The Scottish independence referendum polling thread

[paolo]

Anybody seen any stats on the demographics of the DKs?

Very pertinent question - I'd be very interested to read more on this (not seen anything on it myself).

 

[butchersapron]

Last knockings at ten - one from survation and one from YG - the latter a super poll, 3 times as many respondents as normal. Survation conducted today with people responding up to 9pm,

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

Last knockings at ten - one from survation and one from YG - the latter a super poll, 3 times as many respondents as normal.

Have you heard if anyone is doing exit polling tomorrow?

 

[redsquirrel]

Have you heard if anyone is doing exit polling tomorrow?

IIRC Anthony Wells (UKPolling Report) said that there wouldn't be any exit polling.

EDIT:Link

 

[butchersapron]

Have you heard if anyone is doing exit polling tomorrow?

Haven't heard - will keep ears open and report though.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

IIRC Anthony Wells (UKPolling Report) said that there wouldn't be any exit polling.

Gah, damned inconsiderate of them.

 

[8ball]

Gah, damned inconsiderate of them.

They'll be counting them soon enough.

 

[butchersapron]

YG

YES - 48%
NO - 52%

Key:

Some 4 per cent of "Yes" voters say there is a chance they may change their mind, 2 per cent of "No voters."

 

[butchersapron]

Survation:

YES (47%)
NO (53%)

 

[treelover]

My colleague Polly Curtis sends this clip of yes campaigners chanting “yes we can” towards the BBC journalist brought in to replace political editor Nick Robinson after he was booed and heckled.

Apparently Nick Robinson had to leave a Yes rally after he was booed and heckled, from guardian update

 

[butchersapron]

Apparently Nick Robison had to leave a Yes rally after he was booed and heckled, from guardian update

This was the polling thread. Two were just published. This stuff did my head in over the last week - it's not like there aren't other referendum threads to discuss general stuff on.

 

[treelover]

What an atmosphere!

 

[Lo Siento.]

YG

YES - 48%
NO - 52%

Key:

Some 4 per cent of "Yes" voters say there is a chance they may change their mind, 2 per cent of "No voters."

Survation:

YES (47%)
NO (53%)

Any change in these?

 

[butchersapron]

Any change in these?

Survation are No -1/Yes +1
YG is n/c - but on a much larger basis.

 

[JTG]

The polls have converged to a remarkable extent. Read some stuff earlier about IPSOS Mori asking a 'squeeze' question for DKs and this making little difference. Also that high turnout makes it easier to poll.

Makes me think it's a narrow 'no' unless there's something they've all missed

 

[butchersapron]

The polls have converged to a remarkable extent. Read some stuff earlier about IPSOS Mori asking a 'squeeze' question for DKs and this making little difference. Also that high turnout makes it easier to poll.

Makes me think it's a narrow 'no' unless there's something they've all missed

The squeeze (panelbase btw) question pushed no up one and Yes down 1.

 

[JTG]

Cheers going by memory! DKs were nearly even anyway so no sign of an outcome swinging hidden vote

 

[DairyQueen]

Gobbledygook.

Only 70,000 more Scots voted SNP last time out than voted Tory. As for Scots not participating in British war and empire...er...?

Not everyone on the Scottish left - who it appears you are a spokesperson for - supports the yes vote. And the Scottish left? Who are they? The SNP? Labour?

As for "a politically conscious proletariat (i.e, poor people taking to the streets and discussing pensions, benefits, corporate power)." I really don't have a reply to that kind of bad shit, other than I'm sure the poor are grateful to you for raising their moribund collective consciousness while you swap one elite for another.

What has the Tory vote got to do with anything, they're nearly all voting no? I have no idea what point you are making.

Left parties? Greens, SSP, and Solidarity. The only radical left parties that have ever had representation above councils. I suppose you could include the Fife Communist in there if you want if you included councillors.

I am sure these people could not give a fuck, when they are the ones getting involved, demonstrating against power, being harassed by the press and I have done nearly nothing in this campaign.

You simply don't know what is going on up here, what has been going on in Scotland. It seems a mix of wikipedia (this tory vote fetish) and Fleet Street newspapers (this nationalism thing).

Again, if you are saying you should not get hopeful about what has happened in the campaign, I am not sure what sort of sequence of events could give you any hope for the future. You should have come up here for a couple days.

 

[butchersapron]

This has to be last call: from opinium, scots outside of scotland:

Yes - 46
No - 54

 

[weepiper]

This has to be last call: from opinium, scots outside of scotland:

Yes - 46
No - 54

...who don't have a vote

 

[butchersapron]

Correct. But still a poll.

 

[butchersapron]

There is another poll anyway - hurrah! Ipsos MORI in the evening standard tmw. So prob fieldwork today.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

There is another poll anyway - hurrah! Ipsos MORI in the evening standard tmw. So prob fieldwork today.

Publishing while the polls are open? It can't be a Scots survey then, surely?

 

[DairyQueen]

Ipsos MORI had 49-51.

 

[butchersapron]

Ipsos MORI had 49-51.

Yep, the one today did. Not the one tmw.

 

[8ball]

Ipsos MORI had 49-51.

My knowledge of human nature tells me that fear almost always trounces hope.

 

[butchersapron]

Publishing while the polls are open? It can't be a Scots survey then, surely?

I think they can publish up until - 7am and they'll have out before that i think. Unless they can publish outside of scotland. But i'd be surprised if they could.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

I think they can publish up until - 7am and they'll have out before that i think. Unless they can publish outside of scotland. But i'd be surprised if they could.

At any rate, seems an odd thing for a London freesheet to pay for.

 

[butchersapron]

Do you know, i can't work out why this poll tmw is allowed - it must be though.Wells says:

it’s just to do with when the Evening Standard is published, at around lunchtime, hence other paper’s carry final polls that come out eve-of-election, the one for the Standard comes out on election morning itself. It also allows MORI to do fieldwork that includes this evening, later than other pollsters.

I had always understood that polling itself on day of election was fine (hence exit polls) but not publishing.

 

[Belushi]

I don't recall the Standard having polls on election day