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Peak Oil (was "petroleum geologist explains US war policy")

Good posts elbows. It is interesting how the political establishment and media are failing/refusing to link economic stagnation with peak energy production. I see this as willful blindness rather thatn de liberate deception - so much instiutional power,wealth, status and research is invensted in the conventional neo-liberal growth discourse that its in thier interests to keep on believing in business as usual. I keep hearing the mantra that economic growth is driven by 'innovation' - despite a wealth of pretty undeniable evidence that it is intrinsicly linked to acccess to cheap energy.

I think the reality of the situation has yet to really sink in and we are pretty much at this point -

8686.jpg
 
I keep hearing the mantra that economic growth is driven by 'innovation' - despite a wealth of pretty undeniable evidence that it is intrinsicly linked to acccess to cheap energy.

Cheers. But when I hear people saying this mantra these days, I am not exactly convinced that they believe what they are saying, they don't exactly attempt to add substance to their position and their confidence seems paper-thin. Some may still be in complete denial but Im tempted to believe that for many the penny dropped some years ago and its a combination of other factors that keep them clinging to the old stuff in public. In brief, reasons not to go on about peak oil include:

Makes it harder to have an oil war with even vaguely plausible deniability.

Complete acceptance & talking about the reality could cause market & confidence collapse, price increase etc that otherwise would not arrive until the production reality on the ground reaches an ugly point. Admitting the reality could buy time for humans to solve the problem in a sustainable way, but will rob time from the current status quo, something they don't want to happen until it cannot be delayed a moment longer.

The consequences of peak oil on political policy will probably make todays austerity look like a picnic, so they aren't keen to let the masses know about this until they have to. At least see how we get on with the present austerity as a starting point, see if people can bear the burden of a steady decline rather than suddenly having a huge weight dropped on them.

They may think its going to be rather handy to have someone/some country to blame for our plight at various moments, and they don't want to throw away future options by being totally honest now.

They don't want people to take the sort of short-term panic response measures that some percentage of the population would probably indulge in if the story of peak oil was turned into scary headline in a big way for a sustained period of time. e.g. even though its silly I would not want to bet against some people queuing up at petrol stations etc and creating unnecessary short-term problems.

And of course yes there are all the ideological reasons why people are not going to give up their growth god in a timely fashion.
 
According to that article, in order to get the population down to a sustainable 1 billion in the timeframe laid out would require a WW I and WW II every year in 'excess deaths' up to the target date. :eek:

It's important to clarify that the author is not advocating such a thing.

This model is intended to give some clarity to that premonition of trouble. It carries no judgment about what ought to be, it merely describes what might be. The model is likewise no crystal ball. It offers no predictions and no insights into the details of what will happen. It presents the simple arithmetic consequences of one set of assumptions, albeit assumptions that I personally feel have a reasonable probability of being fulfilled.
 
It's important to clarify that the author is not advocating such a thing.
it's also fairly important IMO to point out that the author appears to be self taught on the subject, and certainly doesn't list anything remotely relevant in his background that would qualify him IMO to have his views on this subject treated with anything past mild interest.

Reading that is like reading a first year essay on the subject from someone who's only got a partial understanding of the stuff he's supposed to be writing the essay about, but has convinced himself that he's seen something that all the experts have missed.

here in picture form is the key point he misses, and that most proponents of this Malthusian rubbish seem to miss.

malthusian rubbish.jpg .
 
LOL, has this whole thread essentially been a learned bunfight between peakers and cornucopians? Pessimists and optimists? FWIW I'm not very optimistic. Why? Look at climate change. More to the point, look at what governments and societies around the globe, particularly in the poor world has (not) done to mitigate and prepare for more "mundane" disaster triggers such as floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, not to mention communicable diseases. It doesn't exactly fill me with hope.
 
The thing is that I'm in no way suggesting peak oil isn't happening, or that it's not a problem, same with population growth to some extent, I'm just pointing out that there's no reason at all why it has to be anything like the problem that some are making it out to be, and that instead of going around scaring the shit out of people they should spend some time learning about the potential solutions to the problem then help implement them.

On a scale of part of the problem vs part of the solution, I see people like paul chefurka as more part of the problem than part of the solution at the moment. If he and his fellow travellers wanted to stop doing chicken licken impressions they could potentially have something useful to contribute to solving the problem instead of heading any further into 911 troofer style territory they're currently skirting. A quick google though shows that this particular guy seems to like the sound of his own voice a bit much to be likely to actually stop to go and learn about the subject area properly.
 
