Researchers claim that 'whole nation 'could speak Welsh' within 300 years'

[editor]

Interesting stuff, although I failed to be fully convinced...

Almost everyone in Wales will be able to speak Welsh within the next 300 years, according to new research.

Scientists in New Zealand have studied the language and say there is no danger of it dying out.

The study, published in The Royal Society, also predicts 74% of the population will be proficient Welsh speakers by the year 2300.

There have been fears traditional Welsh-speaking communities are under threat.

In 2018 a survey suggested the number of people able to speak the language was on the rise, with 874,700 people saying they could speak Welsh, up from 726,600 people in 2008.

Whole nation 'could speak Welsh' within 300 years

New Zealand scientists say while the language will "thrive" it will remain fragile for the next 100 years.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[a_chap]

"Almost everyone in Wales will be able to speak Welsh within the next 300 years, according to new research."

I've heard it's a difficult language but, really, 300 years to learn? Goodness me...

 

[two sheds]

I thought 'whole nation' referred to UK so the Welsh were planning an invasion.

 

[editor]

I thought 'whole nation' referred to UK so the Welsh were planning an invasion.

'Invading'? We would only be taking back what was stolen from us!

Welsh people could be most ancient in UK, DNA suggests

Welsh people could lay claim to be the most ancient Britons, according to scientists who have drawn up a genetic map of the British Isles.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[maomao]

Due to global warming and nuclear war the remaining landmass will be a few square miles and the population will be in double figures though.

And if the language develops in a normal way it will only be partially intelligible to today's Welsh speakers.

 

[redsquirrel]

Jesus, they are fitting to two points

We use the 1991 data to define the initial condition (table 1) and we then use the 2005 and 2014 data to fit the model using least squares to give 𝛽BI=0.0510yr−1,βBI=0.0510 yr−1,𝛽IP=0.0969yr−1βIP=0.0969 yr−1 (figure 3)

I know they are just using Welsh as a sort of positive control but even so

 

[Funky_monks]

It wouldn't surprise me with the amount of resource put into Welsh language development.

When I was living there, it was reasonably trendy for young people to speak it, which has to help (however that was nearly 20 years ago now)

 

[two sheds]

'Invading'? We would only be taking back what was stolen from us!

Welsh people could be most ancient in UK, DNA suggests

Welsh people could lay claim to be the most ancient Britons, according to scientists who have drawn up a genetic map of the British Isles.

www.bbc.co.uk

True enough, but just leave Bristol alone - that was Cornish.

 

[Brixton Hatter]

Fe ddylen ni ei wneud. Dim ond i gythruddo'r gamwn.

 

[tim]

I thought 'whole nation' referred to UK so the Welsh were planning an invasion.

There are dedicated squads of ex-miners secretly undermining the linchpins of English power and identity.

 

[Proper Tidy]

It'll all be as second language though won't it, a cultural and class signifier, basically pontcanna across all of wales, not an actually existing organic language. Latin. It's already becoming like that, cache to english speakers sending their kids to welsh language medium schools and all that. Be far more interested in how successful welsh will be in retaining its first language status in the areas it's been beaten back to

 

[editor]

It'll all be as second language though won't it, a cultural and class signifier, basically pontcanna across all of wales, not an actually existing organic language. Latin. It's already becoming like that, cache to english speakers sending their kids to welsh language medium schools and all that. Be far more interested in how successful welsh will be in retaining its first language status in the areas it's been beaten back to

Welsh is first language to many Welsh people from all classes.

 

[Proper Tidy]

Welsh is first language to many Welsh people from all classes.

A diminishing number though which is my point (and most first language welsh speakers are w/c fwiw)

 

[editor]

A diminishing number though which is my point (and most first language welsh speakers are w/c fwiw)

What are you basing that claim on?

The language has been growing slowly for some time now and in some areas there's always been a lot of people using Welsh as their first language.

'Encouraging' survey suggests rise in Welsh language speakers

Survey suggests the number of Welsh language speakers in the last decade has increased.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[two sheds]

You'd hope that online translations would make it easier for minority language speakers - running Brixton Hatter's sentence through online translator made it instantly clear, including gammon

 

[UnderOpenSky]

I quite like it. I work in Wales a lot and always find it fascinating when people I work with switch when speaking to each other. Interestingly to my ears those who speak it as a first language, the "English" they speak seems to have a less strong Welsh accent.

 

[editor]

I quite like it. I work in Wales a lot and always find it fascinating when people I work with switch when speaking to each other. Interestingly to my ears those who speak it as a first language, the "English" they speak seems to have a less strong Welsh accent.

It's not unusual to hear someone sounding very English indeed before they switch to fluent Welsh!

 

[Proper Tidy]

What are you basing that claim on?

The language has been growing slowly for some time now and in some areas there's always been a lot of people using Welsh as their first language.

