The big Brexit thread - news, updates and discussion

[bimble]

Doesn't look like there will be much flying next month.

Holidaymakers from Great Britain barred from EU after 1 January under Covid rules

European commission indicates Britons will face ban on non-essential travel at end of Brexit transition

www.theguardian.com

Just saw the same thing.

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

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www.ft.com

You can’t go unless you’re a diplomat or it’s an emergency ? That’s shit news. Was hoping to see my parents.

 

[kabbes]

You're absolutely right it is unfair but we're now up against the harsh reality of we need a deal with them way more than they need one with us. The US is going to screw us over as well for exactly the same reason.
The fact that our politicians are a bunch of self-serving cunts shouldn't obscure the fact that other countries politicians are as well.

Well, what we’re up against is the question of whether it is worse to have no deal or to sign up to something indefinitely that we don’t know the consequences of. I’m less than convinced that the latter is the lesser evil.

 

[Pickman's model]

The man is a positive fashion icon, Frost's suit isn't much better it looks like he bought it off the peg and they didn't quite have his size.

While he's wearing a tie intended for a child

 

[MickiQ]

Well, what we’re up against is the question of whether it is worse to have no deal or to sign up to something indefinitely that we don’t know the consequences of. I’m less than convinced that the latter is the lesser evil.

In the short term there's no doubt that no-deal is going to be the worse choice by a country mile, In the long run your doubts may very well turn out to be justified.
But we (the collective we) made this choice to go down this route and now we face the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea, things not looking good for Blighty either way.

 

[Kaka Tim]

"fair" has got nothing to do with it. Its to do with respective economic clout. The eu has considerably more than the uk. As has the us and china. The uk on its own is always going to get an unequal trade deal.
But at least well be rid of those evil polish delicatessens and czech hairdressers.

 

[andysays]

What precedents are there for a country just accepting the all rules today and forever of a club without being a member of that club? Is that something that eg Norway has signed up to? It seems like a really bad idea.

I certainly don't remember anything of the sort being mentioned when it was being suggested by some that the UK should be aiming for a "Norway plus" deal, though that now seems like a lifetime ago so I could be wrong.

But it certainly sounds like they're making Johnson an offer he can't accept.

 

[DownwardDog]

What precedents are there for a country just accepting the all rules today and forever of a club without being a member of that club? Is that something that eg Norway has signed up to? It seems like a really bad idea.

The UK isn't being asked to accept "all" the rules. No Freedom of Movement for a start. The UK decided to leave and to ask for a trade deal. It's not the EU's fault if England don't like the deal on offer.

 

[kabbes]

"fair" has got nothing to do with it. Its to do with respective economic clout. The eu has considerably more than the uk. As has the us and china. The uk on its own is always going to get an unequal trade deal.
But at least well be rid of those evil polish delicatessens and czech hairdressers.

Just because the EU has more economic clout, doesn’t mean it’s worth signing up to whatever terms they see fit. If the EU didn’t want a deal, what has been the point in all this? And if they did want a deal, why come in with a late demand for something that is clearly unacceptable?

 

[Winot]

Why not just sign up for a rolling deal with a review date every couple of years to decide whether to continue or renegotiate?

 

[teuchter]

What precedents are there for a country just accepting the all rules today and forever of a club without being a member of that club? Is that something that eg Norway has signed up to? It seems like a really bad idea.

I don't know; this would be my question too.

I would have expected that things would work in the way Winot suggests - you agree a deal based on sticking to certain standards etc, which is constantly under review, in other words, if at any point either party wants to change those standards, then the other party can simply say that the deal is then off.

Of course this sets up a situation where the smaller party will always have the much lower power of veto, and it would probably turn out that in almost all cases the best option for the UK is to accept the EU-proposed standards, but that's just an inevitable part of deciding you want to leave the club. Which seems like a really bad idea. But the bad idea has been had already.

 

[Pickman's model]

I don't know; this would be my question too.

I would have expected that things would work in the way Winot suggests - you agree a deal based on sticking to certain standards etc, which is constantly under review, in other words, if at any point either party wants to change those standards, then the other party can simply say that the deal is then off.

Of course this sets up a situation where the smaller party will always have the much lower power of veto, and it would probably turn out that in almost all cases the best option for the UK is to accept the EU-proposed standards, but that's just an inevitable part of deciding you want to leave the club. Which seems like a really bad idea. But the bad idea has been had already.

oh the worst ideas are yet to come

 

[Yossarian]

If only we were in the EU to influence and increase both ways.

