The big Brexit thread - news, updates and discussion

[MickiQ]

Workers rights are stronger where there are strong and organised trade unions . Employee rights in France and Germany are strong because of the unions standing firm from attacks by their governments attempting to strip them away due to EU budget rules . The TUC after the defeat of the miners lumped in with supporting the EU as some form of check/ protection against the Tories .

Yep wouldn't argue with that, strong and organised unions contribute to a culture where rights get accepted and thus written into law in the two most countries in the EU. Since all are equal but some are more unequal than others, those 2 countries don't want to see their own industries undercut by lower rights and hence lower costs so they foist them on the other members. They're doing this out of self-interest not the goodness of their hearts.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Giving the Tories a great big kick into a nationalist-platform election-winning position of dominance for at least a generation? Couldve done without that, if thats all this is about

The Tories have consolidated power while lurching even further to the right, with a big dose of anti-immigrant sentiment thrown in. Meanwhile, Labour has lurched back to the right. Both direct consequences of the Leave vote. We can't play the alternative history where Remain wins, but it's hard to imagine it being worse than this.

 

[teuchter]

There's proof here on Urban if you want to wind back to 2016 and look at pre-referendum posts. It was clear to plenty of posters on here that notions of a 'lexit' were a fantasy. Yet here we are nearly five years later and still the argument is made that opposing brexit is somehow cheerleading neoliberalism. It's bollocks, and always was.

I reckon a lot of people arguing for lexit pre referendum were doing so under what they thought was a safe assumption that brexit would never come to pass and their theories would never be tested.

But it turns out that it did come to pass, and next year perhaps we can see the real world consequences of voting in favour of brexit. That said, I expect the number of "lexit" voters was probably vanishingly small and had no impact on the final outcome, and similarly the "I'm not voting either way out of principle" brigade.

 

[tendril]

I was under the impression that the plan was to hang him pretty much on day one.

And hopefully a short drop rather than a long drop

 

[tendril]

the kind of chaos that hurts the poorest the hardest.

It's also the kind of chaos that can make some people a shiteload of money, as I understand it.

 

[Artaxerxes]

It's also the kind of chaos that can make some people a shiteload of money, as I understand it.

Most of them firm staunch brexiteers in cabinet and the media

 

[kabbes]

Regarding the political and social environment precipitating and resulting from Brexit, it's worth considering the research.

This is a study of 50,000 articles about immigration from 2011-2016 in The Guardian, The Telegraph and The Sun. Long story short, it definitely shows a few important points: firstly, all newspapers increasingly concentrated on EU immigrants over their previous focus, which was "illegal" immigrants. Secondly, they transferred their stigmas of "illegal" immigrants over to EU immigrants and Eastern European immigrants in particular, calling on orientalist stereotypes to do so. They also managed to tie EU membership and the Calais crisis together. There are lots of other things in that paper that I could discuss, but for this purpose, that's the meat.

However, evidence that newspapers did this is not quite the same as evidence that this was the critical point in people's minds. This is a study that looks at how people understood the relationship between Britain and Europe during the critical period. It also found "Eastern vs Western Europe" as a theme, which indicates to me that some of that newspaper work stuck. However, just as importantly, it found three completely different representations in peoples' minds of what constituted the relationship. These representations were strongly linked to geography and social status, meaning that it isn't as straightforward as "immigration=bad". There were even two very different leaver representations: one of "global Britain vs little Europe" that had an internationist bent, and one of "Europe as cultural threat" that was a more nationist concern of having Britishness overwhelmed by Europe.

Finally, this study considers how remainers have understood Brexit post-referendum. It makes many fascinating points, particularly about the impact of a neoliberal ideology. However, I particularly want to draw out that Remainers were shocked at the fact that there was a large public out there that they had previously failed to recognise. This has resonance because there is a body of work saying that misrecognition/non-recognition of identity from the powerful to the powerless is a form of political violence that tends to precipitate action. Given that remainers are generally in socially more powerful categories than leavers, this all lends support to the theory (to me at least) that Brexit was -- in some part, at least -- a political kick by the masses against those with higher levels of social and cultural capital. To this end, it was nothing to do with racism or immigration or even anti-EU sentiment at all; just a chance to scream into the void.

(ETA: I note that the latter two papers are not claiming that their study populations are representative of the public at large, just that they can draw illustrative representations from the interviews with the study participants. I'm being as careful as I can to make sure this doesn't affect what I'm saying above)

 

[not-bono-ever]

Well yeah

 

[Pickman's model]

There's proof here on Urban if you want to wind back to 2016 and look at pre-referendum posts. It was clear to plenty of posters on here that notions of a 'lexit' were a fantasy. Yet here we are nearly five years later and still the argument is made that opposing brexit is somehow cheerleading neoliberalism. It's bollocks, and always was.