Sure, and I didn't mean to suggest you do think peak oil is bogus - it's what happens after that's the bone of contention. Do we adapt, or do we decline, at least for a while? FWIW I think suggestions of a catastrophic decline are way OTT, but I do think that given our recent global history wrt how we produce and consume, we're in deep deep shit.

That's my technical understanding of it ;)

ETA: never heard of Chefurka before. My most often visited sites would probably be John Robb's Global Guerillas and that Russian American dude whose name escapes me atm.
 
It's important to clarify that the author is not advocating such a thing.

I didn't state that he was advocating such a thing, i was merely re-quoting and contextualising his figures :)

(alarming nonetheless though...)
 
An independent thinker you mean?
that's one way of putting it. He doesn't go in for anything in the way of evidence to back up his assertions either though, which makes it a bit less likely that he's going to be right IMO.

Yeah right.
Nice crayons.
:)

Now... about those efficiency improvements...
have you read your link?

Further, fuel use declines if increased efficiency is coupled with a green tax that keeps the cost of use the same (or higher).[3]
note that it doesn't actually need to be a green tax, it can be anything that increases the price to offset the gain in efficiency eg resource contraints.
 
I'm with free spirit on this one. Not just because I'm a hopeless optimist but because dense urban populations are massively more fuel efficient than scattered rural ones, and intensive agriculture is more fuel efficient than small local producers. The survivalist/primitivist/Malthusian fantasists are envisioning a way of life that is only sustainable on a tiny scale but which uses resources that could sustain a much higher population. Great for the rich, shit for everyone else.

And technological change on the timescale we require is possible, if the will is there. E-Ink has already been developed to the point where it can be used in a laptop with a battery life measured in days rather than hours. There's no need for a lot of international travel since video-conferencing. And there's masses of efficiency savings to be had from a properly designed public transport system.***

It needs the political will, and use of the masses of spare capacity available right now - but it doesn't need a miracle.
.
.
.

***ie one where you don't have private companies closing down the 'unprofitable' routes and then suddenly finding that more and more routes become 'unprofitable' because the passengers from the now-closed routes can't get to them any more. And 'profitable' for whom exactly? Private companies or the society which requires a decent public transport system as an economic necessity. :mad: /tangent
 
you'd love this guys website YMU, it's chock full of wrongness. Such as this gem...

By the time the world oil market has lost half its volume, say in 12 years, they will have lost 40% of their current oil requirements.
Unless they make unprecedented changes to their food systems, they stand to lose 25% to 35% of their food supply in the next 12 years.
It sounds apocalyptic, but it’s what the numbers show.

The reason for such a drastic loss is embedded in the following graph:

TonForTonAvg.png

Now, google threw up an oddity here, which shows that this graph came from this thread on democraticunderground, which states that the graph comes from
national data for total grain production in tonnes from the FAO and national data for oil consumption in tonnes from BP going back to 1965

producing the following graph that's clearly the same one used by Cherurka above
TonForTonAvg.png


Someone obviously got a wee bit mixed up about the correlation / causation thing, unless they can explain how the level of oil used for absolutely everything in a country eg driving private cars, should somehow impact on the food production of that country. Just because total food production and total oil consumption levels happen to have risen at roughly similar levels (+/-~10%), doesn't mean that a reduction in oil consumption of 40% would result in 25-30% reduction in food output.

If this is the level of logic being used by this guy, I really don't think I'd be going round quoting his pieces for any purpose other than ridicule.
 
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An independent thinker you mean? Check out his website. I see that the item I linked to appears in his "Abandon Hope, All Ye Who Enter Here" section. :D

Yeah right.
Nice crayons.
:)

Now... about those efficiency improvements...

ETA
Are you suggesting that carrying capacity can be doubled by 'efficiency improvements'?
What did you have in mind?
well, we currently throw away over 50% of the food grown for use in this country (supply chain and domestic waste combined). That could be a starting point.

We could not do stuff like exporting x tonnes of a food and importing x tonnes of the same food.

It's pretty much guaranteed that the vehicle fleet on the road in 20 years time will be in the region of twice as efficient as the current fleet simply from the old gas guzzlers being taken out of the fleet as they reach the end of their lifes and replaced with new ones at current fuel efficiency levels, never mind ongoing improvements in that time.

that sort of thing really.

