The 2019 General Election

[Lorca]

You make some interesting suggestions.

As a side note - my mum has just returned from a short break in London with friends and she remarked about the insanity of the capitals house prices. She saw one 3 bed house (smaller than her house) on the market for £27million and a 4 bedroom flat on the rental market for £18k per week or £13k per week on a long term lease.

She also noticed quite a few people sleeping rough around London. Such insane wealth yet abject poverty side by side.

who are you voting for Marty1?

 

[Marty1]

who are you voting for Marty1?

Undecided.

 

[Pickman's model]

You make some interesting suggestions.

As a side note - my mum has just returned from a short break in London with friends and she remarked about the insanity of the capitals house prices. She saw one 3 bed house (smaller than her house) on the market for £27million and a 4 bedroom flat on the rental market for £18k per week or £13k per week on a long term lease.

She also noticed quite a few people sleeping rough around London. Such insane wealth yet abject poverty side by side.

i suspect there's a decimal point missing in your £27m

 

[YouSir]

Please learn to fucking read, that or stop with the pathetic trolling

Oh the irony.

 

[Pickman's model]

My god, you're stupid.
This will upset the tories in a big way, but they can't moan about it without looking bad as there are no losers except estate agents. Even builders can make a profit, so they have nothing to worry about.
Please learn to fucking read, that or stop with the pathetic trolling

please learn to stop making up lies or stop with the pathetic trolling you subliterate piece of rancid monkey shit

 

[killer b]

just don't respond to him, it's pointless.

.

 

[danny la rouge]

I’m reading a history of India at the moment. John Keay. It’s a good read. Surprisingly engaging writing style, despite the often esoteric primary sources.

 

[JimW]

I’m reading a history of India at the moment. John Keay. It’s a good read. Surprisingly engaging writing style, despite the often esoteric primary sources.

That Chola dynasty, eh?

 

[killer b]

Can't say I've looked into it, but things must have changed a bit since the introduction of individual rather than household (or University Hall) registration. In other words, there's always likely to be more late registration of younger voters nowadays. Labour benefits from it, but it's not in itself necessarily a sign of a mini 'surge'. I think what I'm trying to say is that a fair % of these younger voters would have been on the register anyway 20 years ago.

I wasn't serious btw, no fucker is going to end up voting Lib Dem this time round: I do have some concerns about the way the voter registrations seem to be being thought of as a bloc Labour vote though - I remember around the referendum lots of people voted for the first time (and presumably had to register to do so) in order to vote out - lots of these registrations could be the same this time round, except to vote tory. Fact is we don't really know...

 

[philosophical]

Everybody makes mistakes, or did the British public get things right when they voted Brexit?

I have not noticed a lot of Brexit voters saying they made a mistake, most say they knew what they were voting for.
The British public voted leave, the problem is being connected to the EU via the land border in Ireland.

 

[chilango]

I wasn't serious btw, no fucker is going to end up voting Lib Dem this time round: I do have some concerns about the way the voter registrations seem to be being thought of as a bloc Labour vote though - I remember around the referendum lots of people voted for the first time (and presumably had to register to do so) in order to vote out - lots of these registrations could be the same this time round, except to vote tory. Fact is we don't really know...

There's been a big(ish) registration drive at my Uni (although here I fear there's plenty of posh kids who would vote Tory - if they could be arsed) and that seems to be the case nationwide. I've seen figures floated on Twitter for the number of these registrations being younger voters. I think a degree of hope that this could boost Labour, and that this is not being reflected in the polls, is justified. Whether it's enough is a much harder question.

 

[PR1Berske]

I keep seeing people talking about the number of young voters registering to vote - hundreds of thousands, someone said 1.5 million... but then I think what if they're all registering to vote lib dem?

One thing to note. Remember that we don't have a national voting system where seats are allocated in proportion to votes; we have 650 individual contests, some more sealed off from the national picture than others.

I noticed in 2017 that some Labour figures - Corbyn and Lammy amongst them - got over 40,000 votes in their constituencies while the Labour Party lost near by marginals by a few hundred or a thousand or so. If all these new voters vote Labour, but do so in already safe seats, their support really isn't helping.

Votes matter in the marginals and target seats. So in Twickenham, say, not Tottenham.

It'll be interesting to see if this happens again, where prominent MPs are elected by mammoth scores while neighbouring seats are lost by a handful. Remember the old adage; "A majority of one is a win, anything more is showing off."

 

[danny la rouge]

There's been a big(ish) registration drive at my Uni (although here I fear there's plenty of posh kids who would vote Tory - if they could be arsed) and that seems to be the case nationwide. I've seen figures floated on Twitter for the number of these registrations being younger voters. I think a degree of hope that this could boost Labour, and that this is not being reflected in the polls, is justified. Whether it's enough is a much harder question.

