The 2019 General Election

[sunnysidedown]

Don Troooomp any chance you can take your Liberalangst rage to it's logical conclusion and jump out of the nearest window, thanks.

 

[killer b]

just don't respond to him, it's pointless.

 

[sunnysidedown]

just don't respond to him, it's pointless.

you are correct of course, although it's always worth planting a seed.

 

[Proper Tidy]

Don't want to sound like a crackhead or a corbynite true believer but I don't buy this polling, it's off imo. Tories ahead but by a nose.

 

[Don Troooomp]

just don't respond to him, it's pointless.

You could try responding to the polls

 

[Cid]

you are correct of course, although it's always worth planting a seed.

Though famously not on stony ground.

 

[killer b]

Don't want to sound like a crackhead or a corbynite true believer but I don't buy this polling, it's off imo. Tories ahead but by a nose.

How do you assess this though?

 

[Artaxerxes]

I think the polls are f***ed. We'll see.

Aye, anyone who says they know how the elections going to turn out is a liar.

I suspect the conservatives will win just by virtue of convincing people this will end Brexit (it will not) and get it done (it will not) while the remain vote splinters between parties.

But they'll either win by a fraction or all the way up to fuck me we're fucked levels.

 

[Proper Tidy]

How do you assess this though?

I don't really. Almost all the undecided types I know who don't really like corbyn are swinging in behind labour, but then this is obviously anecdotal and I mostly know people from a couple of specific parts of UK. Bit more objectively, I don't like the weightings pollsters are using for turnout by age cohort, I think they've fucked it.

I made a few quid out of referendum, corbyn (first time) and last general election (I bet on hung parliament when dickheads were talking about May getting a 100 seat majority and did alright on constituencies) so I like to fool myself my instincts are good, so Tories will probably get 380 seats or something.

 

[Brixton Hatter]

I think that poll's possibly a bit of an outlier, but there's also this [from the Guardian article about the poll]:

The Tory lead stood at 16 points last week, three points lower than now. However, Opinium is now taking into account the fact that some parties – primarily the Brexit party, which has pulled its candidates from Tory-held constituencies – are not running in every seat. Opinium also asked voters who they would back if all parties were running in their seat, which gave the Tories a 16-point lead – the same as last week’s poll.

Still, 16 points lead is not looking good

 

[Humberto]

Polls are slippery things. I'm not worried.

 

[ManchesterBeth]

Aye, anyone who says they know how the elections going to turn out is a liar.

I suspect the conservatives will win just by virtue of convincing people this will end Brexit (it will not) and get it done (it will not) while the remain vote splinters between parties.

But they'll either win by a fraction or all the way up to fuck me we're fucked levels.

That's not why they will win. Corbyn is a true skool kemalist who can't even advocate the disbanding of a professional standing army! much less say that the UK will commit to freedom of movement if we leave. when you have tory lite and da real primo bomb shit its a no brainer really.

*not saying this positively, this is basically a pretty hard right wing manifesto with basically 0 socialist content... the social justice stuff exactly has shy/soft labourites deceived*

 

[ManchesterBeth]

 

[Marty1]

Tories to unveil manifesto 'to get Brexit done'

Brexit by January 2020!

 

[Proper Tidy]

That's not why they will win. Corbyn is a true skool kemalist who can't even advocate the disbanding of a professional standing army! much less say that the UK will commit to freedom of movement if we leave. when you have tory lite and da real primo bomb shit its a no brainer really.

*not saying this positively, this is basically a pretty hard right wing manifesto with basically 0 socialist content... the social justice stuff exactly has shy/soft labourites deceived*

I'm not sure a policy of disbanding the armed forces would have a positive impact on polling for labour tbh

 

[cupid_stunt]

19 fucking points

The Guardian is reporting a much increased tory lead.
As I've said many times, and been called a cunt for saying, this election has been given to the tories by Corbyn and his band of idiots - as the polls clearly prove.

That's one poll out of six this weekend, and would seem an outlier, as the other 5 all give them a smaller lead of between 10 & 13%, and there were polls showing similiar leads at this stage in 2017, and we know how that played out.

So, the polls haven't proven anything, yet.