The sort of brexit we have now was not the only one that might have been and it is dishonest to insist as you dothat it was inevitable. Many different exits could have taken place, remaining in the eea, joining efta, etc. We're here now because of Theresa May's red lines. There could have been a deal. And to be here now looking at the transition period ending in no deal is a matter of choice rather than a matter of inevitability

 

[two sheds]

Didn't take much notice but I'm sure I saw an article that some in Labour blame partly blame themselves for the situation now I presume because if Labour had backed May's proposal it would have got through.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Didn't take much notice but I'm sure I saw an article that some in Labour blame partly blame themselves for the situation now I presume because if Labour had backed May's proposal it would have got through.

There are lots of alternative actions Labour could have taken at various stages, right from the start, tbh. At the point where May was pushing her proposal, Labour could have formally backed the Common Market 2 proposal (aka 'soft brexit'), which might well then have got through. I think May would still have fallen and we'd still have been headed for an early election, but it would have been an early election with a soft brexit done and the Tories still at war with themselves.

Labour ended up taking the blame for the brexit chaos when they weren't in power at any point, the referendum wasn't their idea, and none of the attempted deals was their idea. They played the whole thing catastrophically badly.

 

[two sheds]

No 10 to ‘look closely’ at EU contingency plans but signal Johnson not backing down on fish

 

[tendril]

The sort of brexit we have now was not the only one that might have been and it is dishonest to insist as you dothat it was inevitable. Many different exits could have taken place, remaining in the eea, joining efta, etc. We're here now because of Theresa May's red lines. There could have been a deal. And to be here now looking at the transition period ending in no deal is a matter of choice rather than a matter of inevitability

Speaking with leavers up here in the NE, the overriding opinion seems to be that the ballot said leave or stay and they wanted to leave at any cost. Deal or no deal. Shitshow or no shitshow. To them, arguing about whether the deal we get is the deal that was promised is immaterial. In fact, accepting a deal that compromises their idea of 'sovereignty' is worse in their eyes.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

The sort of brexit we have now was not the only one that might have been and it is dishonest to insist as you dothat it was inevitable. Many different exits could have taken place, remaining in the eea, joining efta, etc. We're here now because of Theresa May's red lines. There could have been a deal. And to be here now looking at the transition period ending in no deal is a matter of choice rather than a matter of inevitability

A tory-led brexit was always going to be a shitshow, one in which the tories would attempt a race to the bottom and people would be fucked over. It was clear that this is what the pro-brexit tories wanted from the start. How do I know this? Because they said so. I know you're contractually obliged to disagree with me about everything, but that is the point I was making. Brexit as negotiated by the tories following a nationalism- and xenophobia-filled referendum campaign was always a really fucking bad idea, and none of this should come as any kind of a surprise.

It's not dishonest to say this now because I was saying it five years ago, as were plenty of others.

 

[ska invita]

Speaking with leavers up here in the NE, the overriding opinion seems to be that the ballot said leave or stay and they wanted to leave at any cost. Deal or no deal. Shitshow or no shitshow. To them, arguing about whether the deal we get is the deal that was promised is immaterial. In fact, accepting a deal that compromises their idea of 'sovereignty' is worse in their eyes.

no deal or whatever the hell deal they get through here is the best outcome.

any Norway, EEA, BINO etc wouldve only happened with Labour support which wouldve left hardocre remainers and leavers both incensed and we'd never hear the end of it

this way it is what it always was: a hard right Leave referendum, won, and carried through. it is what it is

 

[Pickman's model]

A tory-led brexit was always going to be a shitshow, one in which the tories would attempt a race to the bottom and people would be fucked over. It was clear that this is what the pro-brexit tories wanted from the start. How do I know this? Because they said so. I know you're contractually obliged to disagree with me about everything, but that is the point I was making. Brexit as negotiated by the tories following a nationalism- and xenophobia-filled referendum campaign was always a really fucking bad idea, and none of this should come as any kind of a surprise.

It's not dishonest to say this now because I was saying it five years ago, as were plenty of others.

when i say 'no it hasn't been clear right from the start' it is because it has not been clear right from the start. there was, if you'll care to recall, great confusion about what the may government's position was going to be - indeed no one knew until she revealed her red lines. so while you may have felt that this was how it was always going to go, that isn't frankly any proof of your actual inevitability.