The sense I get here from the polls and anecdotally is that the Labour vote here is going to collapse even further. How that relates to what's happening in England, I don't really know. My guess is that the Tories will have a working majority. And then the Overton Window in the Labour Party will shift further right again.

 

[chilango]

Something that's been tickling my reflections on this election is the though of voters turning on well-known MPs.

We're already hearing that there's an energetic campaign to unseat Johnson, many of us will no doubt be staying up in the hope of watching Swinson lose her seat and IDS is in danger.

We saw in the Brexit and AV referendums, as well as in the Euros, voters being increasingly savvy in using the tools available to them at the ballot box to try and send their own messages.

Given we've seen mounting hostility to the political class everywhere from the streets to the QT audience I wonder whether we could see voters deliberately turn on the more high-profile MPs of all Parties to express this disgust.

One, two, many Portillo moments!

 

[chilango]

The sense I get here from the polls and anecdotally is that the Labour vote here is going to collapse even further. How that relates to what's happening in England, I don't really know. My guess is that the Tories will have a working majority. And then the Overton Window in the Labour Party will shift further right again.

I suspect the feeling on the ground here in the South East is very different from Scotland. The North and Midlands different again. Increasing divisions abound.

 

[andysays]

Something that's been tickling my reflections on this election is the though of voters turning on well-known MPs.

We're already hearing that there's an energetic campaign to unseat Johnson, many of us will no doubt be staying up in the hope of watching Swinson lose her seat and IDS is in danger.

We saw in the Brexit and AV referendums, as well as in the Euros, voters being increasingly savvy in using the tools available to them at the ballot box to try and send their own messages.

Given we've seen mounting hostility to the political class everywhere from the streets to the QT audience I wonder whether we could see voters deliberately turn on the more high-profile MPs of all Parties to express this disgust.

One, two, many Portillo moments!

Not sure how this would work. As just pointed out, voters are in particular constituencies, which limits their ability to vote against high profile MPs in the way you seem to be suggesting.

I would be quite happy to switch my vote from Tottenham to Chingford so I could vote against IDS rather than for Lammy, who will win here whatever I do, but that's not how the system works.

 

[chilango]

Not sure how this would work. As just pointed out, voters are in particular constituencies, which limits their ability to vote against high profile MPs in the way you seem to be suggesting.

I would be quite happy to switch my vote from Tottenham to Chingford so I could vote against IDS rather than for Lammy, who will win here whatever I do, but that's not how the system works.

Of course, it would have to happen on a constituency level.

 

[chilango]

Of course, it would have to happen on a constituency level.

...and I'm not especially advocating it as a wider tactic, just musing whether its something we may see on a greater scale than before and lead to to some surprising results here and there.

 

[Don Troooomp]

please learn to stop making up lies or stop with the pathetic trolling you subliterate piece of rancid monkey shit

How about commenting on my idea for social housing rather than trolling and insulting?

 

[Poi E]

Putting people in car parking buildings? It's happening already 'Homeless' man found dying in freezing car park

 

[Pickman's model]

How about commenting on my idea for social housing rather than trolling and insulting?

how's about you back up your claim about my supporting corbyn? but wait - your claim's nothing but hot air from a puffed up windbag. apology due, i think

 

[MickiQ]

i suspect there's a decimal point missing in your £27m

So do I, but it's still a ridiculous sum of money

 

[Don Troooomp]

apology due, i think

True, when are you going to issue it?

 

[Badgers]

Around 1% of this decade remains

Let's see how much we can still fuck it up eh?

 

[Proper Tidy]

Just wondering in Swinson's constituency whether anti indy pro brexit voters will waste vote on tory, swing in behind libdems as anti SNP vote, or swing behind SNP to unseat Swinson.

 

[Pickman's model]

Around 1% of this decade remains

Let's see how much we can still fuck it up eh?

if anyone can fuck it up, johnson's your man

 

[redsquirrel]

Just wondering in Swinson's constituency whether anti indy pro brexit voters will waste vote on tory, swing in behind libdems as anti SNP vote, or swing behind SNP to unseat Swinson.

Don't think that is a very big voting bloc PT (ED 26.7% leave), and Tories have pretty consistently taken 4500-7500 votes.

 

[Wilf]

I wasn't serious btw, no fucker is going to end up voting Lib Dem this time round: I do have some concerns about the way the voter registrations seem to be being thought of as a bloc Labour vote though - I remember around the referendum lots of people voted for the first time (and presumably had to register to do so) in order to vote out - lots of these registrations could be the same this time round, except to vote tory. Fact is we don't really know...

Yeah, I was just responding to your post as it was on the same topic, agree with you about 'the youth' not being a libdem army. Similarly, I think I was getting to the same point about young/first time voters not being a 'Corbyn army'. They will probably be less tory and less brexity than other voters, but lesss and less a bloc as you say.

 

[Badgers]

YouGov poll as at 12pm

 

[Pickman's model]

YouGov poll as at 12pm

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