The Scottish independence referendum polling thread

[butchersapron]

1950 and 1951 was the last time, 83.6% and 81% respectively. I'm mildly terrified I had that to hand.

Two tory govts for the price of one.

 

[butchersapron]

Ipsos MORI

YES 49
NO 51

With Dks

YES - 47%
NO - 49%
(DK) - 5%

 

[iamwithnail]

I even have a graph I made for something else, look. Percentage turnout (scale not shown cause I'm an idiot), against number of people not voting/not voting for Lab/Con.

 

[DrRingDing]

Anybody seen any stats on the demographics of the DKs?

 

[butchersapron]

Anybody seen any stats on the demographics of the DKs?

Look on any of the data presented by the polling companies. They usually give a breakdown. i.e

 

[butchersapron]

A poll - of sorts:

A poll of over 3,000 Scottish people carried out by YouGov for BuzzFeed reveals how almost half of No voters have felt personally threatened by the opposition during Scotland’s independence referendum campaign.

Meanwhile half of No voters feel they have not been able to speak freely about their views throughout the campaign.

 

[Sue]

A poll - of sorts:

This is interesting.

'The Scottish Police Federation has issued a statement accusing the media and no campaigners of exaggerating the extent of aggression deployed during the Scottish referendum campaign.

Brian Docherty, the chairman of the federation, said in the statement: "The referendum debate has been robust but overwhelmingly good-natured.

"It was inevitable that the closer we came to 18 September passions would increase but that does not justify the exaggerated rhetoric that is being deployed with increased frequency. Any neutral observer could be led to believe Scotland is on the verge of societal disintegration, yet nothing could be further from the truth."'

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...-condemns-no-campaign-exaggerating-aggression

 

[butchersapron]

This is interesting.

'The Scottish Police Federation has issued a statement accusing the media and no campaigners of exaggerating the extent of aggression deployed during the Scottish referendum campaign.

Brian Docherty, the chairman of the federation, said in the statement: "The referendum debate has been robust but overwhelmingly good-natured.

"It was inevitable that the closer we came to 18 September passions would increase but that does not justify the exaggerated rhetoric that is being deployed with increased frequency. Any neutral observer could be led to believe Scotland is on the verge of societal disintegration, yet nothing could be further from the truth."'

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...-condemns-no-campaign-exaggerating-aggression

It doesn't mention either YES or NO. The statement just doesn't say that. That's the second time today that the guardian have openly lied about what the statement says.

And this poll is of ordinary people on the same representative basis as their other polls i believe - not of NO campaigners.

 

[Sue]

It doesn't mention either YES or NO. The statement just doesn't say that. That's the second time today that the guardian have openly lied about what the statement says.

And this poll is of ordinary people on the same representative basis as their other polls i believe - not of NO campaigners.

Interesting that they've released a statement about this at all is what I meant.

And yes, the Guardian's been as rubbish as the rest of the media on all this.

 

[butchersapron]

Interesting that they've released a statement about this at all is what I meant.

And yes, the Guardian's been as rubbish as the rest of the media on all this.

They've been rubbish here for YES though. Twice. I expect the yougov thing will be trashed later.

 

[Coolfonz]

Coolfonz - I just think those are pretty depressing posts. If you're not interested in politics, fine. I will never see the establishment (and maybe even globally) in this country so shaken. Quite frankly, a yes vote would be a massive force of good across Britain. Plenty of groups on Yes that I have seen campaign without saltires. For you to equate the nationalism of the Yes campaign and the very real nationalism of Westminster (that results in war) is just depressing. If you can't even bring yourself to support the Scottish left (SYRIZA have), I have no idea what people will do in the future to give you any hope that we will see a politically conscious proletariat (i.e, poor people taking to the streets and discussing pensions, benefits, corporate power). A no vote will return to the status quo, where we celebrate the odd strike in London that we hear about on libcom.

Gobbledygook.

Only 70,000 more Scots voted SNP last time out than voted Tory. As for Scots not participating in British war and empire...er...?

Not everyone on the Scottish left - who it appears you are a spokesperson for - supports the yes vote. And the Scottish left? Who are they? The SNP? Labour?