 

[teuchter]

when i say 'no it hasn't been clear right from the start' it is because it has not been clear right from the start. there was, if you'll care to recall, great confusion about what the may government's position was going to be - indeed no one knew until she revealed her red lines. so while you may have felt that this was how it was always going to go, that isn't frankly any proof of your actual inevitability.

Says the fellow who spent quite some time confidently insisting that Brexit was in fact never going to happen, because it couldn't happen. Right up until it did.

 

[Pickman's model]

Says the fellow who spent quite some time confidently insisting that Brexit was in fact never going to happen, because it couldn't happen. Right up until it did.

i don't think you've caught the gist of my argument which was more to do with the poor quality of our politicians rather than 'it's never going to happen because it can't happen'. but i was in good company:

Is Brexit actually going to happen?

IS BREXIT ACTUALLY GOING TO HAPPEN? I dont think Brexit is going to happen. The forces who don't want it to happen are too great. Opposed are the majority of the british political establishment, the Civil Service, the education and arts institutions, the City of London, large corporate...

www.urban75.net

 

[MrCurry]

53 months and counting since the Brexit vote, and the political leaders of UK and EU are yet to agree on what trade and travel rules the rest of us have less than three weeks to prepare for!

Blooming marvellous. Who votes these idiots into power anyway?

 

[bimble]

This helps. Sort of.

Everything you need to know about day one of Brexit - Politics.co.uk

Oh sweet Christ not Brexit again. Yes, you will never escape. It will never be over. Decades from now, as your wrinkled fingers grasp the remote for your 3D holo-viewer, the main news item will still be about Brexit. At least we got a break during the coronavirus emergency. Yep, say what you...

www.politics.co.uk

Explains the almighty spidersweb of IT projects being cobbled together to deal with our exporting things next month.

‘Like jenga but going all the way up to the sky and made entirely of knives’.

 

[Pickman's model]

This helps. Sort of.

Everything you need to know about day one of Brexit - Politics.co.uk

Oh sweet Christ not Brexit again. Yes, you will never escape. It will never be over. Decades from now, as your wrinkled fingers grasp the remote for your 3D holo-viewer, the main news item will still be about Brexit. At least we got a break during the coronavirus emergency. Yep, say what you...

www.politics.co.uk

Explains the almighty spidersweb of IT projects being cobbled together to deal with our exporting things next month.

‘Like jenga but going all the way up to the sky and made entirely of knives’.

when it mentions acronyms the only one you need to know is 'fubar' which will be applicable to everything next year

 

[Raheem]

"Farage under beams and rubble."

 

[Pickman's model]

"Farage under beams and rubble."

 

[Pickman's model]

Speaking with leavers up here in the NE, the overriding opinion seems to be that the ballot said leave or stay and they wanted to leave at any cost. Deal or no deal. Shitshow or no shitshow. To them, arguing about whether the deal we get is the deal that was promised is immaterial. In fact, accepting a deal that compromises their idea of 'sovereignty' is worse in their eyes.

i don't care whether the deal that was promised is the deal we get. my point was that the situation we find ourselves in now, for better or worse, was not inevitable. perhaps leavers in the north-east and elsewhere will be happy under the new situation. perhaps not. but i think we're certainly in for some rather vitriolic times ahead, because there will be a fuck of a lot of people who are unhappy with the new buccaneering britain and quite likely to let it show.

 

[bimble]

Why did they take the decision to not extend the transition period a bit when it became apparent that there was a global pandemic ? I can’t remember now, was that just because Boris thought he’d look a bit weak ?

 

[brogdale]

All you gloomy chops seem to have forgotten this...

 

[ska invita]

Why did they take the decision to not extend the transition period a bit when it became apparent that there was a global pandemic ? I can’t remember now, was that just because Boris thought he’d look a bit weak ?

My impression is they've deliberately avoided the EU Labyrinth by imposing and sticking to these self set deadlines.

Also if they're going for a no deal crash out might as well get on with it asap

 

[two sheds]

All you gloomy chops seem to have forgotten this...

View attachment 242712

He had a tenner on it didn't he

 

[Pickman's model]

He had a tenner on it didn't he

yeh dominic cummings ran down to the bookies on victoria street and put it on. i wonder if he gave the slip to abdpj

 

[bimble]

My impression is they've deliberately avoided the EU Labyrinth by imposing and sticking to these self set deadlines.

Also if they're going for a no deal crash out might as well get on with it asap

idk what you mean by the labryrinth.
You think they always pretty much intended to get no deal and spend the next 50 years in boring never ending trade negotiations? i dont think that's likely, seems more like they expected johnny foreigner to roll over and do whatever Great Britain demands with their fish.