The Scottish independence referendum polling thread

[treelover]

http://www.itv.com/news/update/2014-09-16/miliband-heckled-on-walkabout-in-edinburgh/

can't embed it

 

[treelover]

'Chaotic scenes inside the Mall.

 

[butchersapron]

Poll #1 of tonights 3:

ICM
YES - 48 %(+3)
NO - 52% (-3)

With DK
YES - 41%
NO - 45%
(DK) - 14%

 

[treelover]

Anyone willing to call the vote yet?, I will go with, perhaps sadly, 48Y, 52N.

 

[treelover]

That so many Scots, lambasted from all quarters as fools, frauds and ingrates, have refused to be bullied is itself a political triumph. If they vote for independence, they will do so in defiance not only of the Westminster consensus but also of its enforcers: the detached, complacent people who claim to speak on their behalf.

http://www.theguardian.com/commenti...ted-people-scotland-journalists?commentpage=3

But still I think the Yes Scots all win, as Monbiots asserts...

btw, haven't been on the DM comments, but I hear its a lot of racist bile against the Scots.

 

[butchersapron]

Poll #2:
Opinium

Yes: 48
No: 52

With DKs
YES - 45%
NO - 49%
(DK) - 6%

 

[JTG]

Poll #1 of tonights 3:

ICM
YES - 48 %(+3)
NO - 52% (-3)

With DK
YES - 41%
NO - 45%
(DK) - 14%

Telephone/web/F2F?

 

[DairyQueen]

Survation's final poll tonight.

YouGov and Panelbase(I think) tomorrow.

 

[DairyQueen]

Telephone/web/F2F?

Online.

 

[butchersapron]

Telephone/web/F2F?

DK yet.

 

[belboid]

Telephone/web/F2F?

it doesnt really matter, as long as its consistent. may be interesting afterwards, to see if any method were more accurate, but for now....

interesting piece from Wells about whether all the polls might be wrong - http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8987

 

[butchersapron]

it doesnt really matter, as long as its consistent. may be interesting afterwards, to see if any method were more accurate, but for now....

interesting piece from Wells about whether all the polls might be wrong - http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8988

Take it you mean this?

 

[treelover]

Btw, I hope progressive film makers make a documentary about the grassroots reponse to Indyref and show it across rUk, it could inspire many.

 

[JTG]

it doesnt really matter, as long as its consistent. may be interesting afterwards, to see if any method were more accurate, but for now....

interesting piece from Wells about whether all the polls might be wrong - http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8988

I'm interested in the DKs for spoddy reasons so method is relevant. You're correct though

 

[belboid]

Take it you mean this?

No! corrected it now

 

[treelover]

Already, the Juntas devo max offer is unravelling, loads of Westminster tories saying no chance!, how did they get away with it?

 

[Frankie Jack]

The three gobs saying what their arses, back in Wastemonster, won't back up.

 

[belboid]

Already, the Juntas devo max offer is unravelling, loads of Westminster tories saying no chance!, how did they get away with it?

those tories wont matter, labour will ensure it gets through

 

[butchersapron]

Poll #3:

Survation:

Yes - 48
No - 52

With DKs
YES - 44%
NO - 48%
(DK) - 8%

 

[treelover]

Salmond came across well being interviewed by Dimblebore.

 

[DairyQueen]

Every poll calling it 48% for yes. With Don't Knows it is slightly lower.

 

[JTG]

OK, so DKs are more numerous than the gap between the two sides - so how those break (or whether they're not really DKs, just shy of admitting anything in interview) is still important.

Other factors: GOTV operations of both campaigns, the weather and whether all the pollsters may or may not have missed something crucial. Oh, and something mental happening in the last day of the campaign.

 

[friedaweed]

Scotland

Whatever happens you have won

 

[weepiper]

All three polls show an increase for Yes despite Westminster throwing everything they've got at us over the last few days.

 

[killer b]

'despite'?

 

[weepiper]

 

[iamwithnail]

I thought they were back to 52/48 for No, wasn't it running at 50/50 51/49 before (apart from the Sunday Times/ICM one?)

 

[weepiper]

Previous comparable ICM poll: 45% Yes 55% No
Survation: 46% Yes 54% No
Opinium: 47% Yes 53% No

 

[belboid]

I thought they were back to 52/48 for No, wasn't it running at 50/50 51/49 before (apart from the Sunday Times/ICM one?)

two show a narrowing of the lead from 6% to 4%, the other shows a swing to Yes of either 1% or 5% (depending which of their polls you compare it to)

 

[ferrelhadley]

Just how big a hole in the rUKs balance of trade would excluding ayeScotland have? If the pound falls what will that do to the hot money that has rushed to park itself in London? Is there a big enough risk to the system to force rUK into a Poundzone with ayeScotland?

And finally if there is a "poundzone" can I be the first to name it "Poundland"?