As for "a politically conscious proletariat (i.e, poor people taking to the streets and discussing pensions, benefits, corporate power)." I really don't have a reply to that kind of bad shit, other than I'm sure the poor are grateful to you for raising their moribund collective consciousness while you swap one elite for another.

 

[butchersapron]

Early reports i've heard from postal ballots seem baffled at only a 70-75% return rate. Maybe that it's undecideds who have opted to go the take it to the polling station route.

Quoting myself but so what: Edinburgh reports 90% returnage.

 

[Celyn]

Gobbledygook.

Only 70,000 more Scots voted SNP last time out than voted Tory....

in a UK General Election for Westminster, possibly a lot voting Labour in the hope of keeping Tories out.

 

[butchersapron]

Gobbledygook.

Only 70,000 more Scots voted SNP last time out than voted Tory. As for Scots not participating in British war and empire...er...?

Not everyone on the Scottish left - who it appears you are a spokesperson for - supports the yes vote. And the Scottish left? Who are they? The SNP? Labour?

As for "a politically conscious proletariat (i.e, poor people taking to the streets and discussing pensions, benefits, corporate power)." I really don't have a reply to that kind of bad shit, other than I'm sure the poor are grateful to you for raising their moribund collective consciousness while you swap one elite for another.

if the turnout is over 80% - and it will be - the winning margin is predicted to be 68 000 and under. Going down with each higher turnout %.

 

[JTG]

in a UK General Election for Westminster, possibly a lot voting Labour in the hope of keeping Tories out.

IIRC Scotland swung to Labour in 2010, a year before the SNP Holyrood landslide. They aint daft, they can distinguish between votes

 

[articul8]

I expected the same but checked it out and posted the results on here a month or so back. Yes, it's this last block who are making me thing YES are still well in this.

That's who I was asking about-
Is this reflected in polling sampled?

 

[butchersapron]

That's who I was asking about-
Is this reflected in polling sampled?

Yes, that who/how i checked. That age is NO, up until 24 - then it starts to move towards YES as you go up the age scale until after you hit mid 50s and swings back to NO as you get older. Similar across all pollsters. The middle part is people who grew up under thatcher.

 

[articul8]

Yes, that who/how i checked. That age is NO, up until 24 - then it starts to move towards YES as you go up the age scale until after you hit late 50s/60s. Similar across all pollsters.

No I meant the newly registered

 

[butchersapron]

No I meant the newly registered

So why did you say yes to me when i said i was talking about the 16-18 age group?

 

[articul8]

I didn't?

 

[butchersapron]

And people aren't noted as newly registered - they're noted as didn't vote/can't recall and reallocated on various basis - YG do place of birth for some reason.

 

[Celyn]

IIRC Scotland swung to Labour in 2010, a year before the SNP Holyrood landslide. They aint daft, they can distinguish between votes

I think we are both saying the same thing.

 

[butchersapron]

I didn't?

Yes you did - here. It doesn't matter now though.

 

[JTG]

I think we are both saying the same thing.

Yes, I was backing you up!

 

[butchersapron]

Quoting myself but so what: Edinburgh reports 90% returnage.

Andagain, electoral commission say this is only 5% higher than 2010 GE in Scotland nationally. So slight rise not massive rise. And other turnouts i first mentioned around 70-75% are actually lower than 2010 GE.

 

[Celyn]

Yes, I was backing you up!

Ah. I am an easily confused Celyn, and I realised I had not specified that I meant the Westminster election.

 

[articul8]

Deleted

 

[articul8]

How do they select their samples - are they weighted to reflect people newly on the electoral register for this vote?

This was my question - nothing about age

 

[articul8]

And people aren't noted as newly registered - they're noted as didn't vote/can't recall and reallocated on various basis - YG do place of birth for some reason.

But is the original sample drawn from the existing register and so missing potentially a newly registered section of the electorate?

 

[butchersapron]

But is the original sample drawn from the existing register and so missing potentially a newly registered section of the electorate?

They not drawn from the register very often - they are randomised phone numbers or self-selecting panels then narrowed down to be representative.

stop look for a deus ex machina.