Osborne will ride it out so long as he retains Cameron's confidence. If he doesn't he's toast. Right now his future as Chancellor depends on how much credence we can give to reports of a rift between them - and to Cameron's statement that he 'absolutely' has confidence in him. In the longer run this certainly knocks a hole in his aspiration to succeed Cameron as leader, although whether it's a big enough hole to sink him completely is another matter.
The grand tory 'civil war' thread
- Thread starter brogdale
- Start date
Osborne will ride it out so long as he retains Cameron's confidence. If he doesn't he's toast. Right now his future as Chancellor depends on how much credence we can give to reports of a rift between them - and to Cameron's statement that he 'absolutely' has confidence in him. In the longer run this certainly knocks a hole in his aspiration to succeed Cameron as leader, although whether it's a big enough hole to sink him completely is another matter.
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
I doubt that this will be anything like the end of the government but the austerity narrative has never looked as weak as it has now and that really is the ultimate underpinning and only moral justification of the government's behaviour since 2010.
gosub
~#
They are certainly trying that, just had a lacky on BBC 1 o'clock, explaining well it was for next year anyway so they can park it til October at which point a Works and Pensions Minister can look at what else they might cut instead. Its like the actual criticisms washed over them completely: that ring fencing within the department means it be the most vulnerable getting kicked and doing that while giving middle managers tax breaks ain't carey sharey/compassionate conservatism.
Toast.
Kid_Eternity
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
I'm going to lay a bet on Labour winning the next election (under Corbyn).
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
How much?
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
I rekon Cameron and Osbourne will stay in place until the referendum - after that I wouldn't be at all surprised to see gideon sacked as cameron tries to hang on in the face of those trying to bump him out of number 10.
I agree with the comment above that a narrow win for "stay" will the worst of all world for the tories. The brextiers are extremely bad losers and they will not be giving up - they will blame cameron for playing dirty and they will want his head whatever.
I notice david davies has waded into the furore in support of IDS - does he want another crack at the leadership i wonder?
I agree with the comment above that a narrow win for "stay" will the worst of all world for the tories. The brextiers are extremely bad losers and they will not be giving up - they will blame cameron for playing dirty and they will want his head whatever.
I notice david davies has waded into the furore in support of IDS - does he want another crack at the leadership i wonder?
marty21
One on one? You're crazy.
It looks like IDS has finally exposed divisions within the Tories about Austerity (only took him 6 years to admit this 
) and Osborne will have to tread carefully, particularly as the London Mayoral election is coming up, and Scottish Elections too, and local elections, all in the next couple of months.
I'd have thought there's a big chance of a leadership election in the Autumn, if the referendum vote is to stay, Cameron might be tempted to leave on a high, and Osborne would them be perfectly placed for a coronation -as Bojo will be fucked by a referendum defeat. If we vote to leave, then Cameron has to resign, Bojo will no doubt romp to victory, and might well be tempted to go for a snap general election as well.
) and Osborne will have to tread carefully, particularly as the London Mayoral election is coming up, and Scottish Elections too, and local elections, all in the next couple of months.I'd have thought there's a big chance of a leadership election in the Autumn, if the referendum vote is to stay, Cameron might be tempted to leave on a high, and Osborne would them be perfectly placed for a coronation -as Bojo will be fucked by a referendum defeat. If we vote to leave, then Cameron has to resign, Bojo will no doubt romp to victory, and might well be tempted to go for a snap general election as well.
J Ed
Follow Back Pro Expropriation
David Davis would be a great candidate in terms of both someone who could conceivably win a Tory leadership election and be beaten by Corbyn.
gosub
~#
gosub
~#
Something odd about Davis. Was almost as if he threw the leadership race against Cameron, a lurking skeleton of some sort possibly -but nothing overtly criminal as they gave him the Home Office brief
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
You are basing that on what?a referendum over 40 years ago
Er no - The way UKIPers, people like IDS and the other assorted head bangers behave whenever they are thwarted.