Plenty of low hanging fruit still their to be plucked before we ought to be getting into 'the end is nigh' territory. Yes, we could do with plucking it a lot faster and not pretending there's no looming energy crisis at all, but that's a damn site different to the sort of drivel this guy you quoted is spouting.

btw - I'm not necessarily suggesting carrying capacity can be doubled as such, although I'm also not saying it couldn't be, I wasn't putting a number on it. I was merely making the point that the graph being used to show die off is far too simplistic, and has zero relevance to the situation with human population growth vs resource depletion as it makes no allowance for waste of resources or consequent efficiency potential.

The graph derives from stuff like overgrazing of cattle on defined areas of land without additional nutrient input potential. Cows aren't particularly wasteful creatures, there's not much wasted between ground and mouth, so not much chance of waste reduction or efficiency savings from the cows if the population increases beyond the carrying capacity of the land at the level of grazing the cows need to sustain themselves. We on the other hand are currently incredibly wasteful in our use of resources of all types, meaning there is huge scope for increasing the effective carrying capacity of the planet by us simply being less wasteful of it's resources.

Or, to put it another way, there is an alternative to seeing 6 billion people die off as this guy seems to be postulating to be a likely scenario. It involves simply reducing the energy, food and resource use of each individual person to a level at which the planet can sustain all however many billion of us are around at the time.

Given these 2 options, why is it that people like this chose to bang on so much about the 6 billion people dying type option instead of the other perfectly viable option that doesn't involve most of the planet being wiped out?
 
The other thing that bugs me about this line of argument is it is letting the real culprits off the hook for the massive commodity price bubbles we've seen over the last few years.

The culprit I'm talking about should be fairly obvious from this graph when considering that the 2008 price spike took place at a point when supply was exceeding demand.

maize speculation.JPG

•Financial speculators now dominate the market, holding over 60 per cent of some markets compared to just 12 per cent 15 years ago.
•In the last 5 years alone, the total assets of financial speculators in these markets have nearly doubled from $65 billion in 2006 to $126 billion in 2011. This money is purely speculative, with none of it being invested in agriculture, yet it is now 20 times more than the total amount of aid money given globally for agriculture.
•The nature of traders in the market has changed with the introduction of commodity index funds, high frequency and algorithmic trading and an enormous growth in opaque, deregulated ‘over-the-counter’ trading.

IMO this is a case where correlation definitely does imply causation, particularly when there is a clear mechanism for that causation to take place. If we're going to avoid having speculators massively inflating any minor commodity price increases that would naturally have occurred, or even creating them from nothing where they'd not have occurred, we really need some serious limits to be placed on this speculation within the markets on the essentials that people need to live on.

http://www.wdm.org.uk/sites/default/files/Broken-markets.pdf
 
Yeah, I see it has been sabotaged edited to avoid misunderstanding about how the theory should be applied!
:mad:

See the ETA to my earlier post.
clarified for you...;)

pred-prey.gph1.gif


here's another ecology type graph that die off merchants could maybe consider nicking to demonstrate the inevitability of the imminent mass die off of our species. Surely it's only a matter of time before our natural predators (which can be extended to include disease etc) catch up with our massive population spike and wipe 6 billion or so of us from the planet.

I mean look at how closely the growth curve for prey matches our recent population growth rates - that can't be a coincidence can it? And if the population overshoot graph must be universally applicable then surely so should the predator prey relationship graph.

;)
 
I'm with free spirit on this one. Not just because I'm a hopeless optimist but because dense urban populations are massively more fuel efficient than scattered rural ones, and intensive agriculture is more fuel efficient than small local producers. The survivalist/primitivist/Malthusian fantasists are envisioning a way of life that is only sustainable on a tiny scale but which uses resources that could sustain a much higher population. Great for the rich, shit for everyone else.

And technological change on the timescale we require is possible, if the will is there. E-Ink has already been developed to the point where it can be used in a laptop with a battery life measured in days rather than hours. There's no need for a lot of international travel since video-conferencing. And there's masses of efficiency savings to be had from a properly designed public transport system.***

It needs the political will, and use of the masses of spare capacity available right now - but it doesn't need a miracle.

***ie one where you don't have private companies closing down the 'unprofitable' routes and then suddenly finding that more and more routes become 'unprofitable' because the passengers from the now-closed routes can't get to them any more. And 'profitable' for whom exactly? Private companies or the society which requires a decent public transport system as an economic necessity. :mad: /tangent

I hope you're not referring to any of the posters when you mention survivalist/primitivist/Malthusian fantasists. Besides I'm pretty sure the permaculture crowd would take umbrage at being called fantasists.
 
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