on what basis? Given they are at best 1.5% of the vote and shown to be split/ pro NO slightly, i don't see it mattering anyway.

 

[belboid]

To represent the voting population for the specific vote. Maybe these prefesionals didn't bother to think about that. How would you weight them btw - on what basis? Given they are at best 1.5% of the vote and shown to be split/ pro NO slightly, i don't see it mattering anyway.

1.5%?? It's a lot higher than that, it's not just the 16/17 year olds, or even they under 21s (new to the role since the 2001 holyrood election), it's the.... God knows how many, who never bothered to register before cos parliamentary elections are shite. I'd have thought they be more likely to be Yes's

 

[butchersapron]

1.5%?? It's a lot higher than that, it's not just the 16/17 year olds, or even they under 21s (new to the role since the 2001 holyrood election), it's the.... God knows how many, who never bothered to register before cos parliamentary elections are shite. I'd have thought they be more likely to be Yes's

Sorry - i thought a8 asked about 16-18 year olds. Not all those new to the register.

 

[iamwithnail]

Isn't voter registration way north of 90%? There were 4.1 million registered to vote last time I looked, that's most of the eligible population.

 

[belboid]

Sorry - i thought a8 asked about 16-18 year olds. Not all those new to the register.

He might have been (tho I'd have still thought they were more likely to be Yes's, I haven't seen any age related breakdowns for ages), but it's the other ones who are more interesting, imo.

 

[butchersapron]

Isn't voter registration way north of 90%? There were 4.1 million registered to vote last time I looked, that's most of the eligible population.

That's an extra 300 000 voters since the GE if that 4.1 million fig is correct.

 

[butchersapron]

He might have been (tho I'd have still thought they were more likely to be Yes's, I haven't seen any age related breakdowns for ages), but it's the other ones who are more interesting, imo.

I expected the same but checked it out and posted the results on here a month or so back. Yes, it's this last block who are making me thing YES are still well in this.

 

[iamwithnail]

That's an extra 300 000 voters since the GE if that 4.1 million fig is correct.

Astonishingly, that was apparently 6 months ago. Wow, hadn't realised that.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26845094

Edit: 4.2 million odd, apparently. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29235191

 

[butchersapron]

Astonishingly, that was apparently 6 months ago. Wow, hadn't realised that.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26845094

Just to clarify - registration now is around 4.45 million. So 300 000 more since then.

 

[iamwithnail]

Sorry, edited my post in between times - final figure from that article is 4.285m, but either way, it's very up, especially in the context where people are highly motivated to go out and ACTUALLY vote.

 

[frogwoman]

what's the turnout gonna be? pretty high I'd have thought?

 

[Quartz]

The increase in electorate is in part due to the reduced voting age, isn't it?

 

[butchersapron]

The increase in electorate is in part due to the reduced voting age, isn't it?

More people can register to vote yes. But that, on its own, doesn't increase the % registered.

 

[iamwithnail]

what's the turnout gonna be? pretty high I'd have thought?

Expected 80%+, apparently. Councils are gearing up for more people than normal.

New kids eligible to vote was 122,000 apparently.

 

[Quartz]

what's the turnout gonna be? pretty high I'd have thought?

It's going to be huge. I only know of one person who's not going to vote and that's because he's emigrating.

 

[ddraig]

what's the turnout gonna be? pretty high I'd have thought?

80% +

 

[DotCommunist]

when did you ever see something of that level turnout for a GE?

 

[iamwithnail]

1950 and 1951 was the last time, 83.6% and 81% respectively. I'm mildly terrified I had that to hand.

 

[danny la rouge]

The increase in electorate is in part due to the reduced voting age, isn't it?

The total percentage that can register remains 100.

 

[butchersapron]

when did you ever see something of that level turnout for a GE?

1951. Means nothing on its own unless you want to endorse this great democracy of ours and how things would only be better if people engaged blah blah

 

[DotCommunist]

1951. Means nothing on its own unless you want to endorse this great democracy of ours and how things would only be better if people engaged blah blah

of course, but its still remarkable of itself. Highest vote turnout in what- 60 odd years.