* All polling companies have now removed parties from areas where they are not standing, hence the Brexit Party only polling between 3 & 5% across all 6 polls this weekend.

 

[Dogsauce]

Wasn’t there a direction of travel towards labour at this time in 2017? That’s what we’re not seeing now, it needs a bit of movement and optimism.

I think last time the press was less deferential towards the tories as they felt they didn’t need to be (dementia tax and all that) but seem to be in lock-step this time, and the BBC seems more cowed. As predicted, they’re not taking things for granted this time round.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Wasn’t there a direction of travel towards labour at this time in 2017? That’s what we’re not seeing now, it needs a bit of movement and optimism.

Looking back, there was some movement at this stage in 2017, but most were still coming up with a similar lead to what is being shown this week.

It was only 2 weekends before that many started to show lower levels of lead, but even in the week before the GE, the spread was crazy from a Labour lead of 2% to a Tory one of 13%.

 

[redsquirrel]

Wasn’t there a direction of travel towards labour at this time in 2017? That’s what we’re not seeing now, it needs a bit of movement and optimism.

I think last time the press was less deferential towards the tories as they felt they didn’t need to be (dementia tax and all that) but seem to be in lock-step this time, and the BBC seems more cowed. As predicted, they’re not taking things for granted this time round.

Took a while for movement toward Labour in 2017, if remember it was after the LE results.

 

[Smangus]

Everyone is using 2017 for comparison, this is a different election with a few similarities but a vast difference in the way people are thinking about the politics of now. I think it's a mistake to compare imho we are not fighting the last election again.

 

[cupid_stunt]

Everyone is using 2017 for comparison, this is a different election with a few similarities but a vast difference in the way people are thinking about the politics of now. I think it's a mistake to compare imho we are not fighting the last election again.

That's true, and May car-crashed it, esp. with the dementia tax, but there's still a chance something similiar could happen, although I am not convinced it will.

 

[cupid_stunt]

This is worth a look...

Top target seats in the 2019 general election – interactive

 

[butchersapron]

Sac

Galloway interviewed Chris Williamson on one of his russian state shows and they didn't mention jews or israel or palestinians once in the whole 25 minutes which must be some sort of record. Just a load of old shit with Williamson claiming that he got hunted and deselected because of integrity initiative and for being too pro-Corbyn.

 

[PR1Berske]

 

[elbows]

Pretty close to a real world Cold War Steve montage!

 

[kebabking]

Sac

View attachment 190882

Is it just me, or is the Chris Williamson image on the banner looking a lot like Williamson is wearing a Wehrmacht field cap last seen in the Blitzkrieg era?

Subliminal messaging?

 

[butchersapron]

Yes, it looks like something he he should be wearing late 41 - scouring the horizon with binoculars. With a shitty drawn on derby ram.

 

[butchersapron]

He also looks like he's dead, or at least been dug up.

 

[bluescreen]

What's with the double L emphasis?

 

[Don Troooomp]

That's one poll out of six this weekend, and would seem an outlier, as the other 5 all give them a smaller lead of between 10 & 13%, and there were polls showing similiar leads at this stage in 2017, and we know how that played out.

Agreed, but the tories have a powerful twat this time instead of a weak twat, something that has to be taken seriously, especially as their powerful twat is also a clever twat.
little things like scrapping the unpopular parking charges are a massive positive for him, even though we all know he'd scrap the NHS tomorrow if he could.
As I've said many times, the tory's policies hardly matter, it's how they come over, and they're doing a very good PR job while making Corbyn look like a useless pillock that's scrambling to catch up and copying tory policies. Johnson, a man any decent politician should be able to expose as the utter cunt he is, is running rings round Corbyn.

Tories to unveil manifesto 'to get Brexit done'

The Conservative Party will launch its general election manifesto later, promising to bring back the Withdrawal Agreement Bill before Christmas to achieve Brexit by the end of January.

Other pledges include a promise not to raise the rates of VAT, income tax and National Insurance, as well as an extra £250m a year to expand childcare.

Hospital parking charges will be axed for selected patients and NHS staff.

Boris Johnson will vow to "unleash the potential" of the UK.

Yes, it's bollocks, but it's really well presented bollocks and that's dangerous.