I give it about six months before Rejoiners recycle the "Take Back Control" slogan.

 

[not-bono-ever]

The ratchet mechanism is standard stuff . It’s at the core of WTO and NAFTA - I have not been through the details of stuff like the Japan starter one of late but it would be a fuckup if there wasn’t one.

 

[editor]

That's told 'em.

Certainly highlights what a colossal cock up Brexit is. Can you remind me of the amazing benefits we're all supposed to be enjoying soon.

 

[not-bono-ever]

This is hardly a new development for any trade negotiation professional. Maybe that’s the issue

 

[Pickman's model]

Certainly highlights what a colossal cock up Brexit is. Can you remind me of the amazing benefits we're all supposed to be enjoying soon.

we'll be living in australia
or some sort of mad max dystopian used to be the uk but it's now australia horror

 

[not-bono-ever]

Why not just sign up for a rolling deal with a review date every couple of years to decide whether to continue or renegotiate?

Most agreements are not cast forever, there is always maintenance needed and they build in the scope for this. There is in effect a rolling agreement offered but you need to sign up first. I haven’t done this fir a while tho’ so out of touch

 

[brogdale]

Checkmate?

 

[teuchter]

Checkmate?

A transition period from the transition period to the next transition period.

 

[not-bono-ever]

And anyway, if we do sort out a deal with the US, they will see us to the cleaners as we are the weaker party. The septics are brutal in the deals they sign. Ratchet caveats are their bread and butter

 

[brogdale]

Wonder if Johnson spotted the arrival of The Wild Hunt on his flight back to Northolt?

Wild Hunts typically involve a 'soul-raving' chase led by a mythological figure escorted by a ghostly or supernatural group of hunters passing in wild pursuit. The hunters are generally the souls of the dead or ghostly dogs, sometimes fairies, Valkyries or elves.

Seeing the Wild Hunt was thought to presage some catastrophe such as war or plague, or at best the death of the one who witnessed it. People encountering the Hunt might also be abducted to the underworld or the fairy kingdom. In some instances, it was also believed that people's spirits could be pulled away during their sleep to join the cavalcade.

Always thought that Deadwood had something of the psychopomp about him....

 

[Artaxerxes]

And anyway, if we do sort out a deal with the US, they will see us to the cleaners as we are the weaker party. The septics are brutal in the deals they sign. Ratchet caveats are their bread and butter

Ratchet caveats and corporate protectionism. So many toxic clauses added behind closed doors.

This myth that leaving the EU gives us sovereignty completely ignores the reality of how closely tied up the modern world is with dodgy treaties and vested interests.

 

[ska invita]

On a parallel, interesting interview with Wolfgang Streeck which talks about the EU in general with particular focus on Germany within it, and particularly interesting I thought was the bit about why countries like Greece don't leave the EU/Euro (and why their public continue to want to stay in)

 

[TopCat]

And anyway, if we do sort out a deal with the US, they will see us to the cleaners as we are the weaker party. The septics are brutal in the deals they sign. Ratchet caveats are their bread and butter

But what about the special relationship?

 

[TopCat]

Checkmate?

Doesn't it push no deal closer?

 

[brogdale]

Doesn't it push no deal closer?

In explicitly requiring a reciprocity deal to keep the planes, trains and automobiles running?

 

[Artaxerxes]

But what about the special relationship?

A masturbatory fantasy that’s been bullshit for decades.

We have been actively fucked over by the USA since at least WW2 despite throwing money and knowledge at them. They fucked us withholding nuclear tech, the told us to jog on over Suez, our air industry bled knowledge to Boeing and the newer fighters come with so many clauses British engineers can’t work on them. Blair was convinced we’d get special treatment from the US and marched us to war but we got fuck all.

 

[not-bono-ever]

Ratchet caveats and corporate protectionism. So many toxic clauses added behind closed doors.

This myth that leaving the EU gives us sovereignty completely ignores the reality of how closely tied up the modern world is with dodgy treaties and vested interests.

Logically, we will have less clout after full departure, theEU needs to prioritise its own survival whatever the cost. We are not getting anything which could bite them in the arse later. Johnson knows this. It’s performance art until things close

 

[Artaxerxes]

I didn’t even mention the very clearly racist aspects of “the special relationship”

 

[TopCat]

I didn’t even mention the very clearly racist aspects of “the special relationship”

I was taking the piss. But do expand please.