'Encouraging' survey suggests rise in Welsh language speakers

Survey suggests the number of Welsh language speakers in the last decade has increased.

www.bbc.co.uk

Every time there is a census or study the numbers of people speaking welsh as first language falls. Total numbers increase because of its growth as a second language (adults) or a school language (kids). It'll end up like irish. You are right that in some areas there are a lot of people using welsh as first language, but there used to be more of those areas and in the future there will be less.

 

[editor]

Every time there is a census or study the numbers of people speaking welsh as first language falls.

Have you a current link for this please?

 

[Proper Tidy]

Have you a current link for this please?

Can't find the piece I wanted to link to, best I can do is this one from nation(alist) which uses the term 'anglicisation'

The census hides the true decline of the Welsh language - it needs to be changed

Abraham Somers At every decade since 1891 the inhabitants of Wales have been asked if they can speak Welsh. Ever since, the question has been used to judge the health of the Welsh Language. During the 20th century, the census showed a steep drop from just under one million Welsh speakers to...

nation.cymru

It's very noticeable the shift to welsh becoming a (second) language of the middle class in large parts of wales though. The pontcannisation of welsh.

 

[editor]

Can't find the piece I wanted to link to, best I can do is this one from nation(alist) which uses the term 'anglicisation'

The census hides the true decline of the Welsh language - it needs to be changed

Abraham Somers At every decade since 1891 the inhabitants of Wales have been asked if they can speak Welsh. Ever since, the question has been used to judge the health of the Welsh Language. During the 20th century, the census showed a steep drop from just under one million Welsh speakers to...

nation.cymru

It's very noticeable the shift to welsh becoming a (second) language of the middle class in large parts of wales though. The pontcannisation of welsh.

There's also a big shift in the amount of young people learning Welsh.

 

[Proper Tidy]

There's also a big shift in the amount of young people learning Welsh.

Yeah I don't disagree and not knocking people learning (i've started a few times and stop cos of lack of time and stuff, still hope to learn at some point), but it is welsh as a second language. And in that sense it's thriving. In the same way that irish has thrived.

 

[editor]

Yeah I don't disagree and not knocking people learning (i've started a few times and stop cos of lack of time and stuff, still hope to learn at some point), but it is welsh as a second language. And in that sense it's thriving. In the same way that irish has thrived.

I'm not so sure they're directly comparable.

The 2016 Census returns, published this week, contain bad news for the Irish language, with a decline across all significant categories: daily speakers of Irish outside the education system and knowledge of and use of Irish in the Gaeltacht. The fall in the Gaeltacht is particularly dramatic – an 11 per cent drop in daily speakers outside the education system within the past five years – and provides further confirmation of the decline of Irish in its traditional heartland, a change which has been documented extensively in recent years.

Census shows we must rethink our approach to Irish and the Gaeltacht

There are now more ‘new speakers’ of Irish committed to the language than there are native speakers in the Gaeltacht

www.irishtimes.com

 

[Proper Tidy]

I'm not so sure they're directly comparable.

Census shows we must rethink our approach to Irish and the Gaeltacht

There are now more ‘new speakers’ of Irish committed to the language than there are native speakers in the Gaeltacht

www.irishtimes.com

See I think it's exactly the same. Problem is stats for welsh speakers relies pretty much exclusively on census which just asks can you speak welsh. Not do you speak it daily, do you speak it at home, do you speak it as primary language etc.

Anyway it is what it is and I can't speak it so wtf do I know

 

[JimW]

I quite like it. I work in Wales a lot and always find it fascinating when people I work with switch when speaking to each other. Interestingly to my ears those who speak it as a first language, the "English" they speak seems to have a less strong Welsh accent.

That was my experience of native Scots Gaelic speakers, English often more of a Scandi-esque lilt than stereotypically Scots, not surprising if you think about it.

 

[William of Walworth]

I know basic Welsh to the point of being able to speak simple sentances, and being able to understand the gist of WTF Welsh speakers in pubs are talking about.

I went to school in Gogland , and I picked up SO much Welsh there, even though most of my fellow pupils on the North Wales coast were Mancs and Scousers -- vast numbers of their families moved to Wales to live .....

 

[kabbes]

Jesus, they are fitting to two points
I know they are just using Welsh as a sort of positive control but even so

And there will obviously be no social changes in the next 300 years that might interfere with the model either.

 

[petee]

Fi jyst hedfan i mewn o Pittsburgh a waw mae fy mreichiau wedi blino!

 

[Pickman's model]

Interesting stuff, although I failed to be fully convinced...

Whole nation 'could speak Welsh' within 300 years

New Zealand scientists say while the language will "thrive" it will remain fragile for the next 100 years.

www.bbc.co.uk

Tbh the whole nation could speak Welsh in 18 months if they really wanted to

Granted, only at a 'two pints please', 'when is the next train to Borth' sort of way - they wouldn't be able to discuss the intricacies of Christian theology.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I reckon it’s bobbins and what’s more I will put my money where my mouth is; if this turns out to be correct, a tenner to the server fund!