You think they will accept the result and meekly shut up?
marty21
One on one? You're crazy.
can't remember now why he wasn't given a cabinet post, was it a brexit thing ?
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
their behaviour - these are the same 'bastards' that plagued John Major 20-odd years ago - has hardly moved them away from the stereotype of the swivell-eyed loons, has it?
the Tory Brexists are fanatics - they won't change their mind and the can't change the subject - they will never 'get over it', they will never just accept it and move on, they are the epytomy of 'in defeat, Malice'.
they are the same as the wierdos who still give their loyalty to a minor decendant of the Stuarts who lives in Astria and wants them to go away - the term 'oh well...' utterly escapes them...
marty21
One on one? You're crazy.
I stopped reading when he mentioned the Magna Carta
but I remember now.Who? Where is Astria? I'm confused.
gosub
~#
This would be the bastards and fanatics that thought the EUro would be a disaster. These would be the bastards and fanatics who have been thwarted over public consultation on things like the EUropean constitution that has given the EU enough scope that the Italian finance minister reckons they could bring in pan EUropean taxation without needing treaty change (which makes Cameron's 'reform' -legal if incorporated in a new treaty, a joke). You can't keep constantly keep moving the goal posts and expect the NAY sayers to shrug it off. Particularly as the "bastards" were right over the EUro.
I don't know what OUTERs would do if its a Remain vote, but it wasn't swivvel eyed lunacy to have expected a referendum both over Maastrict and the constitution. I'm depressed enough about what they will do in the event of a Leave vote -the terms we end with won't quell Farage et al.
marty21
One on one? You're crazy.
I think the Outers will blame 'project fear' and go conspiraloon, after claiming it is a once in a generation vote, will say it is too important and want a twice in a generation vote.
gosub
~#
No its not OUTER's who are saying its a once in a generation thing. Its every cunting government since Thatcher that seems to think the best way forward has been not to engage with the public when getting further entwined. Alan Johnson in the Guardian debate said it was a myth that EUrope is inflicted on the UK, as a former cabinet Minister an entirely honest thing to say: they get consulted, for Joe public not so mythical (which is I concede a UK failing rather than an EU one) but in means more of the same.
Potentially there may be another treaty coming up, they were getting geared up a year ago, which would under current statute, mean another referendum, though the murmurings from the continent is there's enough scope in current format to further integrate without one.
Wouldn't they be right to do so?
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
I don't think anyones forgotten but its that thing, nobody resigns for the good of the party anymore. These people are vultures.
epitome
but yes, they won't be giving up. Thats why its all the more delicious if its avery close result. They'll feel, with some justification, that half the country agrees with them and the crucial 'don't knows' got mugged by a media campaign. Thus ran the scots indyreff, although given the turnout what looks narrow there was still a big chunk of people swaying it towards keeping in the UK
gosub
~#
Budget vote is tommorow, Tuesday
Should we all email Graham Brady stating that as loyal tories we implore he should put the boot in on our behalf?
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Last couple of polls - before all this came out - slightly better for Labour:
Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Be interesting to see how it all plays out in the polls over the next few weeks. To be honest though, whilst Labour will certainly benefit from the tory civil war, I can't see them making the most out of it. Corbyn just can't do the vicious stuff, you need an absolute bastard as leader to really twist the knife. More than that, in terms of electoral politics labour are still navel gazing and having their own slow motion civil war. Long time off, but the tories are still significant favourites to win in 2020.
ruffneck23
front left
wrong thread soz
marty21
One on one? You're crazy.
wouldn't take much for the Tories to lose the vote, a wafer thing majority, I think it is protocol to accept the budget but in case I think protocol will be out the window.
marty21
One on one? You're crazy.
mebbe, but they have been using it themselves as well -
Rebelling on the budget is almost unheard of. The Tory majority is indeed wafer thin but that assumes parties like the DUP and the UUP back the opposition
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