Saudis / UAE / Egypt / Bahrain vs Qatar

[gosub]

It's much easier when you've defined "terrorism" as any kind of organised political dissent.

All atheists are terrorists, Saudi Arabia declares

 

[CrabbedOne]

of relevance

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edit: as it now seems to be behind a paywall

$38.5 million per Qatari hostage! That's a pretty expensive falconry trip.

 

[not-bono-ever]

Qatar flight ban begins as Gulf crisis grows - BBC News

the airspace ban has hit up

 

[nuffsaid]

R4 Today programme mentioned this morning that some Al Qaeda affiliated group kidnapped members of the Qatar royal family and they paid a ransom of $1Billion. So that's $1Billion jihadists have. Apparently that was the last straw for other mideast regimes and they cut ties.

Qatar may have paid $1 billion in ransom for release of royal family members captured while hunting with falcons

 

[not-bono-ever]

How does iran come into that Ransom beneficiary thingy mentioned ? unless I am being thick here

 

[Pickman's model]

View attachment 108596


How does iran come into that Ransom beneficiary thingy mentioned ? unless I am being thick here

cos iran i suppose, why miss a chance...

 

[Pickman's model]

attendees at bidec 2017 might have the opportunity for live action shooting if the situation deteriorates

 

[not-bono-ever]

best place the helmet and vest exhibitors at the entrance for the show. Nothing like astute product merchandising to take advantage of a crisis

 

[Anudder Oik]

I think Qatar is dependent on its food supply coming from over the border via saudi Arabia, so expect this crisis to come to a head very shortly.

 

[CrabbedOne]

View attachment 108596


How does iran come into that Ransom beneficiary thingy mentioned ? unless I am being thick here

Qatari falcon fanciers grabbed by an Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps backed Iraqi militia and held in Iran. Which is on SOP for Iranian hostage taking. Most of the cash probably did end up in Iranian hands. The IRGC can spot a nice little earner. Currently buying up Syrian real estate at knock down prices. This will come in very handy.

As I understand it AQ involvement was part of the Syrian Four Towns deal brokered by Iran and Qatar. You know the one where someone blew up a couple of coach loads of Shia kids being moved to regime territory out of rebel Idlib. I don't think the Saudis are actually that upset about the AQ part.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On TAC Trump’s Qatar Blunder

Could equally have gone on the "Stupid Shit" thread.

 

[agricola]

On TAC Trump’s Qatar Blunder

Could equally have gone on the "Stupid Shit" thread.

Well, if they were looking for something to impeach him with then they don't have to look any more.

 

[CrabbedOne]

Well, if they were looking for something to impeach him with then they don't have to look any more.

A US president being a Foreign Policy dip shit isn't actually impeachable. The Septics don't really have the vote of no confidence thing. It's a bit like doctors and malpractice. A POTUS has to abuse his power to be impeached. The patient can bleed out on the operating table and the system is terribly forgiving just don't get caught fiddling with the corpse afterwards. Which is a rather apt comparison to the Trump administration.

 

[agricola]

A US president being a Foreign Policy dip shit isn't actually impeachable. The Septics don't really have the vote of no confidence thing. It's a bit like doctors and malpractice. A POTUS has to abuse his power to be impeached. The patient can bleed out on the operating table and the system is terribly forgiving just don't get caught fiddling with the corpse afterwards. Which is a rather apt comparison to the Trump administration.

I know, but what I meant was that he might well have abused his power here - that Saudi arms "deal" is recent enough for him to have done this as part of it, and that base at al-Udeid was built (partially at least) with US money and is seemingly vital to US interests in the region. You could easily argue that it is a dereliction of his duty.

 

[Ming]

Well, if they were looking for something to impeach him with then they don't have to look any more.

Unfortunately they want to get the juicy tax cuts, deregulation and destruction of the welfare programmes through before they shitcan Trumpy. They control the 3 houses so could impeach whenever but no political will until the real agenda has been met.

 

[not-bono-ever]

Qatari falcon fanciers grabbed by an Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps backed Iraqi militia and held in Iran. Which is on SOP for Iranian hostage taking. Most of the cash probably did end up in Iranian hands. The IRGC can spot a nice little earner. Currently buying up Syrian real estate at knock down prices. This will come in very handy.

As I understand it AQ involvement was part of the Syrian Four Towns deal brokered by Iran and Qatar. You know the one where someone blew up a couple of coach loads of Shia kids being moved to regime territory out of rebel Idlib. I don't think the Saudis are actually that upset about the AQ part.

is this true ? I know the IRG are always looking for a quick buck

 

[coley]

$38.5 million per Qatari hostage! That's a pretty expensive falconry trip.

Small change to these people.

 

[coley]

Unfortunately they want to get the juicy tax cuts, deregulation and destruction of the welfare programmes through before they shitcan Trumpy. They control the 3 houses so could impeach whenever but no political will until the real agenda has been met.

Aye, then they will impeach the sad sod with cries of "it's all his fault, but lessons have been learned"

 

[not-bono-ever]

Adnan Khashoggi: Saudi billionaire arms dealer dies aged 82 - BBC News

"A statement from the family on Tuesday said: "He lived his last days surrounded by his devoted family, children and grandchildren, with the same elegance, strength and dignity that characterised his remarkable life. He is survived by his wife Lamia.

"AK was a pioneer who achieved global recognition in a golden age through his extraordinary business achievements and renowned generosity. Our father understood the art of bringing people together better than anyone.

"He combined commercial acumen with an over-riding loyalty to his country, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. His work always furthered the interests of his country."



the cunt

 

[coley]

R4 Today programme mentioned this morning that some Al Qaeda affiliated group kidnapped members of the Qatar royal family and they paid a ransom of $1Billion. So that's $1Billion jihadists have. Apparently that was the last straw for other mideast regimes and they cut ties.

Qatar may have paid $1 billion in ransom for release of royal family members captured while hunting with falcons

The "other" ME regimes that have been funnelling billions to ISIS without the threat of having their relations heads chopped off?

 

[Ming]

Aye, then they will impeach the sad sod with cries of "it's all his fault, but lessons have been learned"

I almost feel sorry for him. The Republicans never really liked him (they're having problems filling key posts in the administration because no one wants to be in the plane on fire and going down). But he did get them elected by lying to poor sods in the rust belt who dream about coal jobs coming back. So fuck him.

 

[CrabbedOne]

On Handelsblatt German Foreign Minister Voices Support for Qatar, Bashes Trump

...
The foreign minister and German vice chancellor warned of a further worsening of the conflict, which saw several Arab countries sever ties with Qatar in a coordinated action on Monday, accusing the Gulf state of supporting Iran and Islamist groups. “A further escalation would serve nobody. The Middle East is a political and a military powder keg. Religious, ethnic, political and ideological conflicts are now also dividing the Gulf monarchies,” Mr. Gabriel said, adding that he was very concerned over the “situation’s dramatic escalation” and its impact on the entire region.

Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain severed relations with Qatar and closed their airspace to commercial flights on Monday, in the worst split between powerful Arab states in decades. Qatar vehemently denies the accusations against it. US President Donald Trump on Tuesday took to Twitter, saying Arab states had told him about their disputes with Qatar during a recent trip abroad. “During my recent trip to the Middle East I stated that there can no longer be funding of Radical Ideology. Leaders pointed to Qatar – look!,” Mr. Trump tweeted.

Mr. Gabriel criticized the US president’s Middle East policy. “The latest gigantic military deals by US President Trump with the Gulf monarchies are exacerbating the risk of a new arms build-up,” he said. “That is the completely wrong policy approach and certainly not that of Germany.” Mr. Trump had sealed a $110 billion arms deal with Saudi Arabia when he visited the kingdom in May as part of his first trip abroad.

Mr. Gabriel said the nuclear deal with Iran, brokered by Germany and its allies in 2015, had averted the risk of an arms race in the region for the time being. He added that Berlin counted on talks to resume soon, allowing for a diplomatic resolution of the conflict in light of the region’s severe challenges, such as the fight against extremist group Islamic State, the Syrian War, the impact of climate change and the demographic development. “A profound fight among neighbors is actually the last thing anyone needs in this situation,” the foreign minister, who will soon meet his Saudi Arabian colleague, Adel Al-Jubeir, said.
...

Article goes on to explain the German commercial interests at stake.

Bit unfair to Trump as nearly all those arms deals he boasted about are an Obama legacy. It's also not like the nuclear deal with Iran deescalated there other activities. Rather the reverse in fact as Iran made large gains in Syria and Iraq. All this alarmed the Saudis who were left feeling the US was abandoning them. Hence the flurry of arms deals/bribery. You could also argue this led to greater Saudi aggression such as the war in Yemen.

 

[nuffsaid]

The "other" ME regimes that have been funnelling billions to ISIS without the threat of having their relations heads chopped off?

Well yeah, exactly, but I just posted what I heard on the radio.

 

[CrabbedOne]

The "other" ME regimes that have been funnelling billions to ISIS without the threat of having their relations heads chopped off?

Billions is certainly inaccurate.

This is roughly how IS is funded:

On CNN Inside the $2 billion ISIS war machine

To be more detailed:

Linky.

We know a lot about this as nerdy IS keeps very detailed records and they've frequently been captured. The numbers and revenue sources vary over time as illustrated above. It's at heart a very grabby rentier state. The big lasting revenue base is the population of Mosul. That's where IS ran its finances from not Raqqa. It'll likely still be operating at a mafia level there after the city falls. That's what happened last time. IS is deeply embedded in the Mosul area with important legacy assets from Saddam's Deep State having joined. The city was key to his sanction busting smuggling operations.

IS does have some donor funding but no authority I've read on this thinks that's been important to the organisation now known as IS. CAT above has IS's income in 2015 via donations at about 5% or $50 million. It's certainly not reflected in IS's political choices. It's an organisation that's uniquely belligerent about the Sunni powers. Uniquely amongst Salafi-Jihadi groups it really can afford to be.

Note the more significant kidnapping (K&R) part. This is a big source for militant groups in MENA and here they do undoubtedly interface with state actors buying back their citizens. The US and stingy Brits do not pay up (in theory) but nearly everybody else does. The Qataris are particularly prominent in such deals often negotiating with AQ. As is the case over the Syrian Four Towns deal that's linked to that massive payment to the Iranians. I recall they also interceded on behalf of LAF soldiers kidnapped by IS and UN peacekeepers taken by AQ.

The Qataris are probably the least discriminating and irresponsible Gulf actor with state funds. But it's not the country of eighty people tinkering with Salafi-Jihadis that really pisses off our other Gulfie chums it's the MB domestically and Iran. The latter is particularly worrying to Princes who rule Shia populations. To a large extent this is about domestic dissent. Even hyping Iran as a sectarian actor is partly about keeping a potentially revolutionary mob directed away from the palace gates and bugging out about the Safavids and treacherous Rafida.

 

[CrabbedOne]

In TAC The Qatar Crisis

The Qatar crisis soon may become even more dangerous:

Turkey’s parliament is expected to fast-track on Wednesday a draft bill allowing its troops to be deployed to a Turkish military base in Qatar, officials from the ruling AK Party and the nationalist opposition said.

The move appears to support the Gulf Arab country as it faces diplomatic and trade isolation from some of the biggest Middle Eastern powers.​

Meanwhile, Qatar is negotiating with both Iran and Turkey for food and water supplies in response to the Saudi-Emirati-led attempt to blockade and isolate the country. Iran’s foreign minister is in Ankara to meet with President Erdogan today. Both governments have an incentive to help Qatar out of its present jam. Iran stands to gain influence and improve its ties with Qatar while frustrating the designs of the Saudis and Emiratis, and Turkey has an interest in keeping Qatar’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood in place, and both have their own reasons to be opposed to Saudi-led power plays in any case.
...

That is not how this was intended to go.

 

[elbows]

If they didnt see Turkey getting involved as a possibility then I dont know what to say.

 

[teqniq]

 

[teqniq]

The guy who wrote this piece has done extensive research into the use of bots on Twitter with particular reference to Bahrain.

Analysis | Hacking, bots and information wars in the Qatar spat

 

[J.C.Decaux]

.

Oh look;



Hamas today criticised statements made by Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Al-Jubeir that Qatar should stop backing the Palestinian resistance movement as a condition to ending the rift with its neighbours.

In a statement, the movement said:

Hamas is a legitimate resistance movement against the Zionist occupation, which represents the central enemy of the Arab and Islamic nations, especially Hamas.

Yesterday evening, Al-Jubeir told journalists on a visit to France that Qatar was undermining the Palestinian Authority and Egypt in its support of Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood.

“We don’t think this is good. Qatar has to stop these policies so that it can contribute to stability in the Middle East.”

In response, Hamas said: “It is no secret to anyone how the Zionist enemy exploits such statements to commit more violations and crimes against our people and our land and our sanctities and the right of Jerusalem and the Al-Aqsa Mosque.”

Read: Saudi says that Qatar must stop supporting Hamas to restore ties

The movement stressed that Al-Jubeir’s statements violate international laws and Arab and Islamic positions which emphasise the right of the Palestinian people to resist and struggle to liberate their land and holy sites.Hamas called on the brothers in Saudi Arabia to stop these statements that harm the kingdom and its positions on the issue of the Palestinian people and their legitimate rights.

 

[coley]

Billions is certainly inaccurate.

This is roughly how IS is funded:

On CNN Inside the $2 billion ISIS war machine

To be more detailed:
View attachment 108685
Linky.

We know a lot about this as nerdy IS keeps very detailed records and they've frequently been captured. The numbers and revenue sources vary over time as illustrated above. It's at heart a very grabby rentier state. The big lasting revenue base is the population of Mosul. That's where IS ran its finances from not Raqqa. It'll likely still be operating at a mafia level there after the city falls. That's what happened last time. IS is deeply embedded in the Mosul area with important legacy assets from Saddam's Deep State having joined. The city was key to his sanction busting smuggling operations.

IS does have some donor funding but no authority I've read on this thinks that's been important to the organisation now known as IS. CAT above has IS's income in 2015 via donations at about 5% or $50 million. It's certainly not reflected in IS's political choices. It's an organisation that's uniquely belligerent about the Sunni powers. Uniquely amongst Salafi-Jihadi groups it really can afford to be.

Note the more significant kidnapping (K&R) part. This is a big source for militant groups in MENA and here they do undoubtedly interface with state actors buying back their citizens. The US and stingy Brits do not pay up (in theory) but nearly everybody else does. The Qataris are particularly prominent in such deals often negotiating with AQ. As is the case over the Syrian Four Towns deal that's linked to that massive payment to the Iranians. I recall they also interceded on behalf of LAF soldiers kidnapped by IS and UN peacekeepers taken by AQ.

The Qataris are probably the least discriminating and irresponsible Gulf actor with state funds. But it's not the country of eighty people tinkering with Salafi-Jihadis that really pisses off our other Gulfie chums it's the MB domestically and Iran. The latter is particularly worrying to Princes who rule Shia populations. To a large extent this is about domestic dissent. Even hyping Iran as a sectarian actor is partly about keeping a potentially revolutionary mob directed away from the palace gates and bugging out about the Safavids and treacherous Rafida.

Fair enough, meant 'millions' in private donations, Lang day, but for "private donations" read supported and aided by the house of Saud, they have been caught ( or finally exposed) as practising two way betting.