The Scottish independence referendum polling thread

[andysays]

That mysterious Ipsos-mori poll today has:

Yes - 47
No - 53

edit: with DKs

Yes : 30%
No : 46%
DK: 24%

Blimey

That's very mysterious - how do they reconcile those two sets of figures, which appear to contradict each other?

ETA: by which I mean, according to the second set of figures, among those expressing a position, No is outpolling Yes by roughly 3 to 2, but according to the first set it's very much closer

 

[krink]

Has anyone got stats on how age is relating to voting intentions? I've tried to follow all the threads on this but I haven't seen anything. I may have missed it. I have a feeling older voters will tend towards no more than young'uns.

 

[butchersapron]

I think that second set are renegade figs.

 

[andysays]

I think that second set are renegade figs.

Sorry, I've edited my post while you were replying.

What I mean is that the two sets of figures don't agree with each other, however accurately or otherwise they reflect the reality of people's intentions

 

[andysays]

Are they trying to factor in how DKs might be leaning, even if they're not yet quite sure? I vaguely remember something about that in one of these threads, but might be making it up...

 

[butchersapron]

Has anyone got stats on how age is relating to voting intentions? I've tried to follow all the threads on this but I haven't seen anything. I may have missed it. I have a feeling older voters will tend towards no more than young'uns.

16-24 tending slighty to no, stronger NO with 16-18, then after 24 support for YES, getting strongest in late 30s-54ish group, then slide back to NO, with over 65 strongest for NO.

 

[butchersapron]

Are they trying to factor in how DKs might be leaning, even if they're not yet quite sure? I vaguely remember something about that in one of these threads, but might be making it up...

I think they may not be their figures for voting intention. In fact they are not, they are who people think will win, not who they are voting for.

 

[Monkeygrinder's Organ]

16-24 tending slighty to no, stronger NO with 16-18, then after 24 support for YES, getting strongest in late 30s-54ish group, then slide back to NO, with over 65 strongest for NO.

Who pushed for 16-17 year olds to be allowed to vote, out of interest?

 

[butchersapron]

Who pushed for 16-17 year olds to be allowed to vote, out of interest?

Salmond. Scottish executives decision.

 

[andysays]

I think they may not be their figures for voting intention. In fact they are not, they are who people think will win, not who they are voting for.

OK, that makes sense (sort of).

Maybe someone should start another new thread for "polls of how the Scottish electorate think the vote will go down, rather than how they actually intend to vote"

 

[Wilf]

I suspect the fact there will be a relatively hight turnout (well, if there is) makes all these 'no to win by 4% or so' predictions more likely to be true. Given the seeming solidity of the No vote, only route forYes to win would be a more modest turnout, 16-18s not actually voting, that kind of thing. Or, to put it another way, there doesn't seem to be anything good for Yes in the majority of polls over the last week, nor are there any last minute trends that are going their way.

 

[butchersapron]

OK, that makes sense (sort of).

Maybe someone should start another new thread for "polls of how the Scottish electorate think the vote will go down, rather than how they actually intend to vote"

How can it 'make sense (sort of)'? That's the actual real reason. The 2nd set are figures for who the respondents think will win. The first for who they voted for.

 

[Wilf]

OK, that makes sense (sort of).

Maybe someone should start another new thread for "polls of how the Scottish electorate think the vote will go down, rather than how they actually intend to vote"

In a way, the public awareness of it being very close is very much in play and will itself affect turnout.

 

[andysays]

How can it 'make sense (sort of)'? That's the actual real reason. The 2nd set are figures for who the respondents think will win. The first for who they voted for.

just to be clear, my "sort of" wasn't referring to understanding the difference between what the two sets of figures refer to (or that I only sort of believe you when you say that's what they represent), it means "it makes sense to me, as an instant reaction and without thinking about it a great deal, that the response to the question "who do you think will win?" would break down along those lines suggested"

 

[andysays]

In a way, the public awareness of it being very close is very much in play and will itself affect turnout.

Exactly

 

[Coolfonz]

What has the Tory vote got to do with anything, they're nearly all voting no? I have no idea what point you are making.

Left parties? Greens, SSP, and Solidarity. The only radical left parties that have ever had representation above councils. I suppose you could include the Fife Communist in there if you want if you included councillors.

I am sure these people could not give a fuck, when they are the ones getting involved, demonstrating against power, being harassed by the press and I have done nearly nothing in this campaign.

You simply don't know what is going on up here, what has been going on in Scotland. It seems a mix of wikipedia (this tory vote fetish) and Fleet Street newspapers (this nationalism thing).

Again, if you are saying you should not get hopeful about what has happened in the campaign, I am not sure what sort of sequence of events could give you any hope for the future. You should have come up here for a couple days.

I'm pointing out Scotland isn't a left wing paradise - the Tories don't do as badly as people think, they get done over by fptp - and isn't going to be some sort of left wing paradise (sadly). In fact not even everyone on the left is up for it. Even George Galloway is against it (I think).

Most of the supporters of `Yes` are on the right, a good chunk of Labour voters, the SNP (tax cuts for business anyone?)

So I'm not hopeful, just as I'm not in Catalunya. It all seems a bit seventeenth century and it is primarily a fall out of the financial crisis, just again as in Catalunya.

We have a whole host of major events happening, immigration rises, 'austerity', regionalism etc etc etc and they come from the financial crisis and the failure of the economic system. Something Scotland has not and won't address, instead it wants to retreat behind its borders. Like Catalunya it's a kind of modern protectionism.

Also you used the word 'proliteriat' which makes me feel a bit ill.

Having said that how does one get a Scottish passport? I've got one Scottish grandmother do I qualify for dual nat?

 

[Sue]

I'm pointing out Scotland isn't a left wing paradise - the Tories don't do as badly as people think, they get done over by fptp - and isn't going to be some sort of left wing paradise (sadly). In fact not even everyone on the left is up for it. Even George Galloway is against it (I think).

Most of the supporters of `Yes` are on the right, a good chunk of Labour voters, the SNP (tax cuts for business anyone?)

So I'm not hopeful, just as I'm not in Catalunya. It all seems a bit seventeenth century and it is primarily a fall out of the financial crisis, just again as in Catalunya.

We have a whole host of major events happening, immigration rises, 'austerity', regionalism etc etc etc and they come from the financial crisis and the failure of the economic system. Something Scotland has not and won't address, instead it wants to retreat behind its borders. Like Catalunya it's a kind of modern protectionism.

Also you used the word 'proliteriat' which makes me feel a bit ill.

Having said that how does one get a Scottish passport? I've got one Scottish grandmother do I qualify for dual nat?

Well thanks for explaining all this stuff about Scotland and the referendum. Obviously Scottish people are far too stupid to be aware of all this so it's handy you popped by. (I for one had no idea what is was all about -- too busy sitting here eating my cereal and that.)

You may care to look at the two year old, 180 whatever page thread in the Scotland forum where your points and more have have been debated at length.

 

[JTG]

I'm pointing out Scotland isn't a left wing paradise - the Tories don't do as badly as people think, they get done over by fptp - and isn't going to be some sort of left wing paradise (sadly). In fact not even everyone on the left is up for it. Even George Galloway is against it (I think).

Most of the supporters of `Yes` are on the right, a good chunk of Labour voters, the SNP (tax cuts for business anyone?)

So I'm not hopeful, just as I'm not in Catalunya. It all seems a bit seventeenth century and it is primarily a fall out of the financial crisis, just again as in Catalunya.

We have a whole host of major events happening, immigration rises, 'austerity', regionalism etc etc etc and they come from the financial crisis and the failure of the economic system. Something Scotland has not and won't address, instead it wants to retreat behind its borders. Like Catalunya it's a kind of modern protectionism.

Also you used the word 'proliteriat' which makes me feel a bit ill.

Having said that how does one get a Scottish passport? I've got one Scottish grandmother do I qualify for dual nat?

What a load of ill informed shit

 

[Wilf]

I know the journos have run out of things to say, but we've reached a pretty silly point when you've got an article describing the lack of exit polls as a 'democratic deficit':

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/18/scottish-vote-no-exit-poll-democratic-deficit

 

[ddraig]

ERS view from being out and about at polling stations
http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/blog/something-in-the-air

 

[belboid]

just looking at the last couple of polls with full tabs available, its interesting that up to a quarter of those who voted SNP in the last Holyrood elections say they'll vote No.

 

[articul8]

Don't believe ERS, they come out with any old shite

 

[kebabking]

just looking at the last couple of polls with full tabs available, its interesting that up to a quarter of those who voted SNP in the last Holyrood elections say they'll vote No.

i'm not surprised - since about 2006(ish) the SNP have been seen as being fairly competant at 'doing government' (in stark contrast to Labour and the LD's, and the Tories just don't exist as a sensible option) regardless of whether people like their big-picture politics - i've voted SNP both in council and SG elections despite being proper unionist, because while i disagreed with them on the national question, i needed the schools, hospitals and roads to work in the meantime, and i never had a problem with the idea of having a referendum.

now, i didn't think that referendum would be this close, mainly because i couldn't have imagined the 'no' campaign to be so politically inept and unimaginative...

i knew quite a few people who voted SNP while being unionist for exactly the same reason - we could vote against them in a referendum, but apart from that they were relatively competant at being in charge of stuff, they made public services work (broadly), and their other policies weren't particularly objectionable.

 

[TheHoodedClaw]

YouGov re-poll (not an exit poll) lands at YES 46%, NO 54%

 

[redsquirrel]

So a shade more NO than the last few polls but not that much difference.

 

[free spirit]

not a poll as such, but an interesting twitter trending graph through the day, showing about 3:! in favour of Yes comments on twitter, with most of the no's coming from England.

 

[ferrelhadley]

not a poll as such, but an interesting twitter trending graph through the day, showing about 3:! in favour of Yes comments on twitter, with most of the no's coming from England.

Means little, the No voters are really not tweeters.

 

[William of Walworth]

not a poll as such, but an interesting twitter trending graph through the day, showing about 3:! in favour of Yes comments on twitter, with most of the no's coming from England.

I saw that. Fascinating, but revealing the sqaure root of fuck all in prediction terms ...

 

[free spirit]

Means little, the No voters are really not tweeters.

It's definitely not representative, but I think it is extremely interesting as it demonstrates the absolute dominance the yes campaign has over social media, and if it is a no vote in the end, it will also demonstrate the limitations social media has, and the continuing power and influence of the mainstream media.

big IF at the moment mind.

 

[butchersapron]

Has anyone got stats on how age is relating to voting intentions? I've tried to follow all the threads on this but I haven't seen anything. I may have missed it. I have a feeling older voters will tend towards no more than young'uns.

16-24 tending slighty to no, stronger NO with 16-18, then after 24 support for YES, getting strongest in late 30s-54ish group, then slide back to NO, with over 65 strongest for NO.

And, according to Ashcroft's 2000+ post election poll, this is how that panned out - note the 16/17 year olds moving over to YES in large numbers over the last week, previously NO had a lead there - rest, as expected age wise. Note majority labour support (from 2001 at least, would have been interesting to see 2010 voting as well given the split vote phenomenon